No rest for the wicked (sorry, that’s my last one of those), it’s time for first Oscar winner predictions of the season.
The Oscar nominations gave us a lot to chew on yesterday. Most notably, the record-setting haul earned by Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with its 16 nods, more than any film in Academy history. It maxed out in every category that it could, including the Delroy Lindo in Supporting Actor nomination after he missed all precursors (outside of making the BAFTA longlist). That shows nothing but strength for the Warner Bros horror hit and it’s probably safe to say that it’s walking in the door of the Dolby with Original Screenplay, Original Score (making Ludwig Göransson a three-time winner), Cinematography (making Oscar history for Autumn Durald Arkapaw as the first woman to win) and maybe Best Casting.
Is that enough to push it to a Best Picture and Best Director win? Are Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku or Lindo win-competitive? If not, it will be the first Best Picture winner since 2017’s The Shape of Water to have all nominated actors lose. Sidebar, the Parasite comp I see floating around is not a valid one, at all. A Best Director win would make Coogler the first Black winner in that category in the Academy’s 98 years–a spectacular and important narrative–but he’ll need to win DGA in two weeks and the film needs PGA (a full month from now) for that to happen. It could happen. But, momentum and narrative have to meet and…
…it’s One Battle After Another that has both right now. Paul Thomas Anderson, now a 14-time Oscar nominee without a win, has the juice. He has the film, a singular overdue narrative, and the potential wins in place to be the Best Picture winner. But, like Coogler, a DGA win two weeks is a must. Then PGA. The film is win-competitive for SAG Cast (and the Casting Oscar) but that’s just one example where Sinners and One Battle are likely going to be 1/2 in several categories. In my estimation right now, One Battle has Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing (but this is a crucial category this year). Best Actor and Supporting Actor are on the table.
What’s fascinating, and wonderful, about the One Battle vs Sinners race (and I see it as complimentary vs adversarial) is that not only are they both critical and box office hits, they both share space in the narrative of being culturally vital films right now. Sinners has done more to shift the mindset of awards voters of all kinds to take horror seriously and not as a disposable genre. It merges historical context, cultural appropriation and white supremacy from a hundred years ago that is frighteningly still at the forefront of relevance. OBAA also directly confronts modern day racism and systemic power abuse whose every moment feels ripped from current headlines. Both do it in less than straightforward ways, Sinners using horror, One Battle using dark comedy, to keep their stories from feeling preachy or academic. They both represent not only the evolution of the filmmaker but of the audience. While I’ve seen some people entertaining a Best Picture/Best Director split, that’s not what is in front of us here. Each of these films are singular visions by their creators telling personal stories and these wins will go hand in hand or not at all.
Categories outside of the above mentions that I feel safe about right now, with the caveat that the guilds and/or BAFTA could change that: Jessie Buckley in Best Actress, Frankenstein winning Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. The Perfect Neighbor winning Documentary Feature (it’s hurdle was the nomination, there’s nothing stopping it now), KPop Demon Hunters in Animated Feature, F1 in Sound, Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
I’ll have deeper breakdowns of categories in upcoming Frontrunner Fridays. For now, here are my first 2026 Oscar winner predictions of the season.
BEST PICTURE
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, ProducersCCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)2. Sinners (Warner Bros)
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, ProducersCCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)3. Sentimental Value (NEON)
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, ProducersCCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)4. Hamnet (Focus Features)
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, ProducersCCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)5. Marty Supreme (A24)
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, ProducersCCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)6. Frankenstein (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, ProducersCCA, GG, SAG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)7. Bugonia (Focus Features)
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, ProducersCCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)8. The Secret Agent (NEON)
Emilie Lesclaux, ProducerGG9. Train Dreams (Netflix)
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, ProducersCCA, PGA10. F1 (Apple Original Films)
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, ProducersPGA
DIRECTING
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)CCA, DGA, GG (BAFTA longlist)2. Sinners (Warner Bros.), Ryan CooglerCCA, DGA, GG (BAFTA longlist)3. Sentimental Value (NEON), Joachim TrierCCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)4. Hamnet (Focus Features), Chloé ZhaoCCA, DGA, GG (BAFTA longlist)5. Marty Supreme (A24), Josh SafdieCCA, DGA (BAFTA longlist)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme (A24)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)2. Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)3. Michael B. Jordan in Sinners (Warner Bros.)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)4. Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)5. Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (NEON)CCA, GG
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet (Focus Features)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)2. Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (NEON)CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)3. Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)CCA, GG , SAG (BAFTA longlist)4. Emma Stone in Bugonia (Focus Features)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)5. Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (NEON)CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)2. Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (Netflix)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)3. Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)4. Sean Penn in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)5. Delroy Lindo in Sinners (Warner Bros.)(BAFTA longlist)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)2. Amy Madigan in Weapons (Warner Bros.)CCA, GG, SAG (BAFTA longlist)3. Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners (Warner Bros.)CCA, SAG (BAFTA longlist)4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value (NEON)CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)5. Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value (NEON)CCA, GG
CASTING
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Francine MaislerCCA, CSA (BAFTA longlist)2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Cassandra KulukundisCCA (BAFTA longlist)3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Nina GoldCCA, CSA (BAFTA longlist)4. Marty Supreme (A24); Jennifer VendittiCCA, CSA (BAFTA longlist)5. The Secret Agent (NEON); Gabriel Domingues
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Written by Paul Thomas AndersonCCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)2. Hamnet (Focus Features); Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’FarrellCCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)3. Bugonia (Focus Features); Screenplay by Will TracyCCA (BAFTA longlist)4. Train Dreams (Netflix); Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg KwedarCCA (BAFTA longlist)5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Written for the Screen by Guillermo del ToroCCA (BAFTA longlist)
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Written by Ryan CooglerCCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)2. Sentimental Value (NEON); Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim TrierCCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)3. Marty Supreme (A24); Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh SafdieCCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)4. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics); Written by Robert Kaplow(BAFTA longlist)5. It Was Just an Accident (NEON); Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi MahmoudianGG (BAFTA longlist)
FILM EDITING
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Andy JurgensenCCA (BAFTA longlist)2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Stephen MirrioneCCA (BAFTA longlist)3. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Michael P. ShawverCCA (BAFTA longlist)4. Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh SafdieCCA (BAFTA longlist)5. Sentimental Value (NEON); Olivier Bugge Coutté
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.), Autumn Durald ArkapawASC, BSC, CCA (BAFTA longlist)2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Michael BaumanASC, BSC, CCA (BAFTA longlist)3. Marty Supreme (A24), Darius KhondjiASC, BSC (BAFTA longlist)4. Train Dreams (Netflix), Adolpho VelosoASC, CCA (BAFTA longlist)5. Frankenstein (Netflix), Dan LaustsenASC, BSC, CCA (BAFTA longlist)
COSTUME DESIGN
1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate HawleyCCA, CDG (BAFTA longlist)2. Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia TurzanskaCCA, CDG (BAFTA longlist)3. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. CarterCCA, CDG (BAFTA longlist)4. Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi(BAFTA longlist) 5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L. ScottCDG
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane VieauADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist)2. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique ChampagneADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist)3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice FeltonADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist)4. Marty Supreme (A24); Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam WillisADG, CCA, SDSA (BAFTA longlist)5. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony CarlinoADG, SDSA (BAFTA longlist)
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ludwig GoranssonCCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist)2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Jonny GreenwoodCCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist)3. Hamnet (Focus Features); Max RichterCCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist)4. Bugonia (Focus Features); Jerskin FendrixHMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist)5. Frankenstein (Netflix); Alexandre DesplatCCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL (BAFTA longlist)
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy ParkCCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.); Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig GoranssonCCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass/Greenwich Entertainment); Music and Lyric by Diane WarrenHMMA (documentary), SCL4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix); Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner, Lyric by Nick CaveCCA, GG5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (Viva Verdi!); Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
SOUND
1. F1 (Apple Original Films) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan PeraltaCCA, MPSE (x2)2. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve BoeddekerCCA, MPSE (x3)3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony VillaflorCCA, MPSE (x3)4. Sirāt (NEON); Amanda VilCCA, MPSE5. Frankenstein (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad ZoernMPSE (x3)
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Frankenstein (Netflix); Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona FureyCCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist)2. Kokuho (GKIDS); Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu3. Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika TerryCCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist)4. The Smashing Machine (A24); Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern RehbeinCCA, MUAH (BAFTA longlist)5. The Ugly Stepsister (Independent Film Company/Shudder); Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century/Walt Disney); Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel BarrettCCA, VES (x10) (BAFTA longlist)2. F1 (Apple Original Films); Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith DawsonCCA, VES (x2) (BAFTA longlist)3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie DeanCCA, VES (x1)4. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal Pictures); David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil CorbouldVES (x1) (BAFTA longlist)5. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films); Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlinVES (x4) (BAFTA longlist)
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. WongAnnie, CCA, GG, PGA2. Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney); Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett MerinoAnnie, CCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)3. Arco (NEON); Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie PortmanAnnie, CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri MagalonAnnie, CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)5. Elio (Walt Disney/Pixar); Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice DrummAnnie, CCA, GG, PGA (BAFTA longlist)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix); Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam BisbeeCCA, CEH, DGA, PGA (BAFTA longlist)2. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple Original Films); Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef WillenCEH3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PINK); Nominees to be determinedPGA (BAFTA longlist)4. Cutting Through Rocks; Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza EyniDGA5. The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films); Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte KaufmanCCA, PGA
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. Norway, Sentimental Value (NEON)GG (BAFTA longlist)2. Brazil, The Secret Agent (NEON)CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)3. France, It Was Just an Accident (NEON)CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)4. Spain, Sirât (NEON)CCA, GG (BAFTA longlist)5. Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab (WILLA)GG (BAFTA longlist)
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada); Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski2. Butterfly (Sacrebleu Productions); Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens3. The Three Sisters (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures); Konstantin Bronzit4. Retirement Plan; John Kelly and Andrew Freedman5. Forevergreen; Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
1. All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones 2. Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO); Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo3. The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir4. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins5. Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
1. The Singers (Netflix); Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt2. Two People Exchanging Saliva (Canal+/The New Yorker); Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata3. Butcher’s Stain (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television); Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama; Julia Aks and Steve Pinder5. A Friend of Dorothy; Lee Knight and James Dean
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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