For the gambling degenerates, here are my NFL Divisional Round picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Bills at Broncos (-1.5): The Broncos sack the quarterback a lot. They led the NFL with 68 sacks this season. They also only gave up 23 sacks on offense, which tied for the league low. They were +45 sacks on the season, or 2.6 more sacks per game than their opponents. Their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks – and also keep their own quarterback clean – was their biggest strength this season. They will have a significant advantage in the trenches over this Bills team, at least in the passing game. And that’s kind of a big deal.
Normally, I’m a “trenches” guy with my picks, as in, give me the team that is significantly better up front instead of the team with the high-profile quarterback. But in this case, I just can’t bring myself to trust Bo Nix over Josh Allen. Nix will be playing in his second ever NFL playoff game (his only playoff game was a blowout loss to the Bills), while Allen will be playing in his 15th.
And I think the perception is that Allen has been a postseason choker. That’s really not true. He’s kind of been the victim of some poor Bills defensive performances against guys like prime Patrick Mahomes, but he has typically played very well. Allen is 8-6 in his playoff career, with 26 TDs vs. 4 INTs, plus over 700 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs. In the Wild Card Round against the red hot Jaguars, he completed 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards, a passing TD, 2 rushing TDs, and a game-winning drive.
Maybe this is reductive analysis, but I’ve seen Allen win a lot of playoff games, and I haven’t seen Nix do that yet. Give me the Bills.
49ers at Seahawks (-7): In Week 18, the Seahawks played the 49ers for the 1 seed in the NFC, and the Seahawks simply beat them up physically for four quarters in a 13-3 win that wasn’t nearly as close as the score would indicate.
The Seahawks have a smashmouth run-heavy approach on offense, and a swarming defense. The Niners, meanwhile, got even more banged up in the Wild Card Round, losing George Kittle to a torn Achilles. They’re also playing on a short week and had to travel back from the east coast while the Seahawks will be rested and fresh.
I don’t expect the Seahawks to go quite as B.T.A. on the Niners as they did Week 18, but they are clearly the much better team, even with Sam Darnold questionable with an oblique injury. Seahawks to win, Niners to cover the 7 points.
Texans at Patriots (-3): The Texans have an outstanding defense and a regular season turnover differential of +17. They also enter this matchup on a 10-game winning streak after a 3-5 start to their season. And yet, they are one of the more difficult teams to trust, because they don’t have much of a rushing attack, and C.J. Stroud has a tendency to go cold for long stretches of games. (That actually kinda sounds familiar.)
The most lopsided matchup in this game is Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter against rookie LT Will Campbell and almost 35-year-old RT Morgan Moses. I really wanted to take the Texans in this matchup, but I believe that their edge rush could be slowed down a bit by what could be sloppy weather conditions.
I also just like Drake Maye’s ability to make plays with his legs in the cold temps more than Stroud’s. Give me the Pats to win, but the Texans to cover the 3 points.
Rams (-3.5) at Bears: As we noted in this week’s Hierarchy, the Bears have had an absurd number of wild comeback victories this season, most of which came against bad teams.
Bears opponent Time left ESPN win probability Result Week 4: Raiders Q4, 9:04 80.7% Raiders Bears W Week 6: Commanders Q4, 11:27 84.1% Commanders Bears W Week 9: Bengals Q4, 0:42 85.9% BengalsBears W Week 10: Giants Q4, 5:35 96.9% Giants Bears W Week 11: Vikings Q4, 0:50 75.1% Vikings Bears W Week 16: Packers Q4, 4:26 98.8% Packers Bears W WC: Packers Q4, 6:36 95.4% Packers Bears W
They’ve had an incredibly entertaining season, but it’s only a matter of time before a good team gets a lead on them, and then closes them out. That’ll be the Rams this week.
It should be noted that there will be nasty weather in this game. Cold and windy. Both teams like to run the ball, and they both do it well, so that’s kind of a wash.
Caleb Williams is obviously the far more mobile quarterback in this matchup, and he will make some plays with his legs, but I have a lot more trust in Matthew Stafford’s throwing accuracy in poor conditions, and the Rams’ receivers’ ability to gobble up yards after the catch.
Survivor pick ☠️
We reset with a new playoff survivor pool, because why not?
This week it gets harder, because you have to think about making sure you have at least one unused Super Bowl participant available.
Of the remaining teams that I haven’t used yet, I like the Seahawks’ chances of winning the Super Bowl best, which means that I have to take AFC teams this week and next week. So I guess I’ll take the Pats this week, and then either the Bills or Broncos next week.
• Wild Card Round: Rams ✅
• Divisional Round: Patri*ts
Also, after being -15 at one point in my picks against the spread this season, it looked like a certainty that I would finish under 0.500 for the first time in my career. I did make a comeback and get close to 0.500, but I currently sit at -6, at 52-58-2. There are only 7 games left in the NFL this season, so I pretty much have to go four for four this weekend, or my first losing season ever will be clinched.
• Picks against the spread: Bills (+1.5), 49ers (+7), Texans (+3), Rams (-3.5)
• Eagles picks: 10-8
• 2025 season, straight up: 178-97-1 (0.646)
• 2025 season, ATS: 52-58-2 (0.473)
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 501-434-24 (0.535)
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