There is no looking back for the Toronto Raptors at this point.
As it stands, FanDuel has them listed at -1100 to make the playoffs, a 91.7 per cent implied probability.
The Raptors keep popping up in every single blockbuster trade rumour whether it’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis or Anthony Davis.
So, is a paradigm shifting trade incoming? I’d wager no.
But there is something to take away from all the noise.
Toronto’s name doesn’t once come up as a seller.
They’re always a rumoured buyer which indicates how the front office views this current roster.
Adding a superstar player will undoubtedly push those playoff odds even higher, but even without a move, the Raptors have shown enough to stay above the play-in tournament.
Jakob Poeltl has missed 19 straight games yet they’ve managed to go 12-7.
They didn’t just survive over this period; they thrived registering the sixth-best defensive rating.
As it stands, they sit three games out of the play-in.
Tonight’s contest is sneakily a critical game against one of the teams capable of usurping them in the Top 6.
After a disheartening collapse against the New York Knicks, here are three bets I’m eyeing ahead of a testy matchup.
Jalen Suggs under 14.5 points (-106)
The Raptors defence has overachieved during this period without Poeltl which is in parallel with their entire season.
They’ve held opponents to 34.2 percent from three which is second-best in the NBA.
Now that it’s been 49 games, there’s no sample size excuse; the data clearly says Toronto guards the three-ball at an elite level.
This aligns with betting against Suggs who takes just under half of his field-goal attempts from deep.
Coming back from a second injury in a month, Orlando has been slowly ramping him back up.
Over these first three games back from the MCL injury, he’s yet to clear 30 minutes.
His shooting has also been rusty – he’s gone 32.4 percent from the field and 12.5 percent from deep.
The other reason why I see opportunity here?
His role on offence is being Wally Pipped by Anthony Black.
Sitting at +4000 as the sixth-choice for Most Improved Player on FanDuel, Black has carved out a permanent role in their offence.
Prior to the first injury Suggs suffered on December 13th, Black was averaging 13.0 ppg.
Since then, he’s up to 19.5 ppg which includes five games where Suggs was active.
The Gonzaga star has seen his usage rate dip from 24.1 to 20.8 post-injury.
To top it off, he’s gone under 14.5 points in 17-of-26 games this year, the majority of which were prior to Black’s emergence.
Paolo Banchero over 4.5 assists (-106)
Sticking to Toronto’s defence, they’ve shown some consistent tendencies of late against opposing primary scorers.
Take a look at the game log of recent superstars against their season-averages:
Jalen Brunson – 13 points vs. 27.6 ppg
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 24 points vs. 32.0 ppg
Stephen Curry – 16 points vs. 27.3 ppg
Luka Doncic – 25 points vs. 33.6 ppg
Toronto likes to send extra help early, forcing opponents to score via their secondary options.
Now, is there a world where they let Banchero cook?
Yes there certainly is.
But after shooting over 53 percent and averaging 31.7 points this week, I anticipate the Raptors sending doubles often.
To his credit though, he’s a rather underrated passer.
He finished with a 23-15-10 triple-double the last time they played in December.
Since that game, he’s cleared 4 or more assists in 13-of-14.
Unless the Raptors overhaul their principles, I expect them to take the ball out of Banchero’s hands.
RJ Barrett over 14.5 points (-120)
On the theme of defensive tendencies, Orlando is very intentional about not sending help.
When ball-handlers are driving to the hoop, rarely do the other four Magic defenders peel off their assignments unless absolutely necessary.
This has resulted in them allowing the fourth-fewest three-point attempts while sitting bottom-10 in points in the paint allowed.
This is why my attention is on Barrett – the best on the team at getting into the paint.
67 percent of his FGAs come around the rim which aligns with this Orlando defence that’s quietly been the sixth-worst since Franz Wagner’s injury.
They also own the seventh-highest foul rate which matches up with Barrett’s aggressive style of play.
I’m certainly cautious about the minutes restriction he’s on but in an important game for Toronto, I expect his usage to be high when he’s on the court.
Prior to his most recent injury, he’s cleared 15 points in 19-of-23 games.
