What we’re hearing on the Bills: Coach Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game in his Bills tenure (0-5). In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills’ defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). The team is embracing this challenge. “Being able to just have that mentality of it’s you and your guys versus everybody else. We embrace that, and I mean, we’re excited. We could play anywhere,” DE Greg Rousseau said. — Alaina Getzenberg
What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: The headlines might be about the QBs, but this game likely will be decided on the ground: the Jaguars’ top-ranked run defense versus the league’s leading rusher in James Cook III. The Jaguars didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher in the regular season. “It’s a challenge at every level of the defense, and the running back obviously is elite,” defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile said. “Cook does a tremendous job of finding cracks. You look at some of the stuff on tape, there’s nowhere to go, and he pops through there.” — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars have a 67.8% pass block win rate, which ranks ninth best but is by far the best for a Jaguars team with QB Trevor Lawrence under center. A part of that solution? Cole Van Lanen, who took over at LT in Week 13 and has a 92% pass block win rate, which is 22nd best at the position and an upgrade over Walker Little. — Walder
Bold prediction: Bills WR Gabe Davis, who played for the Jags in 2024, will score a touchdown in his revenge game. The Bills use Davis as a short-yardage and red zone threat because of his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame. If they can’t run the ball in and need to drop back, Davis will be Allen’s preferred target. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Bills CB Taron Johnson. His ability to get to depth in Buffalo’s foundational zone coverages is key versus a Jaguars passing game that features deep in-breaking concepts. Here, Johnson can close the intermediate windows, which will limit Lawrence’s explosive play ability. — Bowen
One bet to consider: UNDER 51.5. Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and has a run-heavy offense. The Jaguars’ offense is efficient but not fast. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the fewest flags per game this season (12.9). That could help the Jaguars, who were the NFL’s third-most penalized team (9.3 per game). The Bills were tied for the sixth fewest at 6.8 per game. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Bills 27
Solak’s pick: Jaguars 23, Bills 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 30
FPI prediction: JAX, 51.5% (by an average of 0.4 points)
