Congratulations, Coach, you have made it to the College Football Playoff.
A successful season by any measure … right?
Well, let’s talk about that.
College football is still adapting to this new system and new standards for success. Just getting in the tournament might be fine for some teams and coaches. Other fan bases expect a whole lot more.
No one is facing the scrutiny Ryan Day was heading into the first 12-team CFP last year, coming off a fourth straight loss to Ohio State’s bitter rivals at Michigan. It worked out OK for Day.
Let’s apply the pressure gauge to see where everybody — including Day — stands heading into this year’s CFP and try to get a feel for what qualifies as a successful postseason for each participant (ranked from most pressure to least).
1. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Imagine going 19-7 in your first two seasons at a school with a CFP appearance and most of your fans are like, “Yeah, I’m not so sure about this guy.” Welcome to DeBoer’s world.
Rumors swirled about him going to Penn State had he not made the CFP. Despite getting smoked in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide made the Playoff. Then the Michigan job opened, and speculation ramped up again, so much so that DeBoer released a statement Sunday making clear he is not going anywhere. Simply, no coach in the field needs a CFP victory or two more than DeBoer. Two would mean knocking off No. 1 Indiana. That might finally get Alabama fans to totally buy in. Maybe.
2. Joey McGuire, Texas Tech
Red Raiders fans don’t love the best-team-money-can-buy narrative that follows their squad. That’s fair, but it’s not really a slight. The game has changed, and Texas Tech is good at it. Tech’s roster investment elevated expectations and created pressure on McGuire to deliver in a big way this season. The fourth-year coach came through, but really just getting here was the bare minimum. The Red Raiders are trying to become a program that can sustain high-level success. That’s no guarantee, and McGuire is still under pressure to max out this special season.
Texas Tech is one of the programs where just making the CFP isn’t enough to have a successful season. (Nathan Giese / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
3. Mike Elko, Texas A&M
Elko got a big raise and a contract extension on the way to leading the Aggies into the Playoff for the first time. A&M fans are feeling as if they finally have a coach capable of realizing the program’s vast potential. All the arrows are pointing up in College Station. Ending the season by losing to Texas and dropping a home Playoff game, though, is a perfect way for Elko to re-ignite those familiar feelings of dread.
4. Ryan Day, Ohio State
Day snapped his losing streak to Michigan last month. So that’s not a problem this year. The Buckeyes’ Big Ten championship drought, though, reached five years after losing to Indiana in a game Ohio State fans felt was given away with some questionable red-zone decisions. National championships cure everything, as the Buckeyes showed last year. This team doesn’t have a natty-or-bust feel to it, but Day is still doing penance for four straight losses to Michigan, and a first-round exit won’t wash away those sins.
5. Dan Lanning, Oregon
Lanning’s old boss, Georgia’s Kirby Smart, didn’t win a national title until Year 6 with the Bulldogs. While that hung over Smart and frustrated Bulldogs fans eager to break a long championship drought, there was a point when it felt inevitable he would break through. In Year 4 at Oregon, Lanning’s Ducks have a similar vibe. So while another relatively early exit will be thoroughly annoying for Oregon fans, they seem to know they have the right guy. But beware: The can’t-win-the-big-one label comes at you fast.
Oregon’s Dan Lanning is still looking to make a deep run in the CFP. (Ben Lonergan / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
6. Curt Cignetti, Indiana
Last year’s surprising run to the CFP produced low expectations for Coach Cig and the Hoosiers. A first-round loss at Notre Dame led to some questioning IU’s playoff-worthiness. That’s not a problem this year, but there is still some Indiana skepticism. Sure, the Hoosiers are good, but are they really THIS good? Also, is this just what Indiana is now? Really? Cignetti is still in the do-no-wrong stage with Indiana fans, but the No. 1 seed has to at least win a Playoff game. If the Hoosiers don’t, their fans will finally have something to complain about.
7. Pete Golding, Ole Miss
Golding was promoted to head coach from defensive coordinator following the Lane Kiffin follies. Ole Miss fans are ready to rally around the new guy. Losing a home game to 11th-seeded Tulane — a team the Rebels beat by 35 in the regular season — is absolutely no way to make a first impression.
8. Brent Venables, Oklahoma
Venables entered this season in a strange place. You could see the vision as he built a stellar defense and reinfused the program with a toughness that had faded under his predecessor, Lincoln Riley. But he had also gone 6-7 in two of his first three years, creating some angst about OU’s standing in college football upon arrival in the SEC. Reaching the Playoff against a daunting schedule has Sooner Nation feeling better about the long-term prospects. Even a bad result in the rematch against Alabama probably won’t change that much. That said, it’s Oklahoma. There’s always pressure to win.
9. Mario Cristobal, Miami
There has been steady progress at Miami in four seasons under Cristobal. Listen, there will always be questions about whether he can take all that talent he has gathered and actually win the big one. But winning as the 10th-seed at Texas A&M is going to be hard, and it’s doubtful anybody is going to think much differently about Cristobal if he can’t. Similar to Venables, it seems like the CFP can only help Cristobal. Just don’t blow a fourth-quarter lead, OK?
10. Jon Sumrall, Tulane
The pressure on Sumrall is minimal as he and the Green Wave head to Ole Miss as 17.5-point underdogs in his final days as Tulane coach. If anything, the scrutiny on Sumrall is coming from Florida fans, some of which are skeptical about the latest G5 coach from Louisiana entrusted with turning around the Gators.
11. Kirby Smart, Georgia
Smart tossed the Alabama monkey off his back in the SEC title game, and the Bulldogs have gotten better as the season has gone along. There seemed to be some angst in Athens about a general slippage of the program coming off of last year’s one-and-done CFP appearance. That cranks up again if another season concludes in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, but Georgia fans will likely just blame offensive coordinator Mike Bobo if things go wrong.
12. Bob Chesney, James Madison
Pure house money for Chesney as he prepares to jump to UCLA. The big difference between Chesney’s situation and Sumrall’s is that Bruins fans already seem pretty well bought in. It’s doubtful anything can happen in Autzen Stadium against the Ducks as a 21.5-point underdog that will make them want to send him back to Harrisonburg, Va., before he takes over full-time in Westwood.
