For the first time in the 2025 season, the Buffalo Bills have an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 when they face the Cleveland Browns. They can’t do it on their own, but the path is very doable, even if they may have to wait until Monday night.
We need to revisit the AFC standings before we do the math.
The only team that has clinched a playoff berth is the Denver Broncos. A bunch of teams can join them this week including the Bills.
If a team isn’t listed, they’ve been eliminated from the AFC playoff picture.
1. Denver Broncos (12-2)*
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4, 8-2 AFC)
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4, 7-3 AFC)
7. Houston Texans (9-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
* – Clinched a playoff spot
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Buffalo Bills playoff clinching scenarios
The Buffalo Bills at 10-4 can clinch a playoff spot before Christmas but in order to do that, they will need a win or tie against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Then they will need either a loss or tie from the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts.
Let’s break down each path.
Bills win AND Colts lose/tie
The Bills would move to 11 wins with a victory, meaning the worst they could finish is 11-6. A Colts loss would hand them their seventh loss of the season. The Bills would guarantee finishing in the top seven teams in terms of overall record, and thus secure a playoff spot. The Colts play on Monday night, so the Bills may have to wait until them to lock it up.
Bills win AND Texans lose/tie
The Bills earning their 11th win would not guarantee Buffalo finishing ahead of the Texans in this scenario. Houston at 11-6 would still hold the tiebreaker over Buffalo at 11-6 thanks to their head-to-head victory. However, the Texans play the Colts in Week 18, so that second outcome ensures both the Colts and Texans can’t be 11-6 and in a tie with the Bills.
Bills tie AND Texans or Colts lose
This one gets a little loopier because it involves a tie for Buffalo, but the Bills at 10-6-1 would finish ahead of a seven-loss Colts team. Similar to the Texans scenario above, Houston losing this week would ensure either the Colts or Texans would finish behind the 10-6-1 Bills.
This week’s schedule for the AFC playoff picture
Who teams play is obviously important to these scenarios being realistic or not, so here is who everyone is playing this weekend starting with the Bills notables then the rest of the field.
- Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns, 1:00 p.m. Eastern
- Houston Texans host the Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m. Eatern
- Indianapolis Colts host the San Francisco 49ers, Monday Night Football
- Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys, 1:00 p.m. Eastern
- Denver Broncos host Jacksonville Jaguars, 4:05 p.m. Eastern
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. Eastern
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m. Eastern
- New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday Night Football
- Baltimore Ravens host New England Patriots, Sunday Night Football
Teams that can clinch an AFC playoff spot this week
The Denver Broncos have already clinched a playoff spot, but they can clinch the one seed with a win and losses from the Chargers and Patriots and Bills.
The Broncos can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Chargers loss/tie.
The New England Patriots can clinch a playoff berth with a win/tie or a Texans loss/tie or a Colts loss/tie. It should be noted that the Patriots can’t clinch the AFC title this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers share a record with the Bills and can clinch a playoff spot with the exact same scenarios as the Buffalo; a win plus a Texans or Colts loss. The tie scenarios are the same, too.
There is a very real scenario where six of the seven AFC playoff teams are decided by the end of the week and the only thing in question is the order. (The AFC North race between the Ravens and Steelers won’t impact the wild card spots.)
