The Toronto Blue Jays lost out on one of their biggest offseason targets when outfielder Kyle Tucker signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but one MLB insider is offering a bit of perspective on where Toronto still stands.
The Blue Jays have been one of the most active teams this winter, adding some major pieces to their lineup and bolstering the rotation with some major improvements. The team is looking to move beyond the heartbreaking World Series loss, and could be on track to return even after losing out on Tucker, the insider shares.
Blue Jays Still Expected to Top American League
Shortly after Tucker’s mega deal with the Dodgers hit the news, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal broke down what the signing meant for the Dodgers and for the other teams pursuing the outfielder. Rosenthal shared that the Blue Jays are already favorites to win the American League this year.
“The Jays are a strong bet to repeat as American League champions even after striking out on Tucker,” Rosenthal wrote. “They have spent more than any other team in free agency, with a combined $337 million on right-hander Dylan Cease, infielder Kazuma Okamoto, reliever Tyler Rogers and right-hander Cody Ponce. And their outfield already is in good shape, at least for 2026.”
Landing Tucker would have also been very expensive for the Blue Jays, Rosenthal added.
“Per Fangraphs, the Jays’ luxury-tax payroll is beyond the highest threshold at $304 million, meaning they would have paid a 90 percent tax for every dollar they awarded Tucker in 2026,” Rosenthal wrote. “The Dodgers will pay a 110 percent tax on every dollar they are above. (They will be penalized at a higher rate than the Jays would have been for exceeding the base threshold three or more consecutive years; the Jays have done it two straight.)”
There would have been other benefits had the Blue Jays landed Tucker, beyond the obvious upgrade to their lineup, Rosenthal wrote. He suggested it would have “capped a remarkable shift in perception” for the franchise, putting them on par with heavy hitters like the Dodgers as a team expected to be involved for all free agents.
“But the Jays already were in a better place, as evidenced by the rest of their offseason. And even without Tucker, they should remain a force,” Rosenthal wrote.
Bo Bichette Decision Coming Next
The Blue Jays still have another big decision coming as infielder Bo Bichette decides whether to return to Toronto or land with one of his other suitors. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested that losing Tucker “increases the chances of a reunion with Bichette” in Toronto, but noted that he has expressed concern about how taxing it is on his body to play on Toronto’s artificial turf.
The Blue Jays are facing some major competition for Bichette, with the Philadelphia Phillies holding a meeting with him this week.
“That said, Bichette is very close with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and likes the idea of the pair playing their entire careers as lifelong Blue Jays,” Feinsand wrote. “But the Phillies are lurking as serious contenders for Bichette, who held a Zoom meeting with them last week.”
