RABAT, Morocco — For the first time ever, all eight Africa Cup of Nations quarterfinalists are among Africa’s top 10 teams in the FIFA World Rankings, and a tournament that has been largely devoid of shocks so far.
The quarters are primed to deliver us some high-quality (and nail-biting) Last Eight showdowns.
Having got all eight of his Last 16 predictions correct, Ed Dove is far less confident ahead of the quarters, and expects cagey contests, tense finales, and tears aplenty as giants of Africa are set to fall by the wayside.
Tangier, January 9, 4pm UK/6pm CAT
On paper, the most clearcut of the four ties, with Mali the outsiders against an impressive Senegal side.
The Eagles have reached the quarterfinals for the second AFCON in a row despite having not yet won a match, drawing all three of their group-stage games before seeing off Tunisia following a 1-1 draw in Casablanca on January 3.
However, those results don’t tell the full story of Mali’s campaign, with the West Africans’ lack of creativity and guile costing them against Comoros and Zambia in the group, while they upped their game admirably against would-be tougher opponents in Morocco and Tunisia.
Certainly, the Eagles’ emotional Last 16 progression against the (admittedly poor) Carthage Eagles was admirable considering they had to play over 100 minutes with 10 men, with Lassine Sinayoko outstanding as he went it alone up front.
Ibrahim Mbaye is following in the footsteps of Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson and other Senegalese stars at the AFCON. Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside via Getty Images
Senegal haven’t been entirely imperious, despite putting three past Botswana, Benin and Sudan, with the Teranga Lions starting fixtures slowly and struggling to establish the midfield control that you’d assume would come with Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye and Lamine Camara.
The midfield zone will surely be an absolute dogfight here — no team at the tournament has completed more tackles or interceptions than Mali — and the Eagles may see this as a battle they can win… if they keep their discipline.
However, expect Senegal’s wealth of attacking options — Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr, Pape Cherif Ndiaye and wonderkid Ibrahim Mbaye have all caught the eye so far — to seal the day in this derby between neighbours.
Ed Dove’s Prediction: Senegal to advance
Rabat, January 9, 7pm UK/9pm CAT
Ahead of the tournament, Morocco would have approached this one as clear favourites, but the dynamic between these two sides has changed dramatically over the last few weeks.
The Atlas Lions have largely been impressive, although the loss of Azzedine Ounahi, growing in influence so tantalisingly into this tournament before suffering a calf problem, injury concerns around Sofyan Amrabat, and the ongoing fitness concerns about Achraf Hakimi risk having a disruptive influence.
“We haven’t yet seen Hakimi at his peak,” head coach Walid Regragui vowed to journalists on Thursday, “and that’s what we’ll see [against Cameroon].”
PSG’s Achraf Hakimi has been a worry for Morocco this AFCON, with his injury concerns restricting his minutes for the hosts. Mohamed Tageldin / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images
Regragui’s popularity is hardly improving during the tournament as he cuts a tense and nervy figure, while the team’s playing style, although accomplished, is hardly exhilarating.
Two of their matches so far have been goalless at halftime, while failure to beat Mali at home in their second group game — ending their record winning streak — dampened some expectations.
Cameroon, by contrast, have defied pre-tournament pessimism emanating from their wretched chaotic build-up to the campaign to become one of the AFCON’s darlings.
So often throughout history, the Indomitable Lions have shown their best qualities when the odds are against them and little is expected, and head coach David Pagou — parachuted in less than three weeks before the tournament began — has fostered a warm, familial, unified atmosphere in the camp, with a tactical approach that plays to the team’s (limited) strengths.
“What characterises Cameroonians is our courage,” Pagou told journalists on Thursday. “Even when there’s a mountain to overcome, it’s that mental strength that makes the difference.”
It’s all shaping up to be a compelling, if fraught, confrontation between these two heavyweights in the capital on Friday, where anything other than an early Moroccan goal (or two) would lead to a strained, uneasy and oppressive atmosphere at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium.
Ed Dove’s Prediction: Morocco to advance
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Predicting the outcome of Cameroon vs. Morocco in the AFCON quarterfinals
Colin Udoh and Leonard Solms make their predictions for the AFCON quarterfinal matchup between Cameroon and Morocco.
Marrakesh, January 10, 4pm UK/6pm CAT
Nigeria have been the outstanding team at the Nations Cup so far, scoring more goals than any other team, taking more shots, and completing more passes.
Their midfield, notably Alex Iwobi, has given them control, while the swirling attacking threats of Ademola Lookman (showing the form that once made him African Footballer of the Year), Victor Osimhen, Samuel Chukwueze and Akor Adams has given them a vibrancy and a cutting edge in attack that no other team can match.
Pre-tournament concerns about the defensive solidity have largely been unfounded, despite some nervy moments from goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali, although Algeria and their myriad offensive options represent a much sterner challenge than they’ve faced so far.
The Fennecs rivalled Nigeria as the most impressive team of the group stage, but they found the going much tougher against the Democratic Republic of Congo in the Last 16, requiring Adil Boulbina’s stunning 119th-minute winner to advance in extra time.
Against the Leopards, the defensive partnership of Aïssa Mandi and Ramy Bensebaini found themselves fraught and under pressure, while Riyad Mahrez’s influence waned before his 69th-minute withdrawal.
There’s a concern Algeria are losing steam at the wrong time, and while the exciting Mohammed Amoura and Ibrahim Maza will represent fresh new tests for this Super Eagles backline, they will struggle to contain Nigeria’s ‘AOL’ frontline.
It remains to be seen whether playing 24 hours after Nigeria, and going for 30 minutes more, will impact Algeria as they travel to Marrakesh for Saturday’s showdown.
Similarly, bubbling tension within the Nigeria camp cannot be ignored, whether it’s between Eric Chelle and the media, Osimhen and Lookman, or the Super Eagles and the NFF as the question of unpaid AFCON bonuses is leading to threats of boycotting training.
Ed Dove’s Prediction: Nigeria to advance
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Do Algeria fans believe they can overcome Nigeria?
ESPN caught up with Algeria fans following their 1-0 victory over DR Congo, as confidence grows ahead of a quarterfinal showdown with Nigeria at AFCON.
Agadir, January 10, 7pm UK, 9pm CAT
Based on the evidence of the tournament so far, the Ivory Coast have to be considered favourites here. While Egypt have looked staid, lacking invention and one-dimensional, the Elephants have looked confident, physically impressive, cohesive, and with multiple ways of hurting teams.
Amad Diallo, with three goals and an assist so far, is emerging as one of the stars of the tournament, and a genuine talisman for the defending champions, while the Franck Kessié and Ibrahim Sangaré pairing in the midfield (whether joined by Seko Fofana, Jean Michaël Seri, or Christ Oulahi) is one of the most powerful and well-rounded in the competition.
Emerse Fae, while perhaps not the most tactically proficient coach at the Nations Cup, has effectively integrated youngsters and new faces — the likes of Yan Diomande and Bazoumana Touré look the part already — while the defence hasn’t been unduly impacted by the loss of Wilfried Singo (so far at least).
For Egypt, only Omar Marmoush, in flashes, has sought to bring vitality to this side, with Mohamed Salah’s three goals to date somewhat papering over the cracks in a limited side which hasn’t improved the coaching stock of manager Hossam Hassan so far.
However, this is Egypt we’re talking about. They’re the team who took a silver medal in 2021 despite not winning a single knockout game in 90 minutes while scoring just four goals across their seven matches.
So it’s hard to confidently bet against them, particularly given the star quality in attack, but based on their tournament route so far, the defending champions are playing with a cohesion and a exuberance that the Pharaohs cannot match.
Neither Hassan nor Fae have impressed with their tactical approach to date at this Nations Cup, with questionable decisions not being punished by their opponents; don’t expect a tactical masterclass on Saturday.
Ed Dove’s Prediction: Ivory Coast to advance
