Michigan State basketball vs. Illinois tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

• What: Michigan State vs. Illinois

• When: 8 p.m. Saturday

• Where: Breslin Center

• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 83 (MSU broadcast), 195 (Illinois broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 19-4 overall and 9-3 in the Big Ten, and is ranked No. 10 by both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 13 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 10 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Illinois is 20-3 overall, 11-1 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 5 by the AP and No. 6 in the Coaches Poll. The Illini are No. 4 in the NET rankings and No. 5 via Kenpom.

• Betting line: MSU -1.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 756-306 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Illinois — Brad Underood is 294-131 in his 13th season as an NCAA head coach, including 185-104 in his ninth season with the Illini.

• Series: MSU leads 67-64 all-time and won both games last season. This is the only scheduled meeting this season.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.1

PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.9

SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.6

SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.2

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 14.7

Illinois

C (13) Tomislav Ivisic (7-1) 9.9

PF (0) David Mirkovic (6-9) 12.3

SF (2) Andrej Stojakovic (6-7) 13.5

SG (15) Jake Davis (6-6) 5.3

PG (23) Keaton Wagler (6-6) 17.9

• MSU update: The Spartans have lost two straight and have struggled out of the gate in their last three games entering Saturday night’s date with the Illini. MSU will be without reserve guard Divine Ugochukwu for the rest of the season, after Ugochukwu broke a bone in his foot in the first half of Wednesday’s game at Minnesota. What that means for the Spartans’ rotation remains to be seen. Denham Wojcik has been the backup point guard in short stints at times, but not against every matchup. This issue comes just as the microscope on starting point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. intensifies. Fears’ on-court antics at Minnesota, on the heels of criticism from Michigan coach Dusty May about his behavior against the Wolverines, led Tom Izzo to have a come-to-Jesus conversation with his star point guard. Izzo said Friday he hadn’t decided yet whether he would sit Fears at all against Illinois. MSU might need 34-plus minutes of Fears per game the rest of the way, including against the Illini.

RELATED: Couch: Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. is in danger of being defined by his antics

• Illinois update: The Illini have won 11 straight games since a Dec. 13 home loss to Nebraska. They’ve since avenged that defeat, beating the Huskers on the road last weekend, after also winning at Purdue. Most recently, Illinois throttled Northwestern, 84-44, on Wednesday. Freshman Keaton Wagler has been a somewhat unexpected revelation for the Illini this season. The 6-foot-6 guard had 28 points at Nebraska and 46 at Purdue, when he hit 9 of 11 3-point attempts.

• Matchup analysis: This is a contest between one of the nation’s best defenses, MSU, against college basketball’s best offense, Illinois (which leads the country in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom). Both are great rebounding teams. The Illini have tremendous size and skill across the board. They’re not overly athletic inside, but they have guys who can score around the rim and move the ball. Wagler is a dangerous player, whose outside shot is scary, but is also a good passer and crafty on the drive. My guess is that Jordan Scott and Jeremy Fears both take turns on him, depending on who else is in the Illini backcourt. Kylan Boswell, Illinois’ second-leading scorer, remains out with a hand injury. The Illini have six healthy players who made at least 25 3-pointers this season and are shooting at least 34% from long range. Two of them are 7-feet or taller. Defensively, Illinois is pretty efficient, too — top 20 overall, top 20 in defensive rebounding, and holding opponents to about 31% from beyond the arc. The Illini have the profile of a national title contender.

• Prediction: We’ve seen MSU come through midseason slumps before, sometimes getting out of them by riding a home crowd to an inspired performance. Michigan and Illinois are better than any team the Spartans had to deal with in last year’s Big Ten. This is a massive game for the Spartans. Not just to get back on course, but to prove they can beat the top teams in the country. MSU is 0-2 against the definite elites so far, Michigan and Duke. North Carolina, Kentucky and Arkansas are a couple tiers below. I can picture the Spartans winning this sort of game at Breslin Center. It’s just hard to see them beating this Illinois team right now. If Fears sits for any considerable time (and I don’t think he will), it’s lights out.

• Make it: Illinois 75, MSU 71

— Graham Couch

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Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.