The most fascinating thing about the Tarik Skubal arbitration case is that both sides think the other is trying to break established norms.
Skubal’s team, the Detroit Tigers, believes his ask for $32 million is far beyond what the system historically has dictated. Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras, believe the Tigers’ $19 million filing number does not account for two rarely cited provisions in the collective-bargaining agreement that set him apart.
By meeting both provisions — the first as a player with special accomplishments, the second as one with five or more years of service — Skubal need not compare himself only to pitchers in his class. He is permitted to argue the relevance of all players’ salaries, including those who negotiated lucrative contracts in free agency.
The expected hearing in February will take place against the backdrop of Skubal’s uncertain future in Detroit. The Tigers, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, have spent the offseason upgrading their roster. But they also have left the door open for trading Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in the game. And now that they’re picking a fight with him in arbitration, it seems more unlikely than ever they will make an aggressive bid to retain him in free agency.
The three independent arbitrators Major League Baseball and the Players Association jointly select to decide cases are notoriously unpredictable, making the outcome on Skubal anyone’s guess. But Skubal is the perfect player to test the boundaries of the system. If he remains healthy and effective in 2026, his final season of club control, he might receive $400 million in free agency. So if the panel awards him $19 million instead of $32 million — a big raise from his $10.15 million salary last season instead of a massive one — he will not exactly suffer.
It’s certainly fair to question the Tigers for not filing a higher number, but portraying this battle as simply one between team and player would be an oversimplification. MLB’s Labor Relations Department plays a role, recommending salaries for teams to offer players in arbitration. The PA advises player agents on how to best represent their clients. In some ways, the Skubal case is but a preliminary to the main event — the heavyweight bout looming between the league and union in collective-bargaining negotiations.
Juan Soto holds the record for the highest salary in arbitration — $31 million. Skubal, Boras and the union might argue that the salaries pitchers receive in arbitration should keep pace with those given to position players. The Tigers and MLB surely would counter that a raise of nearly $22 million for Skubal would be excessive, defying precedent and busting the system.
The two sides appear entrenched in their positions. People familiar with the respective positions say a hearing is all but inevitable, presuming Skubal remains with the Tigers. For all anyone knows, forcing a trade might be part of his motivation for asking the team to more than triple his salary from last season.
More likely, this is simply a case of Skubal and Boras challenging the system, with virtually nothing to lose. Skubal is a member of the union’s most prominent player arm, its eight-man executive subcommittee. Boras, meanwhile, relishes this type of fight. Another of his clients, Kris Bryant, filed a grievance in 2015 accusing the Chicago Cubs of service-time manipulation. Bryant lost and was denied an extra year of service time.
The Tigers, before exchanging salary numbers with Skubal, offered him an amount that would have broken two records for an arbitration-eligible pitcher, David Price’s $19.75 million salary and Jacob deGrom’s $9.6 million raise, according to people familiar with the discussions. That offer, however, was for less than $20 million, the sum the Tigers this season will pay a lesser pitcher, Jack Flaherty. Thus, it barely exceeded the two records.
Flaherty’s salary is the result of a contract he negotiated as a free agent, outside the confines of arbitration, a system based largely on precedent and comparison. The Tigers were willing to go higher than $20 million for Skubal but never received a counteroffer, people briefed on their thinking said. Skubal’s side evidently saw little point in advancing the discussions.
The Tigers, some in the industry contend, should have filed higher than $20 million, putting Skubal symbolically above Flaherty, creating greater distance from the deGrom and Price records and strengthening their case by raising the midpoint from $25.5 million. The way these cases generally are decided, the club wins when it proves the player is worth one dollar below the midpoint and the player wins when he proves he is worth one dollar above. In Skubal’s case, though, the midpoint might not be as relevant.
Price, the only comparable pitcher between $19 million and $32 million, was nowhere near Skubal’s midpoint. Skubal, as a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in his five-plus seasons, is unique in the history of arbitration. No pitcher in the future can make the same case unless he matches Skubal’s resume. No pitcher has in the past.
Among recent back-to-back Cy Young winners, Max Scherzer was under contract to the Washington Nationals in 2016 and ’17. Tim Lincecum was first-time eligible after his Cys in 2008 and ’09. Clayton Kershaw signed an extension between his back-to-back awards in 2013 and ’14.
The comparable the Tigers almost certainly will use is deGrom, who like Skubal was third-time eligible when he received his record raise from $7.4 million to $17 million. Skubal’s platform season was not as good as deGrom’s. Neither, at the same stage of eligibility, are his career numbers. The Tigers still offered Skubal a bigger raise than deGrom, albeit six years later. The Price figure they exceeded was from 11 years ago.
The Tigers, by filing below Price’s number, clearly intend to argue that he also should remain above Skubal, even though Price’s platform season and career numbers at the same level of service were less impressive. Price, by that point, had thrown 454 2/3 more regular-season innings than Skubal has. That’s more than two full seasons’ worth, and it helped give Price a higher overall WAR. But starting pitchers then worked deeper into games.
Like deGrom, Price had won one Cy Young, not two. But the Tigers already compensated Skubal for his first Cy last year when they settled at $10.15 million. They likely will contend that they should pay him only based on his performance last season — and that based on previous standards, their proposed raise is appropriate.
Inflation, though, isn’t the only factor Skubal can cite to justify his request.
When deGrom negotiated his record raise, he was a four-plus player, having qualified for an extra year of arbitration earlier in his career. At that level of service, the CBA did not empower him to compare himself to the highest-paid pitchers of that time.
Price had the requisite amount of service, but was coming off only a sixth-place Cy Young finish. Skubal, on the other hand, meets the service criteria at a career apex. His side likely will be eager to reference five pitchers with AAVs of more than $32 million — Zack Wheeler, deGrom, Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes — not to mention others above his midpoint.
Soto was in a similar position in 2024, his final year of arbitration. Shohei Ohtani had just agreed to a 10-year deal with deferrals that discounted his AAV to $46.1 million. Aaron Judge’s $40 million AAV in a nine-year deal also was on the books. But unlike those players, Soto had not won an MVP. Individual awards carry weight in arbitration. Soto ended up settling for $31 million — a record, but still far below Ohtani and Judge.
Skubal, with his back-to-back Cys, is in better position. But in past hearings, five-plus players hardly ever cited previously negotiated extensions and free-agent contracts. The sample of other five-plus players was typically substantial, and those comparisons were more instructive.
The special accomplishments provision, too, rarely draws mention. The last case in which that clause was prominent was Ryan Howard’s in 2008. Howard’s Rookie of the Year Award and subsequent 58-homer, 149-RBI MVP season helped him earn a $10 million award, tying the record for the highest arbitration salary at the time — in his first year of eligibility, no less.
The arbitration panel might not be swayed by arguments that were used so infrequently in the past. Skubal’s case, though, can go so many ways.
Perhaps the panel will be starstruck when Skubal’s side builds a case for him as an all-time great. Or perhaps it will be reluctant to create a new paradigm for arbitration-eligible pitchers and the system as a whole.
The panel’s decisions can be as random as a coin flip. But this is one heavy coin.
