Colts vs. Texans, 1:00 ET
PublishedJanuary 4, 2026 8:00 AM EST•UpdatedJanuary 2, 2026 11:25 AM EST
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Colts vs. Texans, 1:00 ET
The football season, at least the regular season, is coming to a close here on January 4th and we get playoffs shortly thereafter. As always, and as I’ve said numerous times, it all seems to fly by. What is most interesting to me about this season in particular is that the thoughts and beliefs we had about teams evolved so much on many of them from the preseason, to middle of the year, to now. That might not be truer than how we viewed the Colts and Texans, who close their regular season against each other today.
The Colts were a team no one really expected much to come from this year. Then, they all of a sudden looked like the best team in the division. The offense was rolling, the defenese was playing inspired football, and there was talk of if they would win the division, not just if they would make the playoffs. Things happen, especially injuries, and it certainly derailed the Colts year. That really isn’t an excuse as all teams have injuries, and the losing started before Daniel Jones went on the Injured Reserve list, but the team was 8-2 through Week 10. They haven’t won a game since with Jones only playing in two of them. He was competitive against the Chiefs, and it actually looked like they would pull that one out. He was also pretty good against the Texans, but that was as far as he could go. Riley Leonard took over for him, and then the Colts said let’s give Philip Rivers a try and see if he can get us the playoff spot we are looking for. It wasn’t meant to be and now Leonard is getting the start again against the Texans. The Colts went from a team no one expected anything from, to a team that was destined for the playoffs, and now they probably won’t even finish above .500.
(Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports)
The Texans don’t have much left to play for. They have already clinched their playoff spot but they could still win the division if the Jaguars lose. It is fairly unlikely, so expect them to be a Wild Card team. However, this team also had a lot of different thoughts during the year. I took them to win the division at the beginning because I didn’t see the Jaguars being real competition, but Jacksonville has put together a nice campaign. Right out of the gate, my confidence in the Texans went down because they went 0-3 looking like their offense could do nothing right. The offensive line was in shambles and as great as the defense was, the rest of the team was ruining everything. Since that point, the team has gone 11-2 with losses to Seattle and Denver. I’d argue the loss to Seattle showcases just how troubled their offense could be at times. The loss to Denver was just two great defenses going up against each other. Since that point, though, most people think the Texans are real Super Bowl threats because of how good their defense is. The offense has also started rolling a bit. Hehy have put up 20+ points in seven of the last eight games. Their defense has held opponents to 16 or fewer points in four of the past eight games with no one scoring more than 21 against them in the past seven.
The Texans don’t have a ton to play for in this game, but they are certainly looking to keep rolling. I expect the starters to play the first half of the game and sit the second because they likely won’t catch the Jaguars for the division. They still need to win, but they don’t need to win big. With Leonard under center, the Texans probably are not all that worried, either. However, I do expect a lot of backups to play for part of the game. I’m going to take the Colts +10.5 and I’ll take them over 13.5 points. I just think it is too much for a game that doesn’t really matter to the Texans. Even if they lose, it just changes who they play in the playoffs.
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