The Minnesota Wild made a game-changing trade last week, adding Quinn Hughes to a roster that desperately needed his exact brand of dynamic offensive talent from the back end. Hughes moves the needle in a massive way and instantly brings the Wild up a level. My question: how will the Wild use him?
Obviously, the surface-level answer is “a lot.” He played 26:55 and 29:33 in his first two games and there’ll be more where that came from. I’m wondering more about matchup deployment, especially after his first game with the Wild against the Boston Bruins. Of his 23.6 minutes at five-on-five, Hughes spent 9.5 against David Pastrnak, or 40.3 percent. That kind of usage isn’t exactly common for Hughes. Of his 26 games with the Canucks this season, only six saw Hughes play over 40 percent of his minutes against the other team’s best forward. Last year it was even less: just six of 68.
That’s not inherently a bad thing; Hughes is an offensive force and is at his best being deployed to optimize that skill set. Let Tyler Myers suffer for a bigger offensive gain elsewhere. Nashville does it with Roman Josi, Tampa Bay does it with Victor Hedman, and Ottawa used to always do it with Erik Karlsson. But it does have an effect on his numbers (as it would for anyone) and it’ll be interesting to see how Minnesota approaches it.
Last season, Hughes played 28 percent of his minutes against the other team’s best forward and earned a 48.9 percent xG rate (a perfectly reasonable rate in that role, which is up to 52.5 percent this year). He upped that to 56.1 percent and during the other 72 percent of his minutes. Hughes ended the year with 54.2 percent of expected goals, but in a more typical shutdown role split where Hughes spends 40 percent of his minutes against stars, that would drop to 53.2 percent (assuming both xG figures stay constant). It’s also worth noting that Hughes’ xGF/60 drops from 2.81 away from stars to 2.31 against — a noteworthy decline if the goal is optimizing offense.
Finding the right balance poses an interesting question for the Wild, especially if they’re set on pairing Hughes with Brock Faber, who is no stranger to playing matchup minutes. Do they go power vs. power and hope the added support from Faber, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy in matchup minutes allows Hughes to thrive all the same? Or do they split the duo and let Hughes run wild as he did so well in Vancouver, leaving Faber the defensive assignments?
Aside from all the awesome stuff Hughes brings to the Wild, that’ll be the thing to watch from an analytical perspective. What helps the Wild solve this puzzle better than the Canucks is being far better situated with the rest of the top four. The presence of Jonas Brodin — still one of the best defensive defensemen in the league — is a big step up from relying on Myers in a shutdown role. Minnesota has support and options, two things the Canucks lacked.
No matter what way they choose to configure things, the Wild are serious players in the West now, built by the strength of their top four. With Hughes, the team’s top four now ranks third in the league by projected Net Rating. Unfortunately, the only two teams above them happen to be in their division.
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1. Elite company for Minnesota’s new elite duo
Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes — that’s two top-10 players in the world that now call Minnesota home. Combined, the Wild’s new duo has a projected Net Rating of plus-36.5. The only teams that have a better two-player combo are the Edmonton Oilers with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (plus-50.4) and the Colorado Avalanche with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar (plus-47.5).
2. The Detroit difference in a Hughes package
After the Hughes deal, colleague Pierre LeBrun reported the New Jersey Devils, Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres and Carolina Hurricanes were all in the mix for Hughes.
The Red Wings looked like a really interesting landing spot, but if the centerpiece of the deal was Zeev Buium, it’s easy to see the problem for Detroit’s two young defensemen. Simon Edvinsson: too good to give up. Axel Sandin-Pellikka: not as intriguing as Buium.
An extended Hughes would probably be worth parting with Edvinsson. Two years of Hughes? Probably not. Edvinsson is under team control until 2030 and has already established himself as a top-pair defender. His projected Net Rating until then comes in at around plus-31 total, not far off Hughes on his own over the next two seasons. Considering how far Detroit still is from Stanley Cup contention, that’s a big risk. Hughes helps, but losing Edvinsson would put the team at the same disadvantage: still short half of a top four.
As for Sandin-Pellikka, the chasm between him and Edvinsson looks too vast. His base case looks closer to second-pair territory. Edvinsson’s comp list is littered with top-pair defensemen — Hampus Lindholm, Ryan McDonagh, Josh Morrissey — while Sandin-Pellikka’s comp list is a lot more shallow with more boom-or-bust options. His top comps were Ethan Bear, Noah Hanifin, Josh Mahura, Rasmus Sandin and Jamie Drysdale.
3. Seider is a monster
The race for the Norris Trophy has started to become genuinely interesting, and it’s all because Moritz Seider has become an absolute two-way terror.
In December, Seider has eight points in eight games, an unfathomable 77 percent xG rate and has put the Red Wings up 12-4 at five-on-five — all with his usual buffet of matchup assignments. His average Game Score for the month is 3.18, leading all players.
As a result, Seider woke up Wednesday morning with a plus-12.8 Net Rating on the season — just 0.1 goals back of Cale Makar. It’s officially a race, and while a 16-point difference is tough for some to overcome, Seider’s weaker supporting cast and incredible defensive ability make up a lot of that gap.
I don’t know if this will last, but if you’re one of the fans who bemoan that Norris voters “only care about points,” Seider is your guy.
4. The best shutdown pairs are in the Atlantic
With Seider and Edvinsson on the ice, the Red Wings allow just 1.9 xGA/60. Only eight pairs that have played 100 minutes together have allowed fewer than 2.0 xGA/60 and only one other has done so while playing matchup minutes. That would be Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub at 1.83.
There have been pointed questions about the ultimate ceiling from both rebuilds, but it sure helps to have true franchise defensemen in Seider and Sanderson.
5. Tampa Bay’s Hedman-less top four is actually elite
Bad news: Victor Hedman is out until February.
Good news: Tampa Bay has done pretty well without him. The Lightning’s top two pairs this season by xG have actually not even included Hedman. Instead, it’s been J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh (62.3 percent) and the usual shutdown pair of Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak (62.1 percent).
Hedman and Moser have been great together, but Moser has unlocked something special playing on his natural side. If the Lightning can find a decent righty to play with Hedman, they’ll have a seriously stacked blue line.
6. Toronto’s power-play problems
The Leafs are in unfamiliar territory: dead last with the man advantage. That should be impossible with the talent at their disposal. The fact they’re one of two teams scoring under five goals-per-60 with the man advantage and that the other team is the Calgary Flames should be a massive indictment on the franchise. For a team that gets so few power-play chances every night, they can’t afford to waste them to this degree.
How bad is it? The last time the Leafs scored under five goals per 60 with the man advantage over any 30-game stretch was the end of the 2015-16 season — the year they finished dead last. It’s a first during the Auston Matthews era and the team desperately needs it to be the last 30-game stretch at that level of ineptitude.
7. Kraken’s penalty kill is letting them down
Water always finds its level and that seems to be the case with the Seattle Kraken, a team in a serious talent deficit that somehow started the season 11-5-5 despite getting out-chanced badly every night. The Kraken are 1-8-1 since.
While Seattle’s five-on-five game was the chief area of concern to start the season, it’s the team’s penalty kill that’s really crushed them during their fall back to Earth. The Kraken have allowed 16.4 GA/60 over the last 10 games, second-last to the Devils. Worse, it’s completely deserved with a league-worst 18 xGA/60 — nearly five worse than the next-worst team and almost twice as much as the average team.
Zach Hyman is back to being a major difference-maker for the Oilers. (Justin Berl / Getty Images)
8. Hyman is back
After a down season by his Oilers standards, it sure looks like Zach Hyman is back to being a major difference-maker for the Oilers. Give him a five-game grace period after coming back from a major injury and he’s been unbelievable. His 56 percent xG is one of the team’s top marks, the Oilers are up 12-7 in his minutes, and he’s got eight goals and 11 points in those 10 games.
9. And so is McDavid
Over that same time frame, McDavid has come alive with 10 goals, 23 points and an average Game Score of 2.56, buoyed by a return to normal at five-on-five. Before that point, McDavid’s average Game Score was a shockingly low 1.37, for him anyways. Scoring “just” 33 points in 24 games while being mid at five-on-five will have that effect, but the real McDavid has returned.
10. Weegar’s nightmare season
I don’t think we’re talking about MacKenzie Weegar’s drop-off this season enough. On the production front, he’s gone from 47 points last season to a 19-point pace this season. On the play-driving front, he’s gone from a plus-0.22 per 60 relative to teammate impact on xG to minus-0.26 — and the difference for goals is even more stark. While playing secondary matchups, the Flames have been outscored 33 to 13 in his minutes, a nasty figure in just 34 games.
Sum it all up and Weegar’s Net Rating this year currently sits at minus-4.2, the 21st worst mark in the league. He was at plus-11.6 last year. No player’s projected value has dropped further.
11. Evangelista’s breakout
There aren’t many players whose projected value has jumped higher than Luke Evangelista’s this season. He was expected to be an average player coming into the season, but has jumped to a projected Net Rating of plus-5.8 — right around first-line territory. Evangelista has been a revelation on Nashville’s top line, earning a 57 percent xG with Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. In a matchup role, Evangelista has been Nashville’s best play-driver this season. His 1.17 primary assists per 60 is tied with Connor Bedard for 20th in the league.
And to think it took until Oct. 4 for Nashville to sign Evangelista to a paltry two-year deal worth $3 million per season. He’s worth a lot more these days.
12. The red-hot Predators
Going into Wednesday’s game against Carolina, the Predators were 7-3-0 in their last 10 and playing some legitimately good hockey. They rank third in xG (56.7 percent) and more importantly, they’re actually turning that advantage into tangible results with 63 percent of actual goals, which also ranks third. Their special teams have been pretty solid, too.
Evangelista’s emergence during that time (12 points in 10 games) is a big part of it, but it’s also a number of other factors. Steven Stamkos has eight goals in those 10 games, Ryan O’Reilly has 13 points while dominating at five-on-five, Fedor Svechkov and Nick Blankenburg are breaking through and even Brady Skjei looks like a $7 million man again. Juuse Saros putting up a .917 isn’t bad either, and the return of Roman Josi can’t be understated.
I still have doubts about Nashville’s playoff chances, especially after a slow start. But we’ve seen this franchise go on some ridiculous runs and the West wild-card picture looks wide open this year.
13. Comrie with Hellebuyck out
There’s a big difference between a backup role and a starter’s workload that GSAx alone arguably doesn’t capture. Eric Comrie is a decent case study of that.
In the 24 games Comrie has played in a backup role since the start of the 2024-25 season, he had a .913 save percentage. In the 11 games he played during Connor Hellebuyck’s absence, that dropped to .876.
Maybe that’s small sample size randomness, maybe that’s regression from previously strong numbers. Either way, it’s a reason to be wary when comparing the numbers between bell-cow goalies and spot-start goalies — it’s not apples-to-apples.
14. Jet vs. Elvis
The Blue Jackets made the right call on Nov. 11, handing the starting reins over to Jet Greaves. Up until that point, it was a timeshare between him and Elvis Merzļikins, and while their numbers were similar then, it’s been anything but since. In 13 games, Greaves has a .911 save percentage while saving 4.1 goals above expected. Merzļikins, on the other hand, has a dismal .839 save percentage while allowing 12 goals above expected. That’s a massive difference.
15. Devils’ offense without Jack Hughes
Jack Hughes has been out for a little over a month now and the difference in New Jersey’s offense with and without him is stark. The Devils were already not great offensively as a whole with him, but it’s even worse now.
With Hughes
Five-on-five GF/60: 2.32 (19th)
PP GF/60: 8.22 (10th)
Without Hughes
Five-on-five GF/60: 1.87 (30th)
PP GF/60: 5.63 (23rd)
What the Devils miss most is Hughes’ dynamic ability to turn chances into goals. By xG, the drop has been minimal, but the lack of finishing comes down to a huge loss of talent.
16. Three-on-three hockey has slowed down
From 2015-16 to 2021-22, the league average for shots per 60 during three-on-three overtime was 38.4, a mark that stayed fairly consistent from year to year. Since then, it’s steadily dropped from 37.1 in 2022-23 to 33.5 last season and now its new low this year: 30.1. If overtime has felt a lot slower this season, the numbers agree. Shots are down 22 percent over the last five years.
That was OK over the last two years because it meant a rise in goals; the 6.6 goals per 60 in both 2023-24 and 2024-25 represented the two highest scoring three-on-three seasons. This season, it’s down to 5.85, the lowest since the first year three-on-three hockey was implemented.
— Data via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL and Hockey Stat Cards
