My wild-card picks went 4-2 straight-up and 3-3 against the spread, and I aim to continue those winning ways in the second round!
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence-level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-4 (pick to win, with 4 the most confident and 1 the least), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my wild-card picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 4-2 in wild-card round (188-89-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 3-2 (112-70-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 1-0 (76-19) - Overall to cover the spread: 3-3 (140-129-9)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 2-3 (113-103-8)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-0 (27-25-1)
Now let’s get into the second-round selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-1)
This matchup was the most closely rated one in my statistical analysis this week. The Bills and Broncos rate even in just about every category that I track. Buffalo has an edge in rushing offense, while Denver is the superior team in the pass-rush column. In a case like this, home field is the tiebreaker. Because the spread is only a single point, I’ll take the Broncos for the win and cover.
- Pick to win: Denver (Confidence level: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (Confidence level: 1)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
The point spread is slightly more than a touchdown because the betting public remembers that Seattle beat San Francisco by 10 points in the teams’ Week 18 battle for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The metric analysis suggests that the spread should be much closer. The 49ers rate far ahead in passing offense, but the Seahawks have an edge in rush defense and pass coverage. Those nullify each other, so this contest is dead even in the metric review. Seattle gets my straight-up win pick because of home-field advantage, but the 49ers land the spread pick.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 4)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)
Houston’s pass blocking was terrible earlier this year, but it has been so good over the past four weeks that the Texans rate ahead in that category. The Patriots have the superior ground game, but Houston’s rush defense is stout. Special teams may be a difference-maker in this contest. The Texans rate near the top here over the past month, while New England rates 28th. That’s enough to move my cover pick to Houston, but the straight-up pick goes to the Patriots.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 2)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
This matchup provided another incredibly close metric review. These teams were even in every metric category except two. Los Angeles has better pass-rush numbers. That’s enough to offset the Bears’ home-field advantage, but the Rams also have the worst special teams metrics in the NFL over the past four weeks. Chicago is above average in that category. It’s enough of a disparity to lean this game in the Bears’ direction, so Chicago is my pick to both win and cover.
- Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 4)
