“Ukraine has undergone a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on,” Alyona Getmanchuk, head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO, told POLITICO. “Previously, the vision was primarily centered on protection commitments provided by partners. Today, however, there is a clear understanding that the core of any security guarantees must be Ukraine’s army and its defense industries.”
But for that to happen, Ukraine needs to create a sustainable defense sector, reform its procurement systems, revamp its recruitment, continue improving its drone technology, build up long-strike missiles, equip its forces with modern tanks, artillery and jets (Kyiv has sketched out a deal to acquire as many as 150 Swedish-produced Saab JAS-39E Gripen fighters), and get billions in aid to build a military Russia would fear attacking again.
Ukraine’s future security “is first and foremost about production resilience,” said Ihor Fedirko, CEO of the Ukrainian Council of the Defense Industry. “Not individual weapons systems and not one-off technological breakthroughs, but the ability of the defense industry to operate over time, under pressure, with predictable output.
Security guarantees are needed because U.S. President Donald Trump has ruled out Ukraine’s preferred option of being invited to join NATO, which protects its members with its Article 5 common defense provision.
“In addition to strong armed forces, Ukraine needs robust security guarantees,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in Kyiv on Tuesday.
But without NATO, Ukraine has to rely on bespoke agreements that may not carry as much weight as the alliance commitment. Kyiv is wary of such deals, having been burned by promises made by the U.S. and the U.K. when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 — pledges that turned out to be hollow.
