Louisville Cardinals (11-4, 1-2) vs. Boston College Eagles (7-8, 0-2)
Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.
Announcers: Tom Werme (play-by-play) and Seth Davis (analysis)
Favorite: Louisville by 22.5
Series: Louisville leads, 11-8
Last Meeting: Louisville won 84-58 on Feb. 5, 2025 in Chestnut Hill
Projected Starting Lineups:
- G Adrian Wooley (6-4, 200, So.)
- G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
- G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
- F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
- C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
- G Fred Payne (6-1, 185, So.)
- G Luka Toews (6-1, 190, So.)
- G Donald Hand Jr. (6-5, 210, Jr.)
- F Jayden Hastings (6-9, 240, So.)
- C Boden Kapke (6-11, 255, Jr.)
Boston College’s Season to Date:
All signs seem to be pointing towards year five being the end of the road for Earl Grant at Boston College. The Eagles improved steadily over Grant’s first three seasons, but still never finished better than 10th in the ACC standings. Year four saw the team win just four ACC games and finish 17th in the final league standings.
Year five seems to be going even worse.
Boston College enters the weekend ranked last in the ACC in virtually every metric available. Their ranking of 159 on KenPom is the lowest of any team from the five power conferences. They lost non-conference games to Florida Atlantic, Central Connecticut, Davidson, Tulane, LSU and UMass, and have beaten fairly handily in their first two conference games.
For the second straight season, BC’s main saving grace has been the play of star guard Donald Hand Jr. The 6’5 junior’s shooting percentages are down across the board, but the future highly-coveted transfer portal addition is still averaging 15.5 ppg, which is nearly identical to his scoring average from last season. Hand is coming off one of his more efficient shooting performances — a 4-for-8 from the field and 3-for-5 effort from deep — against NC State, but it was a game where he turned the ball over six times.
There aren’t many weapons for BC outside of Hand, which is one of the main reasons why the team enters Saturday ranked 275th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. The team’s only other double figure scorer is redshirt sophomore guard Fred Payne, who is in his third year with the Eagles. Payne is Boston College’s most consistent outside shooter as well as the best ball-handler and assist-man on the squad. U of L’s backcourt will need to do a better job defensively on their opposition than they have in recent weeks if they want the final margin in this one to be as lopsided as the oddsmakers believe it is.
Defensively, BC isn’t great, but it’s much stronger. The one thing the Eagles do exceptionally well is defend around the rim. They rank 35th in the country in 2-point% defense and 34th in block percentage. The 6’9 tandem of Aidan Shaw and Jayden Hastings are both averaging about a block and-a-half per game.
BC plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and tries to play long, defensive possessions without gambling or fouling. They want this to be a slog. It’ll be on Louisville to ensure that it isn’t.
—Louisville is 5-1 all-time in home games against Boston College.
—Louisville snapped a four-game losing streak to Boston College last season, a streak which was the longest in the all-time series for the Eagles.
—A win Saturday afternoon would be the 300th of Pat Kelsey’s coaching career.
—Boston College is 8-17 all-time when playing on January 10. The most recent contest was played against Syracuse in 2024, where BC fell 59-69 to the Orange at the Carrier Dome.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 1-0 all-time in games against Boston College.
—Boston College head coach Earl Grant is 4-3 in games against Louisville.
—Boston College ranks 25th in the nation and third in the ACC in blocks per game (5.1). Aidan Shaw (23) and Jayden Hastings (21) rank in the top ten in individual blocks.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 168-65 all-time in conference play as a head coach.
—Louisville has had four games of at least 24 assists, the first time since 2010-11 that the program has had multiple games of 24+ assists; the Cardinals had five games of at 24+ assists that season.
—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark four times in a season for the first time since 1989-90.
—Louisville is 38-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-11 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 120-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 83, Boston College 63
