Do you watch football to see strength against strength? Powerful gladiators trying to surpass an army of killer defenders amassed to destroy them? Well then, welcome to the AFC Divisional Round matchup of the Patriots (and Drake Maye) against the Texans.
This is, by far, the hardest challenge that Maye and the Patriots offense have faced all season. The Patriots did not play a single game against a pass defense ranked in the DVOA top eight. Now they have to face the Texans, who ranked only behind the Seahawks. This is a defense with talent at all three levels. There’s great coverage, a merciless pass rush, and stalwart run defense.
Of course, there’s another side of the ball as well. There, C.J. Stroud will try to overcome the weird fumbles of last week’s win over the Steelers while the running game tries to carry over the success it had against Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense has been much better in the second half of the season and had its two best games of the season in the past two weeks (against the Dolphins and Chargers) even after adjusting for the opponents.
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HOU (13-5)
NE (15-3)
DVOA
18.9% (4)
10.5% (9)
WEI DVOA
26.8% (3)
26.5% (4)
Texans on Offense
HOU OFF
NE DEF
DVOA
-2.5% (19)
5.5% (23)
WEI DVOA
0.3% (15)
-4.5% (13)
PASS
17.6% (15)
16.0% (25)
RUSH
-16.8% (29)
-8.1% (17)
Patriots on Offense
HOU DEF
NE OFF
DVOA
-19.3% (2)
16.2% (3)
WEI DVOA
-24.0% (2)
21.9% (2)
PASS
-18.7% (2)
44.2% (2)
RUSH
-20.0% (2)
-6.9% (21)
Special Teams
HOU
NE
DVOA
2.1% (11)
-0.1% (20)
Unlike the Patriots offense, the Texans defense played plenty of top-10 teams. They had six games against offenses in the top 10 for passing DVOA. On average, those quarterbacks went 19-for-31 for 229 yards with 1.3 touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions, and 2.8 sacks. It’s not quite as bad as you might expect, especially since the San Francisco game was Mac Jones and the second Indianapolis game featured Riley Leonard.
Any preview of this game really has to start with looking for weaknesses on the Texans defense. Those are very hard to find, but here are three things that might qualify as weaknesses.
First, the Texans are a surprising 18th against the pass on third down. The good news for Houston is that most of these are third-and-longs, and being average means you are still going to get off the field more often than if you faced a lot of third-and-shorts.
Second, if you can get past the Texans pass rush, they allow a lot of yardage on scrambles. The Texans allowed 9.2 yards per scramble, and only the Bills were worse. Last year, Maye faced the Texans in his first-ever NFL start, and he had five carries for 38 yards.
Third, the Texans defense is actually not all that good in the red zone. Houston falls from second in DVOA overall to 17th in the red zone. However, that’s a big headline for both teams in this game. The Patriots offense drops to 16th in the red zone. And both the Patriots defense and the Texans offense rank 31st in the red zone. Advantage: nobody.
Otherwise, what we have is a bunch of stats about how good the Texans defense and Patriots offense were. For example, nine different Texans defenders were listed in the FTN charting data with at least 100 coverage snaps. Seven of them had negative (i.e. good) coverage DVOA. The exceptions were fourth cornerback Tremon Smith and linebacker Henry To’oTo’o. Smith will likely not see the field without an injury but To’oTo’o is someone you can target. The Patriots might be able to get a big play if they can get Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson on him on a wheel route.
When the Patriots do run the ball, their adjusted line yards are better on the right side, and that is where the Texans defense is somewhat less effective. The Patriots have been much better running the ball in recent weeks, ranked seventh in run offense DVOA since Week 10.
Back to the pass: We have the Texans blitzing at a league low 21.2% and in the first week of the playoffs they blitzed only 10.5% of the time. That’s good because Drake Maye was the second-best QB in the league against the blitz. Without a blitz he “only” was eighth with 17.7% DVOA.
Can you beat the Texans with quick game? Maybe. They are ninth in defense allowing 9.0% DVOA on quick throws. Maye is sixth with 40.5% DVOA on these throws. Texans are good against screens and Patriots are only average on screens.
Now let’s turn our attention to when the Texans have the ball. The Texans pass offense has improved in recent weeks, going from 19th in DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to 10th in Weeks 10-19. However, the Patriots pass defense has also improved, going from 28th in Weeks 1-9 to ninth in Weeks 10-19. (Their run defense, on the other hand, has declined from fifth to 22nd.)
Both coverage and pressure have been better for the Patriots since Week 10. For example, they had a 23.8% pressure rate in Weeks 1-9, which ranked 28th in the NFL. They had a 31.5% pressure rate from Week 10 to Week 18, which ranked 11th, and they led all Wild-Card Round teams with a 43.2% pressure rate against the Chargers.
C.J. Stroud struggled on deep passes before Week 10, with -14.7% DVOA and 9.4 yards per pass. From Week 10 to 18, he was outstanding, with 65.4% DVOA and 12.6 yards per pass. That doesn’t include last week’s 16.4 yards per pass with the two deep passes to Christian Kirk.
Remember what I said above about Texans defenders and coverage DVOA? The Patriots had seven defenders with at least 100 coverage snaps and another four with between 75 and 80. Ten of those 11 defenders had positive (i.e. bad) coverage DVOA once opponent adjustments were applied. The only exception was Christian Gonzalez.
Despite Gonzalez’s strong play, the Patriots were a surprising 31st in DVOA against WR1s. Gonzalez simply didn’t travel with the opposing WR1 as much as he did a year ago. We might be seeing Gonzalez on the Texans’ best receiver, Nico Collins, except both Gonzalez and Collins are in concussion protocol. Gonzalez, who has been practicing fully, seems closer to playing than Collins, who did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.
While the Texans do not want to blitz Maye, the Patriots do want to blitz Stroud. He was ninth with 16.7% DVOA without a blitz, but 22nd at 0.0% DVOA with a blitz.
Another matchup of strength against strength: the Patriots were much better on offense from 11 personnel (27.8% DVOA, second) compared to 12 personnel (2.6% DVOA, 13th). However, the Texans defense is much better against 11 (-27.8% DVOA, first) than against 12 (-9.3% DVOA, seventh).
On the ground, the Texans were not very good all season but they did have their best running game of the year against the Steelers last week. The Texans will want to use more zone blocking than man blocking, as the Patriots allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry on runs we marked as man blocking.
Each team has their advantage on special teams. Ka’imi Fairbairn tied an NFL record by kicking 44 field goals this season despite missing two games. Because of adjustments for playing indoors, he was only ninth in my field goal values, but still: he’s good. Otherwise, the Texans special teams are close to average. The Patriots have an ultra-dangerous punt returner, Marcus Jones, who had two touchdown returns this season. However, rookie Andy Borregales was the second-worst kicker in the league in gross kickoff value, in part because he was third in touchbacks. Also, the Patriots had poor punt coverage, allowing 12 punt returns over 10 yards including a touchdown.
