Texas 2026 Poll: Talarico Leads Crockett for Democratic Senate Nomination, Cornyn and Paxton Face Potential Runoff
Cornyn outperforms Paxton in hypothetical head-to-head Senate matchups
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of the 2026 elections in Texas finds Rep. James Talarico leading the Democratic Primary for US Senate with 47%, followed by Rep. Jasmine Crockett at 38%, with 15% undecided.
“Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.”
In the Republican Primary for US Senate, incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are in a tight race: 27% support Paxton, 26% Cornyn, while 16% Rep. Wesley Hunt. Twenty-nine percent are undecided.
“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Kimball noted.
Looking ahead to the general election, hypothetical matchups were tested between Talarico, Crockett, and Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt.
In a matchup between Talarico and Cornyn, 47% support Cornyn, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Talarico, 46% support each candidate, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Talarico, 47% support Hunt, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. CQ
In a matchup between Cornyn and Crockett, 48% support Cornyn, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Crockett, 46% support both candidates, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Crockett, 48% support Hunt, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided.
Looking at the 2026 Governor election, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50% to 42%, while 8% are undecided.
President Donald Trump holds a 48% job approval rating among Texas voters, and 46% disapproval. Governor Abbott’s approval is split: 47% approve and disapprove of the job the Governor is doing.
The economy remains the most important issue for Texas voters at 28%, down two points from the August Texas poll, followed by threats to democracy at 17% (+2), immigration at 14% (-7), healthcare at 9% (+1), and housing affordability at 8% (+3).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Texas survey was conducted January 10-12, 2026. The overall sample of Texas active registered voters, n=1,165, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The Democratic Primary consists of a sample size of n=413, with a credibility interval of +/-4.8%. The Republican Primary consists of a sample size of n=550, with a credibility interval of +/-4.1%. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on US Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text (lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.
