Selection Sunday is less than a month away, which means wins are at a premium and losses can knock teams out of College Football Playoff contention. It’s the best — and most stressful — time of the year.
Now, we won’t always be able to predict a shocking upset loss ahead of time. But we do know which games will matter most to the CFP selection committee when it comes to evaluating teams this weekend and beyond. For the record, Notre Dame’s trip to Pittsburgh just missed the cut (so I could opine about Duke and the state of the ACC race), but that would be a Playoff eliminator for the Irish were they to lose.
How much does Notre Dame game mean to Pittsburgh?
Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry preview the Notre Dame at Pittsburgh matchup in Week 12, discussing the quarterback matchup as well as Pat Narduzzi’s “wild” comments earlier in the week.
Here are the five most impactful Week 12 games, ranked by order of magnitude:
5. No. 24 South Florida at Navy
The CFP selection committee finally ranked a Group of 5 team in its Top 25 this week! South Florida checked in at No. 24, the highest-ranked of the top Group of 5 contenders. I had projected the Bulls to make the bracket (ahead of Tulane, Memphis, Tulane, JMU, etc.) because of its nonconference wins over Florida and Boise State and so-called “good” losses to Miami and Memphis. But, of course, USF would have to win the American to get a chance to be the G5 representative in the Playoff. And in order to win the American, you have to get to the championship game. There are five (!) American teams with one loss in conference play, including both USF and Navy. So, there’s a lot at stake in this one — for both teams.
Even though Blake Horvath, Navy’s do-everything quarterback, missed last week’s game against Notre Dame with an upper body injury, he’s considered likely to play in this matchup. Assuming he does, this should be a great quarterback duel, with Horvath on one side and the electric Byrum Brown on the other.
4. No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama
The Sooners have no margin for error now, and they know that. Their game last week against Tennessee was essentially a Playoff eliminator for both teams, and Oklahoma survived to advance to this week’s matchup. One-loss Alabama is not facing potential elimination, largely because the selection committee is treating the Tide as if the loss to Florida State didn’t happen (which is a little odd). Regardless, Alabama is sitting pretty at No. 4 in the committee’s rankings, so there’s a good bit of wiggle room were the Tide to lose down the stretch. At 7-2, Oklahoma has no such wiggle room.
Let’s use this week’s rankings as a guide. The Sooners were ranked 11th, but because of the requirement that the 12-team field include the five highest-ranked conference champions, they would not have made the bracket. They would have been the first team out, with Texas (which beat Oklahoma) into the field as the final at-large selection. It seems rather unlikely that the Sooners would stay close enough in contention with a third loss while being boxed out by Texas due to the head-to-head result (which would mean even a three-loss Texas would remain ahead of a three-loss Oklahoma). The good news for the Sooners? If they can figure out a way to win in Tuscaloosa, they’ve got a great chance to eventually make the Playoff, with remaining games against unranked Missouri and LSU (and teams above them in the rankings set to face off in the coming weeks).
QB matchup could make difference in OU vs. Bama
Joshua Perry and Nicole Auerbach preview Oklahoma vs. Alabama, looking at the quarterback matchup as well has how the Crimson Tide can attack the Sooners’ defense.
3. No. 19 Virginia at Duke
We’ve got to address the ACC chaos, and this feels like the right place to do it. This conference race is a total disaster. It’s nearly impossible to understand all the potential tiebreaker scenarios, so it’s hard to predict the ACC championship game matchup at this point. Five different ACC teams have one conference loss! And because of the myriad upsets we’ve seen in this league in recent weeks, it’s looking increasingly likely that the ACC is a one-bid league, with that one bid to the CFP coming because the Playoff requires automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions. That means it doesn’t matter if Virginia or Georgia Tech is ranked outside of the selection committee’s top 12; the ACC champion would essentially operate as a bid thief and knock an at-large team out of the bracket. It’ll be similar for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion (projected to be USF in this week’s bracket).
But … there is one potential ACC doomsday scenario that’s worth mentioning. What if the ACC champion isn’t one of the five highest-ranked conference champions? What if it’s Duke — a team that has four (!) losses but just one of those in league play — that wins the ACC? In that scenario, it’s possible Duke isn’t ranked at all — or is ranked behind two Group of 5 conference champions (presumably the American champion, which could be a Tulane team that beat Duke head-to-head, and Sun Belt champion JMU). This scenario is unlikely based on JMU’s schedule strength (the Dukes lost their only game against a Power 4 opponent), but it is within the realm of possibilities, and that fact alone is brutal for the ACC. And if things weren’t crazy enough, Miami still has a shot at an at-large bid!
Can Duke take advantage of chaotic ACC?
Joshua Perry and Nicole Auerbach give their “Imagine That” picks for the week, imagining a scenario in which Duke runs the table and makes the ACC Championship Game and another one in which Ole Miss falls to Florida.
2. No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC
The selection committee (rightfully) kept the Hawkeyes in its Top 25 this week, and that’s important for the Trojans. This game is now an opportunity for a quality win in the eyes of the committee (even if the Hawkeyes might then fall out of the rankings) — and it would keep USC alive in the Playoff race with a massive matchup against Oregon just one week away. The Trojans have been operating with their backs against the wall for a few weeks now, ever since they picked up their second loss of the season (to Notre Dame). So, this is nothing new, and it’s far better to get Iowa at home than have to play a must-win game at Kinnick. But as we learned last week, these Hawkeyes are a tough out, and they’ve given two of the nation’s best teams — Indiana and Oregon — absolute hell.
The Trojans will also want to root for Notre Dame in its game at Pitt this weekend. USC needs that to remain a high-quality loss, which means it should root for Notre Dame to make the 12-team field. I know, I know. It feels wrong to root for a rival, but the Irish winning out would undoubtedly help the Trojans.
Iowa’s run game could prove too much for USC
Vaughn Dalzell and Eric Froton preview this weekend’s matchup between Iowa and USC, where the Trojans’ rush defense could be vulnerable against the Hawkeyes running game.
1. No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
It’s a weekend of monumental matchups in SEC country, and none is bigger than this showdown in Athens. Georgia is coming off its most complete performance of the season in its win over Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a bye and two of its best offensive performances of the season so far. Arch Manning looks so much more confident and decisive than he did back in September, and the Longhorns’ serviceable run game makes a big difference, too. It’s a good thing that Texas is playing its best football now, because its final three-game stretch is not for the faint of heart. Two of the Longhorns’ remaining three games are against teams currently ranked in the top five by the committee.
If Texas beats either Georgia or Texas A&M, this team will have a fascinating Playoff resume. I’d argue the Longhorns would be the best-positioned of three-loss teams to make the 12-team field. They’d have a top-five win, two top-15ish wins (over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt) and played No. 1 Ohio State closer than anyone else all season. The Florida loss would remain a blemish on the resume, but this is already the committee’s second-highest two-loss team with that in the fold. If you add a good loss (to a top-five team) and one of the best wins anyone’s got (over a top-five team), that’s a formidable resume. And the head-to-head wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt could come into play if those teams are compared to one another on the bubble.
For Texas, that’s about as well-positioned a three-loss team could possibly be in this sport. Now, the Longhorns just have to go out there and pull off one of the upsets.
