Every fantasy manager knows that schedule strength can greatly impact fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better.
My matchup points system uses various fantasy points and allowed metrics as a base. Then, variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass-blocking/pass-rush strength are added. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable.
Keep in mind that these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a strong yards per attempt (YPA) allowed but a low PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.
Over the years, I have found that the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is on the outer margins, which this article will cover. It will highlight players with a matchup points total of 80 or higher and detail those with a total of 20 or lower.
Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s move on to the best and worst matchups for Week 10. The list below shows the entire scope of players with favorable and unfavorable matchups. I’ll highlight players from each positional list, beginning with quarterbacks.
Metrics are via TruMedia/PFF, Stathead or NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted. Point references are in PPR unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, PIT (vs. CIN):
Most fantasy managers won’t even consider starting Rodgers after he posted a season low 6.44 points last week. Don’t be one of those managers. Cincinnati is 27th in vertical FPPG allowed since Week 7, and that’s not even the worst of the Bengals’ coverage metrics. Consider Rodgers an upside QB1 play this week.
Caleb Williams, CHI (at MIN):
The Vikings defense has allowed 11.3 FPPG on vertical passes the past four weeks — by far the highest number in that category in that span. Williams has scored 25+ points in two straight games. This matchup could make it three in a row.
Running backs
Jaylen Warren, PIT (vs. CIN):
The Bengals have allowed a ridiculously high 28.3 FPPG on planned rushes since Week 7. Warren has posted 11 or more carries in every game he’s played in this season. If he gets that work volume this week, Warren has a shot at setting a season-high in points.
Woody Marks, HOU (at TEN):
My Week 10 review details why Marks can be relied upon for the rest of the season, despite some fantasy volatility this season. This week, he gets a Tennessee rush defense that has allowed the fourth-highest yardage total on planned rush plays since Week 7.
Wide receivers
DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, CHI (at MIN):
The Vikings’ vertical pass coverage woes go beyond what was detailed in the Caleb Williams section above. Minnesota ranks next to last in vertical yards allowed since Week 7 and is dead last in both yards per attempt and touchdowns at this depth. It’s the type of matchup that could deliver a second straight game of 20+ points for Odunze. Moore could also bounce back after a shocking goose-egg point total last week.
Tight ends
Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith, PIT (vs. CIN):
It’s impossible to overstate just how abysmal the Bengals’ tight end coverage has been this year. Cincinnati has allowed a mind-numbingly high 32.9 FPPG to tight ends over the past four weeks. Freiermuth and Smith won’t achieve upper-tier TE1 value because they are splitting the tight end targets. What they will offer is mid- to low-tier TE1 value with upside potential. They deserve starter consideration this week.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield, TB (at BUF):
Mayfield just posted his third game with 20+ points, but he combined for just 15.2 points in the two games before Week 10. Buffalo has shutdown coverage metrics versus tight ends, strong cornerback coverage numbers and is very good against vertical passes. Consider other options to Mayfield if they are available.
Dak Prescott, DAL (at LV):
The Raiders are a dismal team overall, but don’t blame that on their pass coverage. Las Vegas has the best tight end coverage metrics over the past month, and its vertical pass coverage numbers aren’t far behind. Prescott has scored only 22 points over his past two games combined. This matchup could generate another subpar point total for him.
Jared Goff, DET (at PHI):
Dan Campbell’s play-calling helped the Lions offense get back in gear last week, but so did a very favorable matchup against Washington. The Eagles showed on Monday night just how well their pass defense is playing right now. It’s a matchup that should make fantasy managers review other viable quarterback options if available.
Running backs
Travis Etienne, JAX (vs. LAC):
Etienne is on a two-game streak with 15+ points, but he scored fewer than 10 points in each of the three games before that. The Chargers defense is top-10 in FPPG allowed versus planned rush plays over the past month and has outstanding vertical coverage metrics. This could be another single-digit point game for Etienne, so plan your lineups accordingly.
Kenneth Walker, SEA (vs. LAR):
Walker has racked up 67 scrimmage plays over his past five games, yet didn’t score 10+ points in any of them. The Rams have allowed only 8.2 points per game on planned rush plays since Week 7. That’s a combination that says K9 should be slated for bench duty in most leagues.
Quinshon Judkins, CLE (vs. BAL):
Nothing shows how bad the Browns offense is like Judkins getting 24 touches last week and managing only 10.5 points. Baltimore’s defense is back to its shutdown ways and has allowed only 11.3 FPPG on planned rush plays the past month. These trends might mean Judkins scores fewer than 10 points this week.
Wide receivers
Jameson Williams, DET (at PHI):
“Jamo” led all wide receivers in short pass production this past week. He might be one of the best players you can trade for in terms of rest-of-season value. But this week, he plays an Eagles secondary with two cornerbacks (Quinyon Mitchell and Adoree’ Jackson) who have a yards per target allowed of 6.0 or lower in the past month. Williams may have a low ceiling in Week 11 against that caliber of coverage.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews, BAL (at CLE):
Andrews has only five catches over the past two games, but two of those went for touchdowns — not a sustainable percentage play versus a Browns defense that has allowed only seven completions for 78 yards on passes to tight ends since Week 7.
Jake Ferguson, DAL (at LV):
I’ll start this by saying that it’s probably not a good idea to sit Ferguson. Having noted that, Ferguson has scored only 8 points over the past two games. He’s also facing a Raiders defense that has allowed the fewest TE FPPG over the previous four weeks. Ferguson has earned the benefit of the doubt for a start this week, just don’t be shocked if he ends up posting another disappointing point total.
