Welcome to my 2026 Breakout picks for each MLB Team! My goal for this article is to highlight unheralded players that I believe can take a substantial leap in production next season and carve out of a meaningful role for their respective teams. I did this exercise last season to what I would call a resounding success. I correctly predicted 10 full-fledged and 4 partial breakouts, giving me ~50% success after discounting injured players. I hope to have comparable results this season as I constrain myself by similar limitations.
Inspired by NaeNaeTakes on Twitter, I have implemented the following restrictions for picking by breakout candidates:
- No Current Top 100 Prospects (Intersection of TJStats and MLB Pipeline)
- No Players with a 2+ fWAR Season (Fangraphs)
- At most 2:1 Pitcher to Batter Ratio
The only change which I made this season was considering my Top 100 Prospect List in addition to MLB Pipeline. I decided on an intersection of lists rather than a union because I felt it would form more of a “consensus” ranking. The tail-end prospect lists tend to be very fluid, and I only wanted to exclude players that are widely regarded as Top 100 Prospects. The other rules stayed the same. I used fWAR because it is my preferred WAR framework and the 2:1 Pitcher to Batter ratio was a limitation for me because I would have named 90% pitchers if I could.
For each team, I named one (1) breakout candidate and wrote a small blurb on each, including my confidence level (inspired by R.J. Anderson of CBS). I also included a secondary breakout candidate with the goal to highlight at least one batter and pitcher for each team. Overall, my method of selection was mainly analytically driven, but I needed to balance playing time considerations. I focused on opportunity because it is impossible to breakout if you rarely play. Because of this, I prioritized players currently on the 26-Man roster. I did consider those on the 40-Man if I believed there was a simple path to playing time. To add some more fun into the exercise, I included a “Longshot Pick” to highlight some prospects that I feel could make an impact in the near future, but do not have a clear path to playing time.
Another Note: If there are any meaningful roster moves that may impact my selections between now and the start of the season, I will update my picks accordingly.
Let’s get to the Breakout Candidates!
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cristian Mena — RHP
Cristian Mena
P, Age: 23, Throws: R, 6′ 2″/170 lbs
DOB: 2002-12-21, San Francisco de Macoris, Dominican Republic
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
6.2
1.35
0.90
30.8%
11.5%
4.04
0.1
2026 Proj
36.0
3.92
1.31
22.1%
8.5%
3.97
0.3
Cristian Mena is a pitcher I cannot quit. Even though his MiLB numbers have been pedestrian, his breaking balls make me confident he can be a positive contributor to the Diamondbacks next season. His curveball is a strong offering that sits in the high 80s with distinct gyro action. It returned an exceptional 46.0 Whiff% in AAA last year, and he is comfortable throwing it in all counts. His sweeper posted similar results against RHH thanks to its rising two-plane action. Unfortunately, Mena arsenal does not feature a dependable fastball to complement his secondaries. This limitation makes me wary of his long-term outlook as a starter, but I would not count him out of cracking the Diamondbacks Opening Day roster. Their bullpen is in dire need of help, and Mena stands out among their MiLB arms with prior MLB experience.
Confidence: Low — Mena might be lower in the pecking order than I expect.
Batter Pick: Adrian Del Castillo, C — Del Castillo struggled mightily with strikeouts last season but has a chance to be the DBacks primary DH.
Longshot Pick: Mitch Bratt, LHP — Command artist who could support a shallow rotation (on 40-man)
Athletics
Denzel Clarke — CF
Denzel Clarke
CF, Age: 25, B/T: R/R, 6′ 4″/220 lbs
DOB: 2000-05-01, Toronto, Canada
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
47
159
3
6
38.4%
3.8%
75
1.3
2026 Proj
92
399
8
13
33.2%
7.7%
85
1.2
Denzel Clarke is arguably the best defender in MLB. His unprecedented stretch of elite defense propelled him up the OAA and DRS leaderboards before he exhausted prospect status. Unfortunately, a hip injury stalled Clarkes meteoric rise to defensive stardom, and his poor offensive production made it difficult for the Athletics to grant him an everyday role. I do, however, have some faith that Clarke can improve his bat to a passable level and secure a full-time role in 2026. His whiff rates, particularly in-zone, were not as alarming as his 38.4 K% would suggest, and he has consistently shown patience throughout his MiLB career. The power-speed combination is undeniable, and if he can put more balls in play, his results should improve substantially. I am not expecting his bat to reach league-average levels, but if it becomes playable, Clarke could be in line for a potential three-win season.
Confidence: Medium — He just needs playing time. The only roadblock would be that his bat is unplayable.
Pitcher Pick: Jack Perkins, RHP — Perkins has some great stuff, but injury concerns and playing time questions may restrict him heavily.
Longshot Pick: Braden Nett, RHP — Deep arsenal with striking stuff (on 40-man)
Atlanta Braves
Hurston Waldrep — RHP
Hurston Waldrep
P, Age: 23, Throws: R, 6′ 2″/210 lbs
DOB: 2002-03-01, Cairo, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
56.1
2.88
1.19
24.0%
9.6%
3.21
1.2
2026 Proj
140.0
4.29
1.41
20.4%
10.0%
4.26
1.3
Hurston Waldrep flew through MiLB following his first-round selection in the 2023 draft on the strength of an elite splitter. He carried that success all the way to the majors just over a year later but initially struggled to translate his minor league dominance at the big-league level. The most glaring issue was Waldrep fastball shape. His four-seamer was easily his least effective offering and was frequently crushed before he could deploy his wipeout splitter. To address this, Waldrep developed a cutter and a sinker to give him alternative fastballs early in counts and help him get ahead. His second stint in the majors was far more fruitful, as he logged 56.1 innings with a 2.88 ERA and 3.21 FIP. By all accounts, he was one of the better arms in the National League after the All-Star break, and all signs point to Waldrep opening next season in the Braves rotation. He has both the talent and opportunity to break out in 2026.
Confidence: High — Waldrep is pencilled in as the Braves #5 Starter.
Batter Pick: Nacho Alvarez, SS — Alvarez might start the season as the Braves Opening Day SS. He is a strong defender and has an 80-Grade name.
Longshot Pick: JR Ritchie, RHP — Innings eater with a polished arsenal (not on 40-man)
Baltimore Orioles
Kade Strowd — RHP
Kade Strowd
P, Age: 28, Throws: R, 6′ 2″/200 lbs
DOB: 1997-09-17, Fort Worth, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
26.1
1.71
1.10
22.9%
12.4%
3.40
0.2
2026 Proj
60.0
4.26
1.41
21.0%
10.2%
4.38
-0.1
Kade Strowd became a breakout target the moment I reviewed his pitching summary. His stuff screamed high-leverage reliever, and he has a real opportunity to make his case for that role in 2026. His cutter was menacing during his brief MLB stint last season thanks to its ability to saw off bats. He complements it with a pair of mid-90s fastballs – a cut-ride four-seamer and a tailing sinker – along with two breaking balls: an extremely steep two-plane curveball and a big sweeping slider. Together, they form one of the deepest arsenals in the Orioles bullpen. Command has long held Strowd back, but given the quality and depth of his pitches, I have a hard time envisioning him failing.
Confidence: Medium — Strowd’s lacklustre command might limit his MLB time this season, although I think his stuff is good enough to stick around.
Batter Pick: Coby Mayo, 1B — The Orioles offense had slim pickings for breakout candidates, so I went with the post-hype prospect in Mayo.
Longshot Pick: Cade Povich, LHP — Funky lefty in a shallow rotation (on 40-man)
Boston Red Sox
Johan Oviedo — RHP
Johan Oviedo
P, Age: 27, Throws: R, 6′ 6″/275 lbs
DOB: 1998-03-02, Havana, Cuba
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
40.1
3.57
1.21
24.7%
13.5%
4.92
0.2
2026 Proj
115.0
4.26
1.34
22.6%
9.6%
4.24
1.1
Johan Oviedo was slated to be my Pirates breakout pick before being traded to the Red Sox earlier this winter. My confidence in Oviedo stems from how impressive his arsenal looked following his return from Tommy John surgery. His fastball underwent a significant overhaul, highlighted by a massive uptick in ride (~10″ to 15″ iVB) paired with a lower release and nearly 7.5 feet of extension. This transformed the pitch from a pedestrian offering into a plus-plus weapon according to pitch models. The new fastball shape plays exceptionally well off his secondaries thanks to the contrast in movement profiles. Oviedo will be competing for a rotation spot in Boston, but I am confident he can lock down a starting role at some point in 2026.
Confidence: High — Oviedo will stick with Boston, but his usage is far from concrete. I still expect at least 100 IP – well more than enough to make an impact.
Batter Pick: Romy Gonzalez, 1B — Gonzalez consistently makes hard contact and is going to crush LHP. Right now, he is projected to open the season as the Red Sox everyday 2B.
Longshot Pick: Kristian Campbell, 2B — Post-hype prospect without much of a path to playing time (on 40-man)
Chicago Cubs
Porter Hodge — RHP
Porter Hodge
P, Age: 24, Throws: R, 6′ 4″/230 lbs
DOB: 2001-02-21, Salt Lake City, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
33.0
6.27
1.58
27.2%
12.2%
5.89
-0.6
2026 Proj
50.0
4.02
1.35
25.8%
12.0%
4.10
0.0
After his impressive showing to close out the 2024 season, Porter Hodge looked destined to win the Cubs closer role entering last year. Unfortunately, a myriad of injuries, including a left oblique strain, a left hip impingement, and a right shoulder impingement, limited Hodge to just 33.0 uninspiring innings in the majors. Thankfully, Hodge is expected to be healthy for the start of Spring Training, and I still believe he has the stuff to cement himself as a high-leverage arm for the Cubs. His cut-ride fastball and big sweeping slider grade out exceptionally well in pitch models and give him the foundation to post strong strikeout rates while limiting hard contact. He is not projected on the 26-man roster currently, but I expect that to change with a strong spring.
Confidence: Medium — The Cubs bolstered their bullpen up a lot this offseason, so Hodge may not have a spot to start the season.
Batter Pick: Tyler Austin, 1B — Austin’s return to MLB will be fun to track as the Cubs plan to utilize him in a short-side platoon role.
Longshot Pick: Jonathon Long, 1B — The bat will play, but the Cubs are deep (not on 40-man)
Chicago White Sox
Miguel Vargas — 3B
Miguel Vargas
3B, Age: 26, B/T: R/R, 6′ 2″/225 lbs
DOB: 1999-11-17, Havana, Cuba
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
138
569
16
6
17.6%
9.8%
100
1.3
2026 Proj
139
602
18
7
18.8%
11.0%
105
2.0
Miguel Vargas is shaping up to be a popular breakout pick entering 2026. Projections expect him to build on a solid 2025 season and become a key contributor to a rapidly improving White Sox lineup. Vargas makes smart swing decisions and does not have many glaring deficiencies in his offensive profile. His bat-to-ball skills and power metrics hover around league average, and he consistently makes ideal contact to keep the ball off the ground. He is expected to open the season as a middle-of-the-order bat while playing every day at third base. This is one of the easier breakout picks to make, but sometimes the obvious choice is the correct one.
Confidence: High — Vargas is locked into the White Sox lineup and projected to play every day.
Pitcher Pick: Jordan Leasure, RHP — Leasure has the stuff to excel in a high leverage role and potentially be the White Sox long-term closer.
Longshot Pick: Tanner McDougal, RHP — Power righty who cleaned up his command (on 40-man)
Cincinnati Reds
Noelvi Marte — OF
Noelvi Marte
OF, Age: 24, B/T: R/R, 6′ 2″/216 lbs
DOB: 2001-10-16, Cotui, Dominican Republic
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
90
360
14
10
23.6%
4.4%
100
1.1
2026 Proj
128
553
17
15
22.0%
6.4%
94
0.5
Noelvi Marte has yet to fully flash his prospect pedigree with the Reds across parts of three seasons. He took a noticeable step forward in 2025, slashing his strikeout rate by nearly eight percentage points while improving his plate discipline and quality of contact across the board. The power upside remains immense, as his 116.7 MPH Max EV sits comfortably within the top five percent of MLB. If Marte can sustain his refined approach and contact gains, he could exceed even the most optimistic projections. It certainly helps that he is expected to serve as the Reds everyday right fielder in 2026.
Confidence: High — Marte will be the Reds Opening Day RF and has flashed the talent to be an offensive force.
Pitcher Pick: Zach Maxwell, RHP — Zach Maxwell is destined to be the Reds closer in the near future. He effortlessly throws a fastball which sits at 100 MPH and supports it with a mid 90s cutter and blazing sweeping slider. He has had no issues generating strikeouts throughout his career, and that trend held as he registered a 30.2 K% in his 10-inning sample last season. He has, without a doubt, some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, but he is not without flaws. His poor command has resulted in putrid walk rates throughout his career, and it is not expected to be any easier as he tries to make a name for himself in the Reds bullpen.
Longshot Pick: Héctor Rodríguez, LF — Aggressive power bat and Reds OF is shallow (on 40-man)
Cleveland Guardians
Joey Cantillo — LHP
Joey Cantillo
P, Age: 26, Throws: L, 6′ 4″/225 lbs
DOB: 1999-12-18, Honolulu, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
95.1
3.21
1.26
26.9%
10.5%
3.55
1.5
2026 Proj
144.0
3.80
1.32
24.9%
10.3%
4.02
1.5
Joey Cantillo was my breakout pick for the 2025 season, and while I considered that selection a success, I believe he has the talent to take an even bigger leap in 2026. He is currently projected to round out the Guardians rotation after posting strong results last year, including a 3.21 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 95.1 innings. The key to Cantillo success is a devastating changeup that returned a staggering 49.4 Whiff% and served as a reliable put-away pitch. He pairs it with two breaking balls that are effective at generating weak contact. The primary concern surrounding Cantillo long-term viability as a starter is his pedestrian fastball, which lacks both velocity and ideal shape. This likely caps him as a backend starter, which would still represent an excellent outcome for the former 16th-round pick.
Confidence: High — Cantillo is projected to start the season as the Guardians #5 Starter.
Batter Pick: C.J. Kayfus, 1B — Kayfus should have plenty of playing time as the Guardians DH where his above average power metrics should shine.
Longshot Pick: Kahlil Watson, LF — Former top draft prospect with power (on 40-man)
Colorado Rockies
Troy Johnston — OF
Troy Johnston
OF, Age: 28, B/T: L/L, 5′ 11″/205 lbs
DOB: 1997-06-22, Tacoma, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
44
121
4
2
21.5%
6.6%
108
0.2
2026 Proj
63
273
7
8
20.3%
6.7%
92
0.2
Troy Johnston took a long road to the majors after being selected in the 17th round of the 2019 draft out of Gonzaga. He has been productive throughout his professional career thanks to his ability to drive line drives to all fields while maintaining solid strikeout and walk rates. Johnston is projected to serve as the Rockies everyday first baseman, where his skill set should play well in the expansive outfield at Coors. While I would not expect much home run output due to his limited raw power, the rest of his offensive tools should allow him to be one of the Rockies more productive hitters.
Confidence: Low — Despite my optimism, he is still a Rockies player.
Pitcher Pick: RJ Petit, RHP — Petit was one of my favourite options in the Rule 5 draft, and the Rockies certainly agreed.
Longshot Pick: T.J. Rumfield, 1B — Newest Rockie with a balanced offensive profile (not on 40-man)
Detroit Tigers
Troy Melton — RHP
Troy Melton
P, Age: 25, Throws: R, 6′ 4″/210 lbs
DOB: 2000-12-03, Newport Beach, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
45.2
2.76
1.01
20.0%
8.3%
4.60
0.1
2026 Proj
121.0
4.19
1.29
20.4%
7.2%
4.22
1.2
Troy Melton burst onto the scene last year with a 2.99 ERA and 2.54 FIP across AA and AAA before finishing the season in a hybrid starter-reliever role with the Tigers. He quickly gained attention due to his impressive pitch mix and eye-popping strikeout rates in the minors. Melton throws three fastballs, with his four-seamer standing out as a clear plus offering thanks to its mid-90s velocity, shallow approach angle, and elite extension. He complements them with two breaking balls and a nasty splitter that could become a nightmare for LHH. Melton will compete with Drew Anderson for a rotation spot this spring, leaving his role somewhat unsettled. Even so, he is projected to log enough innings to be an integral part of the Tigers pitching staff in 2026.
Confidence: Medium — Melton might not end up starting in the rotation, but he should have an MLB role for most of the 2025 season.
Batter Pick: Wenceel Pérez, RF — Pérez is going to play everyday and provide solid defense with adequate hitting.
Longshot Pick: Max Anderson, 2B — Big breakout in 2025 and can play the infield (not on 40-man)
Houston Astros
AJ Blubaugh — RHP
AJ Blubaugh
P, Age: 25, Throws: R, 6′ 2″/190 lbs
DOB: 2000-07-04, Mansfield, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
32.0
1.69
0.88
28.2%
8.9%
4.42
0.1
2026 Proj
53.0
4.40
1.36
21.3%
9.4%
4.54
0.1
I was more confident in this breakout pick earlier in the winter when the Astros were in dire need of starting pitching depth. Following the additions of Burrows and Imai, I no longer see a clear pathway for Blubaugh to open the season in the rotation, but that does not mean I am out on him for 2026. In his brief stint with Houston last season, Blubaugh looked strong out of the bullpen, posting a 1.69 ERA and 28.2 K% across 32.0 innings alongside a noticeable velocity jump. His underlying metrics, including a 4.42 FIP, were less flattering and accompanied by a sky-high fly-ball rate that stood in stark contrast to his minor league profile. As a reliever, Blubaugh trimmed his arsenal to feature his three best pitches: a mid-90s fastball with moderate ride, a big sweeping slider, and a changeup with heavy arm-side run. This foundation makes me confident he can sustain success in relief and transition smoothly into a starting role if needed.
Confidence: Low — It is unlikely Blubaugh will crack the rotation this season, but a reliever role is not out of the question. Unfortunately, he is on the outside looking in right now.
Batter Pick: Cam Smith, RF — Smith quickly graduated from prospect status following his draft and could take a hold of a starting role in the Astros shallow OF.
Longshot Pick: Miguel Ullola, RHP — Erratic righty with a killer fastball (on 40-man)
Kansas City Royals
Luinder Avila — RHP
Luinder Avila
P, Age: 24, Throws: R, 6′ 3″/195 lbs
DOB: 2001-08-21, Caracas, Venezuela
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
14.0
1.29
0.93
28.6%
10.7%
2.14
0.2
2026 Proj
42.0
4.25
1.38
20.2%
9.6%
4.21
0.0
Luinder Avila joined the Royals in mid-August to fortify their bullpen, and what followed was unexpected. Avila posted an excellent 2.14 FIP across 14.0 innings while flashing two damage-suppressing fastballs and a sweeping curveball with absurd movement. Given the Royals deep rotation, Avila time as a starter in 2026 will likely be limited. I am hopeful he can carve out a bullpen role, as his stuff clearly plays in shorter spurts.
Confidence: Low — Avila is not expected to start the season in the Royals bullpen.
Batter Pick: Isaac Collins, LF — Collins technically goes against my restrictions (2.6 fWAR in 2025), but the Royals have no other intriguing hitters. I’ll give myself a pass because it is just my secondary pick.
Longshot Pick: A.J. Causey, RHP — Funky side-arm reliever (not on 40-man)
Los Angeles Angels
Reid Detmers — LHP
Reid Detmers
P, Age: 26, Throws: L, 6′ 2″/210 lbs
DOB: 1999-07-08, Nokomis, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
63.2
3.96
1.30
30.1%
9.4%
3.12
1.2
2026 Proj
145.0
4.08
1.25
25.9%
8.6%
3.87
2.2
After a year where Reid Detmers posted a 3.96 ERA and 3.12 FIP across 61 relief appearances, he is making his return to the rotation in 2026, and this time it might be different. It was reported that Detmers will not be held to any innings restriction next season, which gives him ample opportunity to make the most of his newfound starting role. The young lefty has had mixed results throughout his career but put it all together out of the bullpen in 2025, as his fastball and slider effortlessly generated chases and whiffs. He exhibited more refined command, which is the aspect that evaded his prior forays in the rotation. I will be laser-focused on Detmers this spring and will be interested to see if he reintroduces an off-speed pitch – an integral offering for any southpaw starter – into his mix to further bolster my optimism.
Confidence: High — Detmers is safely in the Angels rotation and has no specified innings limit.
Batter Pick: Nolan Schanuel, 1B — If Schanuel can improve his power slightly, he could be a force at the top of the Angels lineup.
Longshot Pick: George Klassen, RHP — Angels top prospect with a high-90s fastball and nasty slider (not on 40-man)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ben Casparius — RHP
Ben Casparius
P, Age: 26, Throws: R, 6′ 2″/215 lbs
DOB: 1999-02-11, Westport, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
77.2
4.64
1.27
21.3%
6.3%
3.57
1.3
2026 Proj
52.0
4.62
1.34
21.9%
8.8%
4.53
0.0
Ben Casparius was my Dodgers breakout pick in 2025, and although I considered that selection a success, I think he has another gear to his game. He bounced around in different roles during the 2025 season, including a partially successful stint as a starter. Overall, the results were solid, as he posted a 3.57 FIP, and I believe he can take another step next season. Casparius is keen on improving, and the development of his arsenal encapsulates that mindset. He is expected to latch onto a full-time role in the Dodgers bullpen, and he has the stuff to break out in 2026.
Confidence: Medium — Casparius having options makes him an easy demotion option if needed, which makes his MLB playing time hard to project.
Batter Pick: Dalton Rushing, C — The Dodgers bench is mostly there for technical reasons, and I like Rushing the most from that group. He should also have consistent playing time even if it is not much.
Longshot Pick: River Ryan, RHP — Older pitching prospect returning from TJS with wicked stuff (on 40-man)
Miami Marlins
Griffin Conine — LF
Griffin Conine
LF, Age: 28, B/T: L/R, 6′ 1″/210 lbs
DOB: 1997-07-11, Plantation, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
24
86
2
0
29.1%
8.1%
102
0.0
2026 Proj
92
399
13
1
33.1%
9.6%
91
0.2
Griffin Conine was my Marlins breakout pick for 2025 after an encouraging MLB cup of coffee to close out the 2024 season. He was penciled in for regular at-bats after mashing his way through the minors, but a shoulder injury just weeks into the 2025 campaign limited him to only 24 games. Fortunately, Conine returned during the final week of the season and is ready to man first base for the Marlins in 2026. He was lauded for his immense raw power as a prospect, and his breakout hinges on whether he can translate that power into MLB results. Conine is a patient hitter with a similar skill set to breakout Marlins All-Star Kyle Stowers and will be given every opportunity to take a leap next season.
Confidence: Medium — Conine is expected to be the Marlins’ everyday 1B against RHP.
Pitcher Pick: Josh White, RHP — White was arguably the most dominant reliever in MiLB last season and is expected to start the season with the Marlins.
Longshot Pick: Bradley Blalock, RHP — Newly acquired Marlin finally away from Coors with intriguing stuff (on 40-man)
Milwaukee Brewers
Garrett Mitchell — CF
Garrett Mitchell
CF, Age: 27, B/T: L/R, 6′ 2″/228 lbs
DOB: 1998-09-04, Orange, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
25
78
0
3
32.1%
9.0%
65
0.4
2026 Proj
94
406
10
14
29.9%
9.6%
98
1.5
Garrett Mitchell injuries have derailed his MLB career. Since debuting in 2022, Mitchell has appeared in just 141 games at the Major League level. During that span, he has posted a 114 wRC+ while providing strong defensive value in center field. While I am skeptical he can fully sustain his offensive production given his poor contact skills, Mitchell wields a lightning-quick bat and pairs it with a patient approach. Projections peg him as a league-average hitter, which should be sufficient for Mitchell to deliver a productive season – assuming his glove convinces the Brewers he deserves consistent playing time.
Confidence: Medium — The Brewers OF depth makes Mitchell’s current role unclear.
Pitcher Pick: Robert Gasser, LHP — Gasser was the next big thing in Milwaukee before TJS wiped out nearly two seasons. He will likely operate out a bullpen role, where I expect him to excel.
Longshot Pick: Luke Adams, 3B — Patient bat-first prospect with great MiLB results (not on 40-man)
Minnesota Twins
Zebby Matthews — RHP
Zebby Matthews
P, Age: 25, Throws: R, 6′ 5″/225 lbs
DOB: 2000-05-22, Cullowhee, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
79.1
5.56
1.49
24.9%
6.8%
3.79
1.4
2026 Proj
124.0
3.96
1.23
23.6%
5.8%
3.78
1.8
Zebby Matthews endured a disappointing 2025 campaign, posting a 5.56 ERA across 79.1 innings. Unfortunately, that performance was supported by a 4.67 xERA and a poor 10% barrel rate, while a shoulder strain sidelined him for nearly two months. There were still positives to take away from his rookie season. His 3.79 FIP ranked above the MLB average for starting pitchers, and much of his poor run prevention stemmed from an unsustainably low LOB%. His fastball also ticked up in velocity without sacrificing shape, and his arsenal continued to feature six competitive pitches. The Twins pitching lab may be sitting on a potential gold mine with Matthews, and I believe he is only a few tweaks away from becoming a long-term fixture in the Minnesota rotation.
Confidence: High — Matthews is expected to start the season in the Twins rotation.
Batter Pick: Austin Martin, CF — Martin feels like the safest bet from the Twins young hitters to take a big step next season thanks to his strong plate discipline.
Longshot Pick: Gabriel Gonzalez, RF — Well-rounded corner outfielder with excellent results in 2025 (on 40-man)
New York Mets
Christian Scott — RHP
Christian Scott
P, Age: 26, Throws: R, 6′ 4″/215 lbs
DOB: 1999-06-15, Coconut Creek, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
———————
2026 Proj
38.0
4.06
1.21
22.5%
6.5%
4.00
0.1
Christian Scott surged up prospect lists following an impressive start to his 2024 season and eventual MLB debut. Unfortunately, his rookie campaign was cut short by an elbow injury that required surgery, ultimately sidelining him for all of 2025. On a positive note, Scott is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. Given the Mets starting pitching depth and Scotts inability to consistently neutralize LHH, the bullpen appears to be the most likely home for him in 2026. Despite the potential downgrade in role, Scott possesses several intriguing traits that give him a strong foundation to excel as a reliever. His shallow fastball stands out as the core piece of his arsenal, and he supplements it with a pair of sliders to effectively neutralize lefties. Scott was one of my favorite prospects just a few years ago, and I could not be more excited for his return – even if it comes in a limited capacity.
Confidence: Low — Scott is returning from Tommy John Surgery, and the Mets have a ton of arms.
Batter Pick: Jared Young, LF — Young was outstanding in AAA last season and the Mets OF is very shallow. He seemed like the only viable option.
Longshot Pick: Jack Wenninger, RHP — Innings eater with a strong changeup and reported higher velocity (not on 40-man)
New York Yankees
Ryan Weathers — LHP
Ryan Weathers
P, Age: 26, Throws: L, 6′ 1″/230 lbs
DOB: 1999-12-17, Loretto, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
38.1
3.99
1.28
22.3%
7.2%
4.60
0.2
2026 Proj
122.0
4.16
1.29
22.0%
8.5%
4.16
1.2
Ryan Weathers was a popular breakout pick entering 2025 following an uptick in velocity and a revamped changeup that gave the left-hander two plus pitches alongside a trio of secondaries. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just 38.1 innings, continuing a trend that has followed Weathers throughout his career. After being traded to New York earlier this winter, Weathers will have another chance to put his arsenal together and make an impact in 2026. He is expected to open the season in the rotation before eventually shifting to the bullpen once Cole and Rodon return. Even in a relief role, I am confident Weathers can carve out a meaningful role with the Yankees.
Confidence: Medium — Weathers’ injury history and likely bullpen role limits his potential value.
Batter Pick: Jasson Domínguez, LF — Prospect fatigue has hit Domínguez hard. He is just 23 years old and will opearte as the Yankees 4th OF.
Longshot Pick: Elmer Rodríguez, RHP — Innings eater with a kitchen-sink mix and solid sinker (on 40-man)
Philadelphia Phillies
Zach McCambley — RHP
Zach McCambley
P, Age: 26, Throws: R, 6′ 2″/225 lbs
DOB: 1999-05-04, Netcong, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
———————
2026 Proj
———————
Zach McCambley was my top prospect available in the Rule 5 draft, and I was surprised he lasted until the penultimate selection. The Phillies should be thrilled with the pick, as McCambley has the foundation to be an immediate impact arm in their bullpen. His primary weapon is a high-80s cutter that he confidently throws to both lefties and righties. The pitch lives in the zone, generating plenty of called strikes, while its subtle cutting action helps it evade barrels. His slider is also a quality offering, pairing strong velocity with massive sweep. McCambley ability to locate it low and away to RHH made it a highly effective put-away pitch. I expect McCambley to secure a MLB roster spot out of spring and stick in the majors throughout the 2026 season.
Confidence: Low — Rule 5 Draft picks are always risky.
Batter Pick: Justin Crawford, CF — The Phillies have no other viable options as they are basically running back the same team from 2025.
Longshot Pick: Yoniel Curet, RHP — Loud stuff without a lick of command and recently DFA’d by TB (on 40-man)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft — RHP
Braxton Ashcraft
P, Age: 26, Throws: R, 6′ 5″/220 lbs
DOB: 1999-10-05, Waco, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
69.2
2.71
1.25
24.3%
8.2%
2.78
1.6
2026 Proj
149.0
3.84
1.28
20.7%
7.1%
3.82
2.0
Braxton Ashcraft was one of the more unheralded rookie arms from last season after he posted a 2.71 ERA and 2.78 FIP across 69.2 innings. Heading into 2026, Ashcraft is lined up to start the year in the Pirates rotation following a flurry of trades. If there is one thing to know about Ashcraft, it is that his slider is exceptional. Sitting at 92 MPH and moving more like a low-riding cutter, Ashcraft uses the pitch as his primary offering, throwing it over 30% of the time. He has excellent feel for the slider and supplements it with a pair of mid-90s fastballs and a steep two-plane curveball. I expect Ashcraft to be a key member of the Pirates pitching staff next season and cement himself as a mid-rotation arm.
Confidence: High — Ashcraft is expected to start the season in the Pirates rotation.
Batter Pick: Endy Rodríguez, 1B — Rodríguez has had his young career derailed by injuries, but I still have hope that his top prospect talent can shine through. He will likely be limited in 2026 following elbow surgery.
Longshot Pick: Esmerlyn Valdez, OF — Loudest bat in the AFL (on 40-man)
San Diego Padres
Bradgley Rodriguez — RHP
Bradgley Rodriguez
P, Age: 22, Throws: R, 6′ 1″/160 lbs
DOB: 2003-11-16, Petare, Venezuela
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
7.2
1.17
0.91
29.0%
9.7%
3.14
0.1
2026 Proj
50.0
4.14
1.37
21.0%
10.5%
4.39
0.0
Bradgley Rodriguez is shaping up to be yet another dynamic arm from a long line of elite Padres relievers. He has the velocity to stick in a high-leverage role and features a trio of fastballs to tackle all batters. His bread and butter is a high-80s changeup with immense arm-side run and drastic depth to stun LHH. It appears San Diego is giving Rodriguez the opportunity to open the season in MLB entering his age-22 campaign, and I am excited to see how his stuff performs.
Confidence: Medium — Rodriguez likely opens the season in MLB, but is also one of the more expendable arms in the Padres bullpen.
Batter Pick: Luis Campusano, C — Campusano loves hitting in AAA but has yet to consistently translate his production to MLB. He should have a much longer leash as the backup catcher entering 2026.
Longshot Pick: Miguel Mendez, RHP — Intriguing starter with a plus fastball (on 40-man)
San Francisco Giants
Casey Schmitt — 3B
Casey Schmitt
3B, Age: 26, B/T: R/R, 6′ 0″/220 lbs
DOB: 1999-03-01, San Diego, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
95
348
12
0
23.9%
7.8%
98
0.7
2026 Proj
49
210
7
1
22.6%
6.8%
99
0.6
Casey Schmitt was well on his way to a breakout season until a hit-by-pitch sent him to the IL in late June. His batted-ball quality noticeably dipped following the injury, and he recently underwent wrist surgery to remove a carpal boss on the back of his left wrist. With his hand issues hopefully behind him, Schmitt is expected to open the 2026 season in a utility role, where his well-rounded approach and pulled fly-ball tendencies should yield solid production.
Confidence: Low — Hand issues may have lingering effects and the addition of Luis Arraez puts a damper on his playing time outlook.
Pitcher Pick: Joel Peguero, RHP — Peguero averages 100 MPH on his fastball and throws a nasty slider. What else do you need from a reliever?
Longshot Pick: Hayden Birdsong, RHP — Electric stuff that could make him a bullpen arm in a pinch (on 40-man)
Seattle Mariners
Dominic Canzone — RF
Dominic Canzone
RF, Age: 28, B/T: L/R, 6′ 0″/190 lbs
DOB: 1997-08-16, Cleveland, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
82
268
11
3
22.0%
7.5%
140
1.5
2026 Proj
99
427
17
4
22.9%
7.3%
107
0.9
Dominic Canzone enjoyed a mini breakout in 2025 as he settled comfortably into a platoon role with Seattle and posted an incredible 141 wRC+ across 82 games. This offensive surge was supported by improvements in contact rate and a massive spike in batted-ball quality. Canzone is expected to operate in a similar role in 2026 as the Mariners everyday DH against RHH. While projections view him as closer to a league-average bat, I am confident Canzone can sustain his quality-of-contact gains and produce another productive season in a platoon-heavy role.
Confidence: Medium — A heavy platoon role and susceptible plate discipline make Canzone volatile.
Pitcher Pick: Jose A. Ferrer, LHP — The Mariners well-established pitching depth do not have many options to choose from. According to fWAR, Ferrer was one of the most valuable relievers in MLB in 2025, but his 4.48 ERA did not reflect that. I already consider him a Top 40 RP, making him ineligible for my primary breakout pick, but I can foresee another level to his production next season.
Longshot Pick: Brennen Davis, CF — Post-hype prospect without much of a path to playing time (not on 40-man)
St. Louis Cardinals
Richard Fitts — RHP
Richard Fitts
P, Age: 26, Throws: R, 6′ 3″/230 lbs
DOB: 1999-12-17, Helena, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
45.0
5.00
1.31
20.5%
8.2%
5.80
-0.3
2026 Proj
104.0
4.38
1.32
17.7%
7.0%
4.47
0.5
Richard Fitts was my Red Sox breakout pick entering the 2025 season, but a combination of inconsistency and injury prevented that from coming to fruition. Now with the Cardinals following the trade that sent Sonny Gray to Boston, Fitts is positioned to take on a meaningful role in one of the shallowest rotations in MLB. I identified Fitts as a breakout candidate last year due to his innate command and impressive Spring Training, where he showed a velocity spike and introduced two new pitches. Those same factors are why I have him tabbed as my Cardinals breakout pick for 2026. I expect his injury to be fully behind him and for Fitts to settle in as a backend starter in St. Louis.
Confidence: Medium — A rotation role is not locked for Fitts, which may have him spending quite a bit of time in AAA.
Batter Pick: Jordan Walker, RF — The Cardinals are not going to quit on Walker anytime soon and he has the power upside to be one of their more productive hitters.
Longshot Pick: Leonardo Bernal, C — Defense-first catcher with a refined hit tool (on 40-man)
Tampa Bay Rays
Jacob Melton — LF
Jacob Melton
LF, Age: 25, B/T: L/L, 6′ 3″/208 lbs
DOB: 2000-09-07, Medford, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
32
78
0
7
37.2%
7.7%
21
-0.3
2026 Proj
36
154
4
8
26.1%
7.5%
83
0.3
Jacob Melton was on a tear in AAA, posting some of the most outrageous underlying metrics in the minors. He paired elite power indicators with above-average contact rates and a sound overall approach. Those results did not immediately carry over following his MLB debut, but they pushed him back onto the prospect radar, particularly within a shallow Houston pipeline. This winter, Melton was traded to the Rays and now finds himself battling for a roster spot entering 2026. Given the lack of outfield depth in Tampa Bay, I am cautiously optimistic Melton can carve out a meaningful role early in the season and showcase the tools that prompted the Rays to acquire him.
Confidence: Low — Melton’s outcomes range from opening day starter to staying in AAA until September.
Pitcher Pick: Joe Boyle, RHP — Joe Boyle has nasty stuff and is expected to start the season in the Rays rotation.
Longshot Pick: Ian Seymour, LHP — Crafty southpaw who should be next in line for the rotation (on 40-man)
Texas Rangers
Evan Carter — CF
Evan Carter
CF, Age: 23, B/T: L/R, 6′ 3″/190 lbs
DOB: 2002-08-29, Elizabethton, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
63
220
5
14
18.6%
8.6%
107
1.4
2026 Proj
107
462
11
19
22.3%
10.4%
104
1.9
It has been nearly two years since Evan Carter burst onto top prospect lists following an impressive MiLB résumé and a standout showing during the 2023 postseason. While Carter cumulative results have been encouraging, highlighted by a 111 wRC+, injuries have limited him to just 457 plate appearances across three seasons, most recently due to a fractured right hand suffered in August 2025. All indications suggest Carter will be ready for Spring Training, and if he can stay healthy throughout the year, he is poised to be an impact player for the Rangers. He is projected to play center field, where his strong glove and plus speed significantly raise his floor. Combined with his disciplined eye and pull-air approach, Carter has a strong foundation to return above-average offensive production. While he is not my typical breakout pick given his pedigree, he feels like the right player to highlight entering 2026.
Confidence: High — Some concerns regarding injuries and platoon usage, but Carter is still a safe pick.
Pitcher Pick: Carter Baumler, RHP — Rule 5 Draft pick with an electric fastball that I think can stick around the Majors this season.
Longshot Pick: Winston Santos, RHP — Command artist with a polished trio of pitches (on 40-man)
Toronto Blue Jays
Cody Ponce — RHP
Cody Ponce
P, Age: 31, Throws: R, 6′ 6″/255 lbs
DOB: 1994-04-25, Pomona, USA
2026 MLB Pitching Projections
SeasonIPERAWHIPK%BB%FIPWAR
2025
———————
2026 Proj
151.0
4.07
1.25
23.2%
7.1%
3.97
2.0
Cody Ponce just posted the best pitching season ever in the KBO. Since his departure from MLB following the 2021 season, he has redefined himself as a pitcher, improving both the velocity and shape of his fastball while introducing an elite changeup into his repertoire. He logged over 180 innings in Korea last season and earned a multi-year deal with the Blue Jays to bolster their rotation. I am confident the changes Ponce made overseas have transformed him into a MLB-caliber pitcher and that he can be one of the best value contracts signed this winter.
Confidence: High — Many pitchers come back from overseas and struggle, but Ponce feels different.
Batter Pick: Kazuma Okamoto, 3B — Okamoto is one of the greatest hitters ever in NPB and has all the tools to excel with Toronto. Picking him as my main pick felt like cheating.
Longshot Pick: RJ Schreck, LF — Older lefty bat with a refined approach and a knack for pulling fly balls (not on 40-man)
Washington Nationals
Daylen Lile — RF
Daylen Lile
RF, Age: 23, B/T: L/R, 5′ 11″/195 lbs
DOB: 2002-11-30, Louisville, USA
2026 MLB Batting Projections
SeasonGPAHRSBK%BB%wRC+WAR
2025
91
351
9
8
16.0%
6.0%
132
1.4
2026 Proj
128
553
11
14
17.9%
6.6%
106
1.4
Daylen Lile was scorching hot in the second half last season, posting an excellent 162 wRC+ across his final 58 games. Lile was never considered a standout prospect, but his bat-to-ball skills and ability to consistently lift the ball give him a strong foundation to become an above-average MLB hitter. He is a strong runner who should provide surplus value on the basepaths while racking up plenty of hits for Washington. Lile is expected to play every day for the Nationals as a heart-of-the-order bat.
Confidence: High — If he is in the lineup, Lile will hit.
Pitcher Pick: Cade Cavalli, RHP — Cavalli is a former top prospect who missed nearly 2 years due to injury. He looked solid in 2025 and is pencilled into the Nationals rotation.
Longshot Pick: Abimelec Ortiz, 1B — Newly acquired power bat with strong MiLB results (on 40-man)
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