Final Oscar Nominations Predictions via Feinberg Forecast

A NOTE FROM SCOTT Set your alarms! On Thursday morning, at the ungodly hour of 5:30 a.m. PT, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will reveal its nominations for the 98th Oscars. As always, I will be at the Academy’s Beverly Hills headquarters for the announcement, excited to finally learn the answers to the questions that have been keeping me up for months, and will then hustle home to write up an analysis of what happened.

With the membership of the Academy now larger (some 11,000 members) and more spread out (25 percent outside of the U.S.) than ever, accurately projecting the noms is, I dare say, harder than ever. But below, you will find my best guesses of how things will shake out in each of the 24 categories — up one from last year, thanks to the introduction of the best casting Oscar — drawing upon screenings of all of the top contenders, conversations with a wide cross-section of voters and in-depth historical and statistical analysis.

In short, I expect the most noms to go to Sinners (15, which would break the record of 14 currently shared by 1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic and 2016’s La La Land), followed by One Battle After Another (12, including a record-tying five acting noms) and, in a tie for third, Frankenstein and Hamnet (11 each). Only once before have four films broken into double digits, six years ago.

In terms of companies, Warner Bros. — currently in a tug-of-war between Netflix and Paramount — will easily lead the field. Between Sinners, One Battle, F1, Weapons and Superman, I anticipate 32 noms, which would be the most for a single company since Netflix landed 35 five years ago. Trailing behind will be Netflix (19 between Frankenstein, Train Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor and a couple of shorts), Neon (17 between Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident) and Focus (15 between Hamnet and Bugonia).

Across all categories, I expect a strong — and possibly unprecedented — showing for non-English-language films (those international voters are not deterred by subtitles, and far fewer English-speakers are than used to be), and a bruising day for people not associated with best picture nominees (there has been an influx of younger voters, many of whom are too busy to see a large number of films, resulting in heavy coattails for the films that they do see and like).

Of course, there also will be, as always, surprise inclusions and omissions, which make the whole thing all the more fun and heartbreaking. We’ll be covering every aspect of the day and the season at THR.com, so be sure to bookmark that URL, as well as this one to specifically access my latest coverage, and this one to catch my Awards Chatter podcast, which features career-encompassing interviews with many of the top contenders.

Good luck and godspeed to us all!

• Best Picture

  Image Credit: Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
  2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
  3. Hamnet (Focus)
  4. Marty Supreme (A24)
  5. Frankenstein (Netflix)
  6. Sentimental Value (Neon)
  7. Train Dreams (Netflix)
  8. Bugonia (Focus)
  9. The Secret Agent (Neon)
  10. Sirat (Neon)

  Alternate
  F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)

  Potential Surprise
  Nuremberg (Sony Classics)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)

• Best Director

  Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix

  Projected Nominees
  1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
  2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
  3. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
  4. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
  5. Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2

  Alternate
  Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)

  Potential Surprise
  Oliver Laxe for Sirat (Neon)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)

• Best Actor

  Image Credit: © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
  3. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
  4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon) — podcast
  5. Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast

  Alternate
  Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast

  Potential Surprise
  Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Bill Skarsgard for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)

• Best Actress

  Image Credit: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
  2. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
  3. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)
  4. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
  5. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — podcast

  Alternate
  Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast

  Potential Surprise
  Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — podcast 1 and 2

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Tessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)

• Best Supporting Actor

  Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
  2. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
  3. Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)
  4. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
  5. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast

  Alternate
  Miles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)

  Potential Surprise
  Jacobi Jupe for Hamnet (Focus)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Kevin O’Leary for Marty Supreme (A24)

• Best Supporting Actress

  Image Credit: Quantrell Colbert/Warner Bros.

  Projected Nominees
  1. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
  2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcast
  3. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
  4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)
  5. Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast 1 and 2

  Alternate
  Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast

  Potential Surprise
  Regina Hall for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Tânia Maria for The Secret Agent (Neon)

• Best Adapted Screenplay

  Image Credit: Netflix

  Projected Nominees
  1. Hamnet (Focus) — Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
  2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
  3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
  4. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy
  5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1 and 2

  Alternate
  Nuremberg — James Vanderbilt

  Potential Surprise
  Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rian Johnson — podcast

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century) — Scott Cooper

• Best Original Screenplay

  Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
  2. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
  3. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
  4. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
  5. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi

  Alternate
  Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow

  Potential Surprise
  Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Left-Handed Girl (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)

• Best International Feature

  Image Credit: Neon

  Projected Nominees
  1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)
  2. Spain — Sirat (Neon)
  3. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)
  4. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
  5. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)

  Alternate
  Japan — Kokuho (GKIDS)

  Potential Surprise
  Iraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Classics)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Italy — La Grazia (Mubi)

• Best Documentary Feature

  Image Credit: Netflix

  Projected Nominees
  1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
  2. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (still seeking U.S. distribution)
  3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
  4. The Alabama Solution (HBO)
  5. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)

  Alternate
  Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)

  Potential Surprise
  Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  My Mom Jayne (HBO)

• Best Animated Feature

  Image Credit: Disney

  Projected Nominees
  1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
  2. Zootopia 2 (Disney)
  3. Arco (Neon)
  4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
  5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony/Crunchyroll)

  Alternate
  Elio (Disney/Pixar)

  Potential Surprise
  The Bad Guys 2 (Universal)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  In Your Dreams (Netflix)

• Best Casting

  Image Credit: Neon

  Projected Nominees
  1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
  2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
  3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
  4. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold
  5. Sirat (Neon) — Nadia Acimi & Luís Bértolo

  Alternate
  The Secret Agent (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues

  Potential Surprise
  Sentimental Value (Neon) — Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut

• Best Cinematography

  Image Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures / Apple Original Films

  Projected Nominees
  1. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
  2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
  3. Hamnet (Focus) — Lukasz Zal
  4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
  5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen

  Alternate
  Marty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji

  Potential Surprise
  F1 (Apple) — Claudio Miranda

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Linus Sandgren

• Best Costume Design

  Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh/Amazon

  Projected Nominees
  1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
  2. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Paul Tazewell
  3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter (podcast)
  4. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska
  5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi

  Alternate
  Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Lindsay Pugh

  Potential Surprise
  Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Colleen Atwood & Christine Cantella

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Song Sung Blue (Focus) — Ernesto Martinez

• Best Film Editing

  Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
  2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver
  3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
  4. Hamnet (Focus) — Affonso Gonçalves & Chloé Zhao
  5. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione

  Alternate
  Sentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté

  Potential Surprise
  Frankenstein (Netflix) — Evan Schiff

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Viridiana Lieberman

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  Image Credit: A24

  Projected Nominees
  1. Frankenstein (Netflix)
  2. The Smashing Machine (A24)
  3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
  4. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
  5. Marty Supreme (A24)

  Alternate
  Nuremberg (Sony Classics)

  Potential Surprise
  The Ugly Stepsister (IFC)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  28 Years Later (Sony)

• Best Original Score

  Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix

  Projected Nominees
  1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
  2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny Greenwood
  3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
  4. Hamnet (Focus) — Max Richter
  5. Sirat (Neon) — Kangding Ray

  Alternate
  Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell (podcast)

  Potential Surprise
  Tron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  The Long Walk (Lionsgate) — Jeremiah Fraites

• Best Original Song

  Image Credit: Jenna Rosher

  Projected Nominees
  1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen
  2. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson & Alice Smith — listen
  3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson — listen
  4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren (podcast) — listen
  5. “Dream as One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Miley Cyrus (podcast), Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson (podcast) & Andrew Wyatt — listen

  Alternate
  “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner — listen

  Potential Surprise
  “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile & Andrea Gibson — listen

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Daniel Blumberg

• Best Production Design

  Image Credit: 20th Century Studios

  Projected Nominees
  1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell
  2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler
  3. Hamnet (Focus) — Fiona Crombie
  4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk
  5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Dylan Cole & Ben Procter

  Alternate
  Bugonia (Focus) — James Price

  Potential Surprise
  Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Nathan Crowley

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Roofman (Paramount) — Inbal Weinberg

• Best Sound

  Image Credit: Universal Studios

  Projected Nominees
  1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
  2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
  3. Frankenstein (Netflix)
  4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
  5. Sirat (Neon)

  Alternate
  Wicked: For Good (Universal)

  Potential Surprise
  One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Marty Supreme (A24)

• Best Visual Effects

  Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros.

  Projected Nominees
  1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
  2. Frankenstein (Netflix)
  3. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
  4. Superman (Warner Bros.)
  5. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)

  Alternate
  Sinners (Warner Bros.)

  Potential Surprise
  The Lost Bus (Apple)

  Shoulda Been a Contenda
  Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.)

• Best Animated Short

  Image Credit: Locksmith Animation/Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. Retirement Plan
  2. Cardboard
  3. I Died in Irpin
  4. Playing God
  5. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

  Alternate
  Butterfly

  Potential Surprise
  The Shyness of Trees

• Best Documentary Short

  Image Credit: Courtesy of Filmmakers

  Projected Nominees
  1. We Were the Scenery
  2. All the Empty Rooms
  3. Last Days on Lake Trinity
  4. Classroom 4
  5. Cashing Out

  Alternate
  All the Walls Came Down

  Potential Surprise
  Heartbeat

• Best Live-Action Short

  Image Credit: The New Yorker/Courtesy Everett Collection

  Projected Nominees
  1. Extremist
  2. Rock, Paper, Scissors
  3. Two People Exchanging Saliva
  4. A Friend of Dorothy
  5. The Singers

  Alternate
  The Boy With White Skin

  Potential Surprise
  Jane Austen’s Period Drama