FRIDAY AM: While it may seem too close to call, there’s buzz that Lionsgate’s Now You See Me: Now You Don’t may have the best shot at No. 1 this weekend after collecting $2.1 million in total Thursday previews. At least that was the confidence last night from a handful of sources. Now You See Me 2 did $1.75M previews back in June 2016.
Paramount’s $110M redo of The Running Man grossed $1.9M across 3,000 theaters during Thursday night shows. Both Now You See Me 3 and Running Man are eyeing $20M+. Critics on Rotten Tomatoes have similar opinions for both titles, though Running Man has the edge, 64% to 59%.
The advantage that Now You See Me 3 has is its PG-13 rating compared with Running Man‘s R. Now You See Me 3 is looking to be both a date night movie while also appealing to families. The previous two movies made anywhere from 67% to 80% of their global box office abroad. Note, Lionsgate is one of the sole motion picture studios that licenses out foreign to fund their productions. Now You See Me 3 cost north of net $90M before P&A.
Meanwhile, Running Man‘s previews are in line with that of Neon’s The Monkey, which did $1.9M in total previews before a $5.8M Friday and a three-day total of $14M. Running Man‘s previews are well below that of Tron Ares, another 1980s sci-fi series reboot, which saw a $14.4M Friday and a three-day of $33.2M when it bowed last month.
The original Running Man, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, opened in this same exact mid-November slot in 1987 with a No. 1 take of $8.1M (unadjusted for inflation). The movie finaled at $38.1M domestic and earned a B+ CinemaScore off a reported $27M production cost. The pic continued to hold No. 1 in its second weekend before ceding to Disney/Touchstone’s Three Men and a Baby over the Thanksgiving holiday. Running Man was the 30th highest-grossing movie of 1987 in a year that was led by Beverly Hills Cop ($153.6M), Platoon ($136.7M) and Fatal Attraction ($125.9M). Coming in the wake of summer 1987’s Predator, which at that time was Schwarzenegger’s highest-grossing movie of his career with $60M domestic, Running Man didn’t meet expectations, though its U.S.-Canada take was in line with previous Arnie movies like Commando, Conan the Barbarian and The Terminator.
Nonetheless, keep in mind that it’s a marathon not a sprint for both movies given that Thanksgiving is in two weeks.
20th Century Studios’ No. 1 pic of the week, Predator: Badlands, did an estimated $1.7M yesterday (off 26% from Wednesday) for a first-week tally of $53.2M. The Elle Fanning movie is expected to be down 60% in its second weekend, par for the genre.
