After clinching a playoff spot in Baltimore last week, the “road warrior” Patriots finish out their regular-season road slate against the Jets in the Meadowlands on Sunday afternoon.
There are a few different ways to look at Sunday’s trip to face the three-win Jets, which admittedly doesn’t have as much juice as New England’s last two games. The first one is that the NFL is an any-given-Sunday league, escpecially this season. Last week, the Bills escaped the Browns in Cleveland, while the Texans had their hands full with the Raiders. With the Patriots coming off an emotional comeback win to clinch their first playoff berth since 2021, they can’t let their guard down against a divisional opponent.
Speaking of the division, another angle is that the Patriots still need to close out the AFC East and are vying for seeding in the AFC playoffs. The Patriots control their own destiny, with wins over the Jets and Dolphins (Week 18) earning them a division title. However, the Bills host the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles this weekend, and the Pats can win the division with a win/tie and a Bills loss to Philly in the late afternoon window. If they take care of business in the Meadowlands, the Pats could be scoreboard watching on their flight home from New Jersey.
As for seeding in the AFC, there’s a path for New England to earn a first-round bye as the No. 1 overall seed, but they have to get some help from the Chiefs or Chargers, Denver’s next two opponents. The Broncos own the tiebreaker over the Patriots, so New England needs to finish with a better record than Denver to be the No. 1 seed, while the Bills (11-4), Jaguars (11-4), and Chargers (11-4) are right there as well. Ultimately, the Patriots need to keep winning and let the chips fall where they may in terms of seeding and postseason matchups.
The last angle we’ll highlight is using the last two weeks against non-playoff opponents to fine-tune for the postseason. The Jets will attack weaknesses that the Bills and Ravens might’ve exposed, such as the Pats run defense or their passing offense vs. certain coverages. By getting more in-game reps against repeat schemes being used against them, the Patriots can work on things for the playoffs. To that end, we’ll have to see who is available for the Patriots. New England has three players in concussion protocol (Henderson, Boutte, Wilson), and others are banged up. Plus, DT Milton Williams (ankle) and LB Robert Spillane’s (ankle) statuses are still uncertain, with Williams returning to practice this week.
Before we get into the Xs and Os, here’s a quick refresher on the Jets, who have had some changes since Week 11. Since the Patriots win on Nov. 13, New York benched QB Justin Fields for undrafted rookie Brady Cook. Jets first-year head coach Aaron Glenn also parted ways with former defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, tabbing up-and-comer Chris Harris to run his defense in the interim. The Jets are also playing without star WR Garrett Wilson (IR), and they traded CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams earlier this season – it’s a full-on rebuild in Florham Park.
Having said that, one area the Jets are dangerous is on special teams, where they’re the top-ranked unit in DVOA and kickoff return average (30.1), while they’re seventh in punt return average (13.4). On Wednesday, head coach Mike Vrabel broke down the Jets impressive return units under special teams coordinator Chris Banjo.
“Special teams have been a very, very strong point for these guys,” Vrabel said. “Great scheme, excellent players, very good returners. We’ll have to cover with a purpose this week. Obviously, they have a running back that really runs through arm tackles, and has done a great job of doing that. So, as much as they kick away from Kene [Nwangwu], now [Isaiah] Williams is getting a lot of those. So, we’ll have to make sure that we’re good, that the space is limited, and again, one guy’s probably not going to be able to get him down. So, making sure that we’re matching everything that they do from a special teams standpoint. Critical phase.”
Let’s preview the chess match between the Patriots and Jets in the Meadowlands on Sunday.
Offense Key: Preparing for What Worked for the Jets Defense in Week 11 Matchup
The Patriots offense and QB Drake Maye mostly had their way with the Jets defense in the Week 11 matchup, scoring 27 points in a double-digit win on a short week late in the season.
Maye was spectacular against New York’s defense on that Thursday night, with a near flawless performance, posting 11 ‘plus’ plays in my charting. Maye finished the game 25-of-34 for 281 passing yards and a touchdown. In the advanced stats, Maye added +0.29 expected points in the first game vs. the Jets, which is in the 78th percentile, so Maye was superb against the Jets by any measure of his play in Week 11.
