Here’s a look at the specifics for our dangerous wintry blast today through Tuesday.
First off, nothing has changed in the thinking overnight. It’s a gradual heavy lake-effect snow for the western third of lower Michigan and an off-and-on snow shower pattern anywhere east of Grand Rapids into the east side of lower Michigan.
Wind gusts will increase this morning, with most of us having at least 35 mph gusts for a few hours today.
Temperatures are going to hold steady or drift colder by a few degrees. The cold temperatures, combined with steady 20 mph winds will make frigid wind chills well below zero degrees.
One thought for the east side of lower Michigan- This isn’t a heavy snowstorm for you. You get just an inch or two, and that snow really blows around. The snow will be so dry it could blow off some of the roads. But remember- road salt stops working around 15 degrees, which will be our temperature this afternoon.
Here’s the radar forecast for today. A circulating, heavy snow area is going to rotate through the Traverse City region this morning with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour for a few hours. As the morning progresses the more widespread lake-effect snow will fan out over western lower Michigan. Also, during the afternoon the long band of lake-effect will stretch over towards Jackson and Ann Arbor.
Radar forecast from 5 a.m. to 11 p.m. today, January 19NOAA
Here is the total snowfall expected. It will be hard to measure with the blowing and drifting. Just consider it heavy snow through noon Tuesday anywhere west of U.S. 131. Just east of U.S. 131 expect two to four inches. From U.S. 127 eastward into the eastern half of lower Michigan expect just one to two inches of snow.
Total snow forecast from this morning to noon Tuesday.NOAA
The winds are going to be very gusty, producing at least occasional blizzard conditions over western lower Michigan.
Here is the wind gust forecast through the day. The highest gusts decrease in speed this evening. Before then most of us will get peak gusts over 35 mph. The most dangerous gusts will occur along the Lake Michigan shoreline. U.S. 31 should be avoided unless it’s an emergency. Also, one very interesting condition showing up is a lake-induced mesovortex. This is the red colored semi-circular area that will swing through the Traverse City area and then sweep across to the Saginaw Bay and Thumb. The vortex could produce brief gusts to 50 mph.
Wind gust forecast from this morning to 11 p.m. this evening. Note the strong gusts in red, associated with a lake-induced mesovortex. Gusts near 50 mph are possible in the red patch.NOAA
Gradually colder temperatures and the strong gusts mean wind chills will become dangerously cold this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Wind chill forecast from noon today to 9 a.m. TuesdayNOAA
Tomorrow morning will have wind chills across Michigan in the -15 to -25 degree range.
Since the snow is so dry, expect whiteouts today during the strongest winds. The wind diminishes down to 20 mph tonight. That’s still a strong wind for this cold, but the blowing and drifting will lessen some.
Driving conditions will be very dangerous today through Tuesday morning over the western half of Michigan and occasionally dangerous over the eastern half of Michigan.
Stay updated with any weather changes at MLive.com/weather.
