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Pick Six Previews: Utah the clear-cut favorite over Nebraska in Las Vegas Bowl

LAS VEGAS — Utah capped off a 10-win regular season by defeating Kansas 31-21. The Utes led a comeback thanks to Devon Dampier’s three touchdown passes and a game-changing 97-yard pick six by Scooby Davis.

The 2025 team marked Kyle Whittingham’s eighth 10-win season, and this time it was an impressive five-game improvement from the 2024 campaign. Utah missed the Big 12 title game by finishing a game behind BYU, and then placed 15th in the final College Football Playoff rankings — five spots short of the program’s first-ever bid.

The Utes received an invite to the Las Vegas Bowl against Nebraska, but the biggest news story came on Dec. 12 when Whittingham stepped down from his 21-year post as head coach. He left Utah as the program’s winningest head coach (177 wins), won three national coach of the year awards, and led the original “BCS buster” to wins over Pitt in 2004 and over Alabama in 2008.

Whittingham led the program through its transition from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 and built a Power Four championship roster that won back-to-back league titles in 2021 and 2022.

Whittingham passes the crown to longtime assistant, and former Utah safety, Morgan Scalley. The new era kicks off on New Year’s Eve in the Las Vegas Bowl (1:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Utah 55.4 (23rd of 68 Power 4) | Nebraska 44.0 (51st)
2024 season: Utah 44.9 (48th) | Nebraska 54.3 (31st)
2025 season: Utah 72.0 (11th) | Nebraska 48.1 (42nd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish fourth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They lost twice — 34-10 to Texas Tech and 24-21 to BYU — but eight of their wins were blowouts, with an average yardage margin of 200+ per game.

I projected Nebraska to finish seventh in the Big Ten, and they finished 10th. This was Matt Rhule’s third season — the same year he led breakthroughs at Temple and Baylor — yet the team finished with a disappointing 4-5 record in league play. They check in at No. 42 in Game Grader out of 68 Power Four teams.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 9th of 68 Power 4 teams, 24th passing, 3rd rushing
Nebraska defense: 39th of 68 Power 4 teams, 25th pass defense, 62nd rush defense

Bowl game previews have been difficult due to the trend of opt-outs, transfers, and the never-ending coaching carousel; this Las Vegas Bowl is no different. There has been no official statement yet, but Utah’s offensive coordinator Jason Beck is rumored to be the top candidate to follow Whittingham to Michigan.

There are two known absences along Utah’s Joe Moore Award semifinalist line, with two potential NFL first-rounders opting out: first team All-American Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu.

Otherwise, the Utah offense will be intact. That includes both mobile quarterbacks Dampier and freshman Byrd Ficklin, who have tortured opposing defenses (1,190 combined rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns).

Running back Wayshawn Parker is 69 yards away from his 1,000-yard goal. He’ll likely hit that by halftime, because this Nebraska defense ranks in the bottom 10 of my opponent- adjusted rushing defense stat.

To make matters worse, Nebraska fired its defensive coordinator John Butler and their two All-Big Ten stars, Dasan McCullough and Deshon Singleton, opted out. A top five rushing offense vs. bottom 10 rushing defense — even without the star tackles — means the Utes will get their yards and points here.

Nebraska with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Nebraska offense: 45th of 68 Power 4 teams, 27th passing, 44th rushing
Utah defense: 37th of 68 Power 4 teams, 7th pass defense, 61st rush defense

Utah’s defense is stronger than these stats suggest. Their Week 12 defensive collapse against Kansas State — 8.8 yards per play — is weighing down these season averages. But their coach in-waiting title for Scalley, and now his eventual full-time head coach hire, reflect Utah’s confidence in this side of the ball.

In 10 seasons as the defensive coordinator, Scalley led five conference-best rushing defenses; and since 2019, Utah has held 36 teams to 15 or less points — ninth best nationally. The “RSNB” — or relentless, smart, nasty, ballhawks — era continues.

For the bowl game, Utah will be without its top two defenders in John Henry Daley (season-ending injury) and Logan Fano (opt-out). Nebraska is missing its All-America running back Emmett Johnson and three original starting offensive linemen.

The Nebraska offense has become very one-dimensional and reliant on Johnson — he led the nation in percentage of team yardage (41%) — so his opt-out is more damaging than usual.

Game prediction

Even without its four best linemen (on both sides of the ball), and their winningest head coach all-time, Utah enters this bowl game as the clear-cut favorite. The rushing attack is dominant and dynamic, with highlight-reel runners at quarterback.

Nebraska is missing its share of star players and is tumbling into bowl season off consecutive blowout losses to Penn State and Iowa (77-26 combined score).

Game Grader forecasted Utah as a 14-point favorite assuming the rosters were at full-strength. The opt-out of Johnson hurts Nebraska more than the opt-outs of Fano and Lomu hurt Utah. Look for Scalley’s defense to play inspired RSNB ball.

Utah 41 | Nebraska 17

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