We’re almost three months into the NFL season, and the current pecking order is all kinds of unexpected. For the art historians in our readership, it’s a most postmodern playoff picture. And for the Owen Wilsons among us, this is something to “wow” about.
If the 2025 campaign ended right now, the New England Patriots would win the AFC East with a second-year quarterback. They’d snap a five-year first-place run from the Buffalo Bills, too. The Denver Broncos would win the AFC West — also with a second-year quarterback, also at the expense of sustained dominance (the Kansas City Chiefs have nine straight division titles). The Chicago Bears would win the NFC North with a first-time head coach, even though preseason oddsmakers had them at the bottom of the bunch. And several Super Bowl hopefuls (K.C., plus the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions) would be on the wrong side of the velvet rope.
Fortunately, the season does not end right now. Week 12 has a strong set of games for us to dig into, and most have meaningful implications on at least one side. We sorted the five biggest offerings through The Athletic’s predictive model. Here’s where we landed after 20,000 simulations for each outcome.
All times ET, all game odds via BetMGM, and all playoff chances via Austin Mock’s NFL projection tool as of Friday.
Week 12 Sunday viewing guide
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GameTimeTVStreaming
Steelers at Bears
1 p.m.
CBS
Colts at Chiefs
1 p.m.
CBS
Vikings at Packers
1 p.m.
Fox
Eagles at Cowboys
4:25 p.m.
Fox
Buccaneers at Rams
8:20 p.m.
NBC
In-market CBS and Fox games are free over the air. “Sunday Night Football” is free over the air on NBC and also streams on Peacock.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
Eagles’ No. 1 seed chances if they win: 63 percent
If they lose: 34 percent
Cowboys’ playoff chances if they win: 18 percent
If they lose: 4 percent
The league’s defending champions are somehow both messy and eminently stable. Superstar running back Saquon Barkley, the one who rushed for 2,000 yards last season, is down to an uninspiring 3.8 yards per carry. Lead wide receiver A.J. Brown, the one so physically imposing that he’s called “Swole Batman,” is publicly fading his own fantasy stock. And still, Philly is 3 1/2 games ahead of Dallas for the NFC East crown, with a terrifying defense that shows up each week. The Eagles lead the NFL in two critical success markers (turnovers and red zone conversions), and they have a full handful of wins against top-tier opponents (Chiefs, Lions, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
Nick Sirianni likes to establish the ground game, and Vic Fangio deploys a brusque pass rush. Home-field advantage through the playoffs will be vital for those efforts.
The Cowboys dug themselves into a cavernous pit with historically futile defense. But they can rack up touchdowns wholesale with the No. 2 scoring offense, and they hit Sunday with a 2-1-1 home record. A high-flying and frenetic upset would be their first step toward salvaging 2025. A loss all but takes them out of business. These teams met in the season opener, and Dallas put up 20 first-half points on the road before lightning storms stalled momentum and Philadelphia won 24-20.
4. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
Vikings’ playoff chances if they win: 6 percent
If they lose:
Packers’ NFC North chances if they win: 44 percent
If they lose: 23 percent
There are three viable NFC North champs right now, which makes every divisional game a must-win. Green Bay deserves respect for its solid defense and its league-best third-down conversion rate. But some skepticism is warranted after its last three outings: a home stumble to the Carolina Panthers, another home L to the Eagles, then a too-close-for-comfort comeback over the lowly New York Giants.
Minnesota has a reason to believe Sunday. Per TruMedia, the Vikings have stacked up 100+ rushing yards in three consecutive games, compared to two such performances across their first seven tries. Meanwhile, the Packers have allowed 100+ ground yards in three consecutive games after doing so just once in their first seven. “The North remembers,” and so does Aaron Jones. Green Bay’s No. 3 all-time rusher returns to Lambeau Field with spoiler status.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
Bucs’ NFC South chances if they win: 89 percent
If they lose: 80 percent
Rams’ No. 1 seed chances if they win: 43 percent
If they lose: 19 percent
One of two games between present division leaders. The Buccaneers start this week just a half-game ahead of the Panthers in the NFC South. Those two are still due for their pair of divisional meet-ups (Week 16 in Carolina, Week 18 in Tampa Bay). Our prediction model seems to be quite low on Dave Canales’ crew in favor of the Todd Bowles “krewe.” Most of that’s due to remaining schedules. Outside of the Panthers games, these Bucs face four teams currently well below .500 (Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins). Regardless, they won’t want to mess around with the NFC wild card jumble given the trio of contenders in both the North and West.
Behind an efficient Baker Mayfield and aggressive secondary, Tampa has just seven turnovers to 16 takeaways. The defense needs to get right, though, after allowing more than 400 yards in back-to-back losses. A tough draw awaits on Sunday night.
L.A. is building a Super Bowl case so far. With 10 games in the books, it ranks sixth in points for and second in points against. But playoff positioning will be a rubicon for the Rams. Because the Seattle Seahawks (7-3) and the San Francisco 49ers (7-4) are close behind, Sean McVay might have to play his starters through Week 18. A first-round bye would afford rest to 37-year-old Matthew Stafford and soon-to-be 33-year-old Davante Adams. Stafford paces the NFL in touchdown passes, a candidate for his first MVP award in his 17th year. According to NFL Media, Adams just became the fifth receiver to notch double-digit TD catches in seven different seasons — the other four are in Canton. Los Angeles as the No. 1 seed would go a long way in preserving that West Coast connection. Remember, the Rams lost in Philadelphia back in Week 3 and in last year’s postseason. They’re a great team, but maybe not a cold-weather one.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3)
Steelers’ playoff chances if they win: 38 percent
If they lose: 19 percent
Bears’ playoff chances if they win: 58 percent
If they lose: 35 percent
The Steelers and Bears both come in with tenuous (and surprising) division leads. Pittsburgh needs to pad its record as Baltimore ascends via a four-game win streak. Chicago is fending off both Green Bay and Detroit, two qualified groups with far more playoff experience. Aaron Rodgers’ fractured wrist does not require surgery, though his Week 12 status is still in question. If he’s able to go, the hosts have a chance to exorcise generational demons.
As a member of the Packers, Rodgers regularly brought late-season sadness to Soldier Field. He beat the Bears there in the final week of the 2020 season to clinch a No. 1 seed. He took an NFC North title out of their claws with 2013’s final-minute madness — this 48-yard, fourth-down strike to Randall Cobb is forever seared into Chicago’s collective consciousness. No matter the jersey, a win at Rodgers’ expense would light up Sunday’s home crowd.
Even if Rodgers is on ice, the Pittsburgh defense brings a gut-check test to Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. The Steelers begin the week with the second-most QB hits, trailing only the juggernaut Broncos front. T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith bring afternoon-ruining pressure from the second level. The Bears, 7-1 in their last eight games, have also re-established their defensive identity with 22 forced turnovers, most in the league. Old-school energy abounds. This game means a lot to both fan bases, as well as their division rivals’.
1. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Colts’ No. 1 seed chances if they win: 35 percent
If they lose: 13 percent
Chiefs’ playoff chances if they win: 67 percent
If they lose: 38 percent
An NFL playoff bracket that doesn’t include Kansas City feels like a stringless guitar or a pool without water. Since 2010, the Chiefs have as many Super Bowl victories as years without postseason berths (3 apiece).
Per The Athletic beat writer Jesse Newell, this team has been stunningly awful in clutch time. Through Week 11, K.C. ranks in the top 10 in offense and defense (both points and yards). Yet several late slips have left it without room for error. We can’t count out Patrick Mahomes, or Chris Jones, or Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. But the reality of must-win November games is here. Sunday’s matchup is daunting — Jonathan Taylor is No. 1 in rushing yards and TDs, Alec Pierce is No. 1 in yards per reception, and the Colts at large are No. 1 in scoring percentage.
Indianapolis leads the Jacksonville Jaguars by two games in the AFC South. But the Jags’ next two opponents are Arizona and the Tennessee Titans. The Colts have to go to Arrowhead, then face the first of two late-season tests against the Houston Texans’ top-ranked defense. A first-round bye is in play for upstart Indy, but so is a second-place division finish. Even though the pressurized spotlight falls on the Chiefs this Sunday, there’s also a lot at stake for one of the NFL’s feel-good breakout teams of 2025.
Updated Week 12 odds
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