We’re about halfway through the NBA season, and that’s the earliest I’ll start thinking about awards. Once we’re pretty sure who the All-Stars are going to be, we can really start diving into where the awards might go.
Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. However, we’ll start things off this season by using BetMGM’s current betting odds.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis is a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
On-track to be ineligible: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (missed nine games) | Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (missed 14) | Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (missed 14) | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors (missed 11)
Five honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (+5000 to win)
Brunson is having another stellar season. The highest he’s ever finished in MVP voting is fifth, which happened two years ago. The Knicks are trying to find their way to the top of the Eastern Conference, and Brunson is putting up a career-high 28.9 points per game. He’s finding great success in Mike Brown’s system, as his 60.0 percent true shooting confirms. The only issue with Brunson’s candidacy is that New York is underperforming expectations in the wide-open East. The Knicks are battling it out with the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers right now for the No. 2 seed, while the Detroit Pistons hold onto the top spot. There’s plenty of season for the Knicks to wind up No. 1. That may be what it takes for Brunson to finish in the top three of the MVP race.
4. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+3000 to win)
I’m not sure you could ask Brown to have a better first half. He’ll have a strong case to move up for a few reasons. 1) His play has been spectacular. He’s nearly averaging 30 points per game (29.5), and he’s at 5.0 assists per game. Those are both career highs. He’s doing that while also posting the best true shooting percentage (58.8) of his career and playing great defense. 2) The narrative is going to help him a lot. Jayson Tatum has yet to play this season after tearing his Achilles in last year’s playoffs. The front office gutted the team for financial purposes, and a lot of people wondered if the C’s would even make the playoffs. Brown has them in the top four. 3) The 65-game rule is going to eliminate a couple of big names, or so it seems. There will be fewer hurdles for Brown to clear to be in the running for MVP.
3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1400 to win)
Even with the Pistons slipping a little bit from their early-season dominance, Cunningham remains one of the best players in the league. The Detroit star is nearly averaging a double-double with 26.7 points and 9.7 assists per game, both of which are career highs. His rebounding (6.2) is tied for a career high. His defense is also right there, as he’s been really good in Detroit’s system and execution on that end. If anything, the Pistons need to give him some help on offense to make sure they have enough in the postseason. Maybe the outside shooting isn’t quite what you’d want it to be, but Cunningham gets to the free-throw line a lot, and it’s helping produce the best true shooting percentage (57.7) of his career. Not bad for the star of the team with the second-best record in the league.
2. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+700 to win)
This seems high. Not that Luka hasn’t been excellent, but this feels a little bit too much like the name, the jersey and the scoring average (33.6) are moving the betting odds in this direction, instead of him actually being the second-most valuable player in the NBA. Obviously, if Wembanyama or Jokić were on track to qualify, Dončić would be pushed down the list. He has missed seven games already and isn’t a lock to qualify this season if he turns an ankle or pulls a hamstring. Also, his defense has been unbelievably bad, as has his 3-point shooting (32.0 percent). But he does have a Lakers squad overperforming at 23-14, and he’s endured LeBron James not being LeBron and Austin Reaves missing significant time.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-425 to win)
Jokić would be the top guy right now if not for his knee injury putting him on the border of not qualifying. Still, Gilgeous-Alexander is a more than worthy candidate. It might feel a little flat because the Thunder started historically dominant and then sputtered uncharacteristically (for them) over the next month or so. But Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible, scoring 31.9 points, dishing out 6.4 assists per game and posting an absurd (even for him) 66.7 true shooting percentage. He’s still the best player on the best team. The race just doesn’t feel as cool because of the Jokić injury. That’s nothing SGA should have to apologize for, though.
Defensive Player of the Year
On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama | Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers (missed 10 games)
Ineligible: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks (missed 20 games)
Two honorable mentions: Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
3. Wembanyama (+600 to win)
I’m a little shocked that Wembanyama is included on DPOY odds and not the MVP odds. Not because of his MVP candidacy, but because he’s already on alert for possibly missing out on both awards because of the 65-game rule. Without the rule, he’d be more than deserving of consideration for both awards. And if you’re going to make him eligible here, why wouldn’t he be first? He’s more than just the blocked shots. His presence and execution change everything. With him on the floor, the Spurs have the best defense in the NBA. Without him on the floor, they’re league average.
Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert battle for rebounding positioning during a matchup last season. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
2. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+300 to win)
Gobert had a bit of a slow start to the season, mostly against the top teams like the rest of his Timberwolves teammates. However, his play over the last month and a half has been pretty incredible on the defensive end. Like Wemby, Gobert’s team is in the running for the best defense in the league when he’s on the court, and it looks pretty awful trying to stop anybody without him. In Gobert’s case, his team would be second with him on and drop down to the bottom five without him.
1. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (-125 to win)
I don’t think it would be ridiculous for Holmgren to win DPOY. Maybe even this year. But these odds feel a little bit like, “Who is the leading shot-blocker on the league’s best defense?” Are we sure Holmgren is the best defender on his team this season? Wouldn’t it be Alex Caruso or Lu Dort? What about Cason Wallace, who has been one of the top thieves in the league? This feels a bit like we’re giving DPOY to the Thunder’s defense through Holmgren, not totally unlike the Atlanta Hawks starting lineup getting East Player of the Month in January 2015. Holmgren has been really good defensively, but I’m surprised he’s the leading odds-getter.
Rookie of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+2500 to win)
A rough November made Edgecome’s shooting percentage a little low (42.6 percent), but his 3-point percentage is high (38.2 percent). The field-goal percentage is really the only thing you can criticize Edgecombe for. I had some scouts and experts tell me Edgecombe was holding back in college to be a good teammate and make sure everybody could try to shine. That shows at the NBA level already. He’s far more consistent in how he contributes, and he’s complementing Maxey perfectly.
2. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+500 to win)
Knueppel has been as good as advertised by the experts who swore his game would translate to the NBA level. It has so far, and it’s not just because the Hornets are bad and somebody has to score. He’s majorly contributed to their offense turning a corner the last few weeks. He’s averaging 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game with a ridiculous 63.8 percent true shooting. He hasn’t really had any lulls, either.
1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (-1000 to win)
In his first 18 games, Flagg was playing well and had some solid stats. He averaged 15.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists with 45.1/26.1/79.3 shooting splits. He came in with higher expectations to make an impact immediately, but he was also playing out of position on a bad team as an 18-year-old. Since then? My goodness. Over his last 21 games, Flagg is averaging 21.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.2 assists with 50.0/32.8/83.0 shooting splits. There was a conversation about someone overtaking him for Rookie of the Year, especially Knueppel or Edgecombe. Now, even their good play seems to be racing to second in the voting behind Flagg.
Sixth Man of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Anthony Black, Orlando Magic | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (+800 to win)
Of the top five in the sixth-man odds, Sheppard has the lowest scoring average at 12.9 per game. Scoring average goes a long way in securing this award, but Sheppard has been hyper-efficient shooting the ball and has active hands with 1.4 steals per game. Houston has really needed him without Fred VanVleet, but it’ll be difficult for Sheppard to fight off the two honorable mentions.
2. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+450 to win)
Johnson would probably be my pick right now. Even though he’s fourth among the group in points per game (13.6), his rebounding (6.3) and overall shot-making have been superior to everybody else. He’s making 56.5 percent of his shots and 41.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Both of those numbers are the highest for these five players. The Spurs have needed every minute he’s on the court, and he’s provided the perfect boost off the bench.
1. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves (+300 to win)
Reid won it two years ago, and part of me believes that’s why he’s the odds-on favorite currently. He’s the familiar name of the group. That’s not to discount his play. Reid has been huge for the Wolves. His scoring average (14.6) is lower than Black’s (15.7) and Jaquez’s (15.9). But his interchangeable ability to play next to Gobert or Julius Randle means the Wolves can match up with just about everybody.
Coach of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets | Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics
3. Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns (+350 to win)
Ott and Mazzulla are essentially interchangeable to me for the reason of qualifying the “this team is way better than anticipated this season” criterion. That’s a big part of COY honors and consideration. Yes, dominance matters, but a team coming out of nowhere to be good or great is a massive plus. Nobody thought the Suns would be good, let alone this good. Not even Mat Ishbia. He just wanted entertainment. Ott has them defending relentlessly, and they’ll threaten for a top-six spot in the West all season.
Jordan Ott has Phoenix firmly in the West playoff picture. (Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images)
2. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+350 to win)
We expected the Spurs to take a step forward, but we didn’t quite know what to expect from a Johnson squad in his first full season as the head coach. What we’ve seen is a massive leap, and instead of hoping to get a playoff spot, they’re hoping to get the No. 2 seed in the West. Yes, Wembanyama has been huge for them, but he’s also missed a ton of time. The Spurs aren’t missing a beat. Johnson has them pushing the tempo and utilizing their athleticism perfectly.
1. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons (+170 to win)
It looks like Bickerstaff is here to finish the job of getting Coach of the Year after Kenny Atkinson beat him out for it last season. This year, Bickerstaff has the top team in the conference, and it’s come with plenty of players missing time. He’s been tremendous for setting the culture and getting his young team to make defense their team identity. The award is probably his to lose at this point.
Most Improved Player
On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama | Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers (missed 15 games)
Two honorable mentions: Michael Porter Jr., Brooklyn Nets | Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks
3. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+1200 to win)
It’s weird that the 65-game rule applies to Most Improved Player, right? Here’s my reminder in case you’ve missed it: I don’t believe second-year players should be taken seriously for MIP. I think you should, at least, be in your third year. George is the perfect example of for whom this award is supposed to be. He didn’t look like he had the goods in his first two seasons. He wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t efficient or consistent. His scoring is up (16.8 to 23.8), his shooting is up (53.9 percent true shooting to 60.9) and his assists are up (5.6 to 6.9).
2. Jalen Johnson, Hawks (+225 to win)
On the surface, it feels like Johnson made this improvement in the previous season. He took a huge leap last year, but injuries kept him from being consistently in the conversation for MIP. He only played in 36 games, so he was ineligible anyway. But he managed to get even better this year. His scoring is up nearly five points per game, but he’s also nearly doubled his assist percentage while not really increasing his turnover rate. And he’s gone from a 32.3 percent 3-point shooter his first four seasons to 37.0 percent this season. He improved so much that the Hawks turned over the keys to the franchise from Trae Young to him.
1. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (-185 to win)
The two big numbers for Avdija are his scoring average going up over nine points per game (16.9 to 26.1) and his assists going from 3.9 to 6.9 per game. The Blazers’ injuries have forced Avdija to be the lead initiator on this team, and he’s taken to that role really well. His shot profile and efficiency are really good too, as we’ve seen the Blazers forward post a career-best 61.2 percent true shooting. He’s gone from a nice role player to somebody who should be an All-Star.
