Premier League predictions and best bets: Nottingham Forest to drag Leeds back into relegation trouble
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight ahead of a busy Premier League weekend.
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Having been working and punting on the Premier League for 15+ years now, there are some go-to betting strategies that have shown to be very sustainable when implemented right. And one of them is to respect Sean Dyche teams when they’re on a good run of form.
Once the message from Dyche lands and the squad fully commits to the physical, disciplined, no-nonsense approach, performances stop fluctuating and become consistent. This is a key aspect of finding trustworthy teams to bet on.
Across their last six games in the Premier League and Europa League, Nottingham Forest are looking like a classic Dyche team having conceded just two goals.
This is going to be a horrible game with lots of duels, lots of set-pieces – and this is where his teams thrive.
Leeds are excellent at playing this style too but there is a bit of nervousness starting to creep into their season again. Similar styles are on the table here but Forest are the more experienced and have the better quality of player and manager to execute a winning game plan. Forest on the draw no bet at 11/8 with Sky Bet stands out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
A record number of goals are being scored from dead-ball situations this season, corners are such dangerous avenues for goals and centre-backs with aerial dominance have never been more valuable from a betting perspective. Yet one of the best set-piece attackers in world football has barely been on the pitch for most of it.
Harry Maguire is back in the Manchester United fold, though, and looking in fine fettle in both boxes. Since returning, he has registered four shots in just 281 minutes, generating an expected goals figure of 0.62, which is of course a chunky output for a centre-half. That includes hitting the crossbar against Manchester City.
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There is value to be had on Maguire and it is in his shots prices – most notably his headed shots price of 10/11 with Sky Bet. Across the last six Premier League seasons, only Virgil van Dijk is recording a headed shot at a higher rate than Maguire – one every 177 minutes.
Whenever this bet is 10/11 or bigger it’s an automatic back for me if Manchester United are the favourites to win the game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Arsenal vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
Like most Arsenal home games against anyone outside the elite, this is a challenging betting heat where the Gunners are 1/5 with Sky Bet to land the odds. Other traditional markets like the over/under 2.5 line are priced up correctly too so we have to get creative here for an angle.
Trai Hume’s fouls committed prices are worth a look at Evens for 2+ with Sky Bet.
Hume has made 16 fouls in his last eight starts, averaging out perfectly at that two fouls line with a switch of position helping to keep those fouls numbers bulky. He’s playing more as an inverted wide midfielder rather than a full-back and being in the heat of the battle against the Gunners will see him threaten that fouls line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth to make the most fouls in each half at 11/10 with Sky Bet is a wager that’s cashed in each of the last five head-to-head meetings.
That’s no fluke.
This fixture is consistently foul heavy because of the tactical clash between the managers as Villa under Unai Emery are happy to play fast and vertically, forcing Bournemouth into reactive defending, broken play and ultimately, fouls, to stop transitions. The numbers back it up too as the head-to-head record shows Bournemouth average 17 fouls per game, compared to just 10 for Aston Villa.
At odds-against, backing Bournemouth to win the foul count in both halves looks a smart way to play a match-up that keeps telling us the same story.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Burnley vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Crysencio Summerville is thriving under Nuno Espirito Santo, not only in terms of his overall attacking output but also in the way he is terrifying defenders.
The only way to stop him is to foul him which is leading to cards. Under Nuno, Summerville has drawn 12 cards off the opposition – that’s the most of any player in the Premier League this season. Kyle Walker will be the man responsible for stopping him – a player who has been carded eight times already this season. The 100/30 with Sky Bet for a Walker card is very generous.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Kyle Walker to be carded (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
James Garner to have 2+ shots at 11/8 with Sky Bet makes appeal.
Garner’s development this season has been a real success story for David Moyes, who has pushed him higher from midfield which has allowed him to get himself into shooting positions rather than just recycling possession. The raw numbers tell the story as no Everton player has attempted more shots this season than Garner (39), which underlines just how licence-heavy his role has become. This match-up suits that trend too. He fired off four shots in the reverse fixture against Fulham.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Wolves vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm
Yerson Mosquera to score for Wolves at 16/1 with Sky Bet is firmly on the radar against a Chelsea side that continue to look alarmingly vulnerable from dead-ball situations.
Only Crystal Palace have conceded more expected goals from set-pieces than Chelsea this season (12.67 xG), while 10 actual goals shipped from those scenarios underlines that this is a structural problem, not bad luck.
And one that hasn’t been solved since the change of manager.
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Chelsea head coach Liam Rosenior had a few standout moments before, during, and after his side’s loss to Arsenal in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final
That will be music to the ears of a Wolves side who are unapologetically set-piece orientated under Rob Edwards, with delivery and movement clearly drilled on the training ground. Mosquera is becoming increasingly prominent in those situations too. He’s gone close in recent weeks, racking up 11 shots across his last six games and was desperately unlucky to hit the post against Bournemouth last weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Yerson Mosquera to score (16/1 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Brentford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Rico Henry to be carded at 9/2 with Sky Bet looks a lovely angle to attack because of what’s brewing down that flank in terms of fouls in this game. Henry is likely to spend large periods dealing with Anthony Elanga and that’s a match-up that tends to end with the defender running the risk of a card.
Since the start of last season, Elanga has drawn 20 yellow cards from opponents, using his pace and direct running to force last-ditch challenges when he shifts the ball past his man. The timing looks right too. Elanga showed signs of hitting form again in his last outing against Manchester City, scoring a beauty of a goal and carrying a real threat in transition when repeatedly engaging his full-back one on one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Crystal Palace have not won in their last 12 games in all competitions but everyone knows about their current plight. But it’s pretty gloomy at Brighton too, who have finally started to prove me right in how much of an overrated team they are. Just one win in 11 games means Fabian Hurzeler is facing huge pressure now.
And, this is exactly the type of opposition they struggle against: low block, long quick vertical football and a head-to-head record of winning just two of the last 13 games with their rivals. Looking at the match odds, where Brighton are around Evens, market forces are also now becoming cold on this Brighton team which is quite a big pointer that Hurzeler is going to struggle to turn this around.
Trusting Palace though isn’t viable either, meaning the draw makes lots of sense to back at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool at 11/8 with Sky Bet? Sign me up.
Since drawing at Leeds, their defensive numbers are back to where they were last season, offering up very little to the opposition in terms of big chances. Across their last 13 games, they’ve conceded just 0.75 goals per game to a backdrop of 0.8 expected goals against per game. Arne Slot has fixed the leak.
Yet, Man City’s defensive structure and out-of-possession play has quietly become a cause for concern. They are showing signs of the same problems of last season where teams were finding it so easy to play through the City midfield and defence to create big chances.
Since they drew with Chelsea, in six games where they’ve gone off bigger than 1/3 to win, they’ve been repeatedly badly exposed defensively, shipping an expected goals against tally of 1.6 per 90 and facing 4.8 shots on target per 90.
Liverpool may run riot if City don’t tighten up, meaning the home team handicap market at -1 at 7/2 with Sky Bet is a lovely way to back Slot’s men to win by two or more goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Liverpool -1 handicap (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- 1pt double on: Kyle Walker to be carded & Liverpool -1 handicap vs Man City (18/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Yerson Mosquera to score for Wolves (16/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75
Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75
Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75
Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75
Matchday 14
-1
-2
-19.75
Matchday 15
0
-1
-20.75
Matchday 16
0
-1
-21.75
Matchday 17
0
-1
-22.75
Matchday 18
0
-1
-23.75
Matchday 19
0
-1
-24.75
Matchday 20
-1
0
-25.75
Matchday 21
-4
0
-29.75
Matchday 22
0
-1
-30.75
Matchday 23
0
-1
-31.75
