Any Given Saturday: Can Miami upset Texas A&M in first round of the College Football Playoff?
We waited months to find out which teams will play in the College Football Playoffs.
Now that the stage is officially set, the biggest question is will we see an upset in the first round?
Alabama versus Oklahoma has hovered around a pick’em at FanDuel since that SEC showdown was set.
On Saturday, Texas A&M will kick off a triple-header as a 3.5-point favourite versus Miami of Florida.
Considering the spreads for Saturday’s final two games, Miami might have the best shot to pull off the upset of any first-round underdog.
The Hurricanes are +130 to beat Texas A&M outright.
Contrast that number with Tulane at +610 to upset Ole Miss and James Madison at +1200 to upset Oregon.
The No. 5 Ducks are a 20.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
The No. 6 Rebels are a 17.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
A two-team moneyline parlay with Oregon and Ole Miss to both win outright is priced at a whopping -643.
That number suggests an 86.3 per cent implied probability that both the Ducks and Rebels advance.
Oregon has the shortest odds to win the College Football Playoff National Championship of the eight teams that are in action this weekend at +750.
Ohio State (+200), Indiana (+310), and Georgia (+550) are the only teams with shorter odds to win the title.
In last year’s College Football Playoff, the home teams in the first round won by an average of 19.3 points.
All four home teams won by double digits.
If the home favourites take care of business on Saturday, we’ll see Oregon, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all advance.
I’m not interested in laying the points with any of them.
The one player who does interest me is Miami’s true freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney.
Toney has looked electric at times in his debut season.
In Miami’s opener, Toney exploded with six catches for 82 yards in an upset win over Notre Dame.
The 18-year-old saved his best for the end of the season when he averaged 12.5 receptions for 136.0 yards over his final two games, scoring a touchdown in wins over Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.
Regardless of whether the Hurricanes pull off the upset, I think Toney is in line for another dominant performance.
With an experienced QB in Carson Beck and a dominant young wide receiver in Toney, Miami’s best chance to compete with Texas A&M is through the air.
Give me Toney over 79.5 receiving yards as a best bet for Saturday’s College Football Playoff games.
With kick-off just after noon eastern time, I’m looking forward to seeing whether he can help the Hurricanes in a tough road environment against A&M.
Meanwhile, FanDuel also has a feature that allows you to parlay how far teams go in the College Football Playoff.
As somebody who said from the beginning of the year that I think Ohio State will repeat as champions, I like their potential path to the final as they face the winner of Miami versus Texas A&M, likely followed by the winner of Ole Miss versus Georgia.
A three-team parlay with Ohio State to make the final as well as both Indiana and Georgia to get there as well could be found at +300 odds at FanDuel.
I locked in that three-leg futures SGP ahead of the first round of the College Football Playoffs.
Enjoy the first round games, everyone!
