Texans vs. Steelers Wild Card betting preview: Nico Collins First TD Scorer (+600) via Bet365

The NFL Wild Card round concludes tonight as the Houston Texans travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in a massive AFC showdown. For those looking at the player prop markets, Bet365 is highlighting star wideout Nico Collins to score the game’s first touchdown at +600 odds.

Collins has been the engine of Houston’s passing attack all season, commanding a 24.8% target share and serving as C.J. Stroud’s most reliable red-zone threat. He finished the regular season with 10 receiving scores, leading the team in both yards and touchdowns. Facing a Steelers secondary that has been susceptible to physical, alpha receivers, Collins is in a prime position to open the scoring in this win-or-go-home matchup.

Bet365 Spotlight: Nico Collins First TD (+600)

This wager targets the Texans’ star receiver to be the very first player to reach the end zone in tonight’s game.

• The Prop: Nico Collins First Touchdown Scorer
• Team: Houston Texans
• Current Odds: +600
• Model Probability: Dimers’ predictive model gives Collins a 10.4% probability of scoring the first touchdown, the highest of any player in the game.
• Red Zone Dominance: Collins saw 15 red-zone targets this season, converting five of them into touchdowns.
• Historical Production: Over his last five games, Collins has found the end zone three times, including a 12-yard score in the season finale.
• Matchup Edge: Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 1.2 passing touchdowns per game this season, often struggling to contain big-bodied receivers in single-coverage situations.

Game Details: Texans vs. Steelers (AFC Wild Card)

Essential information for tonight’s 8:15 p.m. kickoff in the Steel City.

• Teams: Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Date: Monday, January 12, 2026
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
• Spread: Texans -3 (+100) | Steelers +3 (-110)
• Moneyline: Texans -155 | Steelers +138
• Total: Over/Under 38.5 (-105/-115) Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication and are subject to change.

DimersBOT Predictions & Probabilities:

Dimers’ analytical model has performed 10,000 simulations to project the outcome of tonight’s AFC Wild Card clash.

• Win Probability: Texans (63%)
• Steelers Probability: 37%

Projected Final Score

• Houston 20, Pittsburgh 17

Summary: Texans vs. Steelers Best Bet

While the model identifies the Texans moneyline (-155) as the top game-market value, the Bet365 Nico Collins First TD (+600) is the standout choice for prop bettors. Collins’ status as the clear No. 1 option for C.J. Stroud, combined with his high target share in scoring territory, provides a significant edge in a game where Houston is favored to control the tempo. Against a Steelers unit that will likely focus on stopping the run, expect Stroud to look for Collins early and often in tonight’s primetime finale.

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 or greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply.

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