Arsenal v Manchester City title race: Fixture analysis as Gunners chances slip by 17% – The Athletic

The Premier League title feels that bit further away for Arsenal after last Sunday’s home defeat by Manchester United. While Mikel Arteta’s team still hold a four-point lead at the top of the table, their recent shaky form has called into question the Gunners’ championship credentials.

As recently as January 17, Arsenal had an 84 per cent chance of winning the title, according to Betfair. Having picked up just two points from a possible nine against Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and Manchester United, that percentage has now dropped to an, admittedly still formidable, 67 per cent.

Manchester City’s form has also faltered in recent weeks with Pep Guardiola’s side winning just one of their last five league games, raising questions about their ability to mount a challenge. Nonetheless, the Premier League title race is very much alive and February’s fixtures could hold the key in deciding how it plays out.

Arsenal

Next five fixtures: Leeds United (A), Sunderland (H), Brentford (A), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Chelsea (H)

The bruise from last Sunday’s result will take some time to disappear, even with the good vibes of the Champions League. The good news for Arsenal, however, is a favourable run of fixtures coming up that should allow them to rebuild momentum in the title race.

Indeed, the Gunners won’t face an opponent higher than eighth in the table before the start of March. Having said that, Saturday’s trip to Elland Road could be tricky.

Leeds are a completely different proposition since Arsenal’s 5-0 thumping of them back in August. This is especially true of Leeds at home — Daniel Farke’s team have won three and drawn two of their last five league games at Elland Road.

Upcoming fixtures against Leeds, Sunderland and Brentford will test Arsenal in a similar way. Brentford have scored more counter-attack goals (nine) than any other Premier League team this season, while Leeds and Sunderland are a threat in quick transition.

Leeds, Sunderland and Brentford all rank in the top eight for long balls per game, hinting at how they will attempt to unsettle Arsenal by playing quickly and directly into open space.

Arsenal aren’t always the most creative against low defensive blocks, illustrated by the fact they rank 17th in the Premier League for percentage of goals from open play this season. Their upcoming opponents could frustrate by sitting deep and staying organised.

Strangely, the matches against Tottenham and Chelsea at the end of February and the start of March might suit Arsenal better. The tactical match-up in these games could be more favourable.

Only five teams have conceded more set-piece goals than Chelsea this season while Spurs haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last four league games. Many will expect Arsenal to make a statement against two of their closest rivals.

A big benefit of finishing in the top eight of the Champions League league stage is that Arsenal won’t have two play-off matches to clutter their schedule over the next month.

Should Arsenal reach the Carabao Cup final — they are 3-2 up against Chelsea ahead of Tuesday’s semi-final second leg at the Emirates — that won’t take place until mid-March. After a period of fighting on four different fronts, Arteta and his players can fully focus on the title race for the time being.

Manchester City

Next five fixtures: Tottenham Hotspur (A), Liverpool (A), Fulham (H), Newcastle United (H), Leeds United (A)

Manchester City are hardly in the sort of form that suggests another Premier League title is heading their way, but Pep Guardiola’s team can’t be discounted when four points is all that separates them from top spot.

Sunday’s meeting with Tottenham will be a good barometer of where City are right now. Guardiola’s side have lost three of their last four encounters with Spurs — including the second game of the season back in August when the north Londoners hit City on the break.

Recent defeats by Bodo/Glimt and Manchester United have further highlighted City’s vulnerability in defensive transition. Injuries to Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol haven’t helped.

City have used the January transfer window to bolster their depleted squad with Marc Guehi arriving from Crystal Palace. With Dias hurt and Gvardiol sidelined for another month, Guehi is already being asked to hold things together at the back.

Antoine Semenyo has also hit the ground running, registering four goal contributions in his first four games since arriving from Bournemouth. Only a handful of players are averaging more dribbles per game than Semenyo (1.7) this season.

On paper, City appear to have the more challenging run of fixtures between now and the start of March than Arsenal.

Trips to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Anfield and Elland Road await, although Spurs’ record of just two wins from their last 14 home games isn’t much reason for City to fear that particular away day.

Manchester City were one of five Premier League clubs to finish in the top eight of the Champions League group stage, meaning they missed out on a two-legged play-off and further fixture congestion in February.

Manchester City are in the midst of a generational transition. They have lowered the average of their squad over the last year and are discovering a new identity under Guardiola. This process has resulted in some inconsistencies.

However, a flawed team is destined to win the Premier League this season. Arsenal have their weaknesses. City have them too. This reality points to there being many more twists and turns as the season gets closer to a conclusion.

Aston Villa

Next five fixtures: Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Leeds United (H), Wolves (A)

Emery continues to insist Aston Villa aren’t title contenders this season, and he’s probably right. The Villans are over-performing in a lot of their underlying metrics and most expect them to fall away at some point.

Nonetheless, Emery’s team are just four points behind Arsenal and level with Manchester City on 46 points as they continue to show a propensity for picking up points by winning the most from losing positions in the entire league (above). They must be taken seriously, especially because they have a relatively favourable run of fixtures coming up.

Three of Villa’s next five games are at home with their two away days against a Bournemouth side struggling for form and Wolves, the team rooted to the foot of the table. Emery might have changed his tune after this.