Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves are looking to get back on track on Monday after a tough loss at home to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday night.
The Wolves are 8-5 overall, but they’re just 3-3 at home in the 2025-26 season heading into this matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.
It’s been a tough season for the Mavs, who are just 4-10 after they fought hard in an overtime win against the Portland Trail Blazers at home on Sunday. Cooper Flagg and company have been without Anthony Davis (calf) since late October.
Oddsmakers have set the Timberwolves as favorites in this matchup, but can they cover the spread?
Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this Western Conference battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Mavs Injury Report
Timberwolves Injury Report
Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best NBA props column why I’m fading DiVincenzo in this Western Conference clash:
After a strong start to the season shooting the 3-ball, Donte DiVincenzo has cooled off a bit over his last five games, making just one 3-pointer in four of those five matchups. He does have a game with five made 3s during that stretch, but I’m fading the Minnesota Timberwolves guard against Dallas.
DiVincenzo has just one game with double-digit 3-point attempts during this mini slump, and he’s shooting 26.5 percent from deep in those five games.
This is a tough matchup against a Dallas Mavericks team that ranks No. 2 in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers per game (11.5) and No. 5 in opponent 3-point percentage (33.7 percent).
DiVincenzo still has a big role for the Wolves, but he could be a solid value bet to fall short of this prop at +113. This season, the Wolves guard has five games with only one shot made from deep in them.
The Mavericks may end up being short-handed on the second night of a back-to-back, and while they have improved their OVER percentage, I think this is a spot to fade them.
Minnesota has been a better defensive team in recent seasons than it has been in the 2025-26 campaign, but it should be able to slow down a Mavs team that is 29th in the league in offensive rating and without Anthony Davis on Monday.
The Mavs are fourth in defensive rating, so they have been able to play some low-scoring and still stay in the game. Dallas has hit the UNDER in eight out of 14 games this season.
With this spread up in the 230s, I wouldn’t be shocked to see these teams fall just short. The Mavs have scored 232 or more combined points in just five games this season (including their last three).
The UNDER is 2-0 when Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back this season.
Pick: UNDER 231.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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