Experts predict Syracuse loses to Duke by 20+ on Presidents’ Day—but Kalshi traders aren’t buying it

It is the ultimate David vs. Goliath setup for Presidents’ Day.

Tonight at 7:00 p.m., the Syracuse Orange (15-11) walk into Cameron Indoor Stadium to face the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (23-2). The Blue Devils are riding a 29-game home winning streak and coming off a dominant win over ranked Clemson.

For New York fans, the narrative is usually simple: watch the game, hope for the best, but keep your wallet closed because state law prohibits betting on in-state college teams.

But as we have covered previously, Kalshi—a federally regulated prediction market—allows New Yorkers to legally trade on Syracuse games. (If you are new to Kalshi, you can read our full breakdown of how it works and why it’s legal here).

For tonight’s clash, the data on Kalshi is highlighting a fascinating disagreement between the “smart money” analytics and the traders in the market.

The Duke vs. Syracuse “Blowout” conflict: Computers vs. humans

If you look at traditional sports betting models, tonight looks grim for the Orange.

The predictive analytics engine at Dimers has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and you can review the results on the interactive widget below.

The experts’ model gives Duke a 96% chance of winning and predicts a final score of 84-63—a 21-point drubbing. Consequently, they give Duke a 52% chance to cover the massive 19.5-point spread.

However, the traders on Kalshi aren’t convinced.

As of Monday afternoon, the Kalshi market for “Duke to win by 20.5 points” is trading with “No” as the favorite at 56¢.

• What this means: While the computers are calling for a 20+ point blowout, the majority of money on Kalshi (56%) is betting that Syracuse will keep it closer than that.
• The Value Play: If you believe the Orange can cover that massive number, you can buy “No” contracts. If Syracuse loses by 19, 10, or even wins outright, that contract pays out $1.00, nearly doubling your money.

The longshot

These Kalshi odds for Duke vs. Syracuse were updated early Monday morning, February 16th, 2026.Kalshi

For the eternal optimists, the moneyline market paints a stark picture of the challenge ahead.

• Duke to Win: Trading at 95¢ (95% probability).
• Syracuse to Win: Trading at 5¢ (5% probability).

While 5% sounds slim, it offers a “lottery ticket” return. A $10 trade on Syracuse would return **$200** if they pull off the miracle upset—a payout of 20-to-1.

The “Hidden Edge” on the total

Perhaps the most actionable number for tonight isn’t about who wins, but how many points are scored.

Dimers has flagged Over 142.5 Points as their “Best Bet” for the game, assigning it a 57% probability of hitting.

Currently, Kalshi’s market for Over 143.5 Points is trading at just 51¢.

• The Discrepancy: You are getting a probability of roughly 57% (per the experts) for a price of 51¢.
• The Math: In financial terms, this is “buying the dip.” The prediction market hasn’t yet caught up to the analytics models, offering savvy traders a statistical edge on the Over.

Novelty markets: Will “Cameron Indoor” be mentioned?

One of the unique features of prediction markets is the ability to trade on things that have nothing to do with the score. Kalshi has opened “Broadcast Props” for the Presidents’ Day broadcast on ESPN.

• “Cameron Indoor” Mention (93¢): The market views it as nearly guaranteed that the announcers will mention the famous venue’s name.
• “Recruit” Mention (72¢): With Duke’s loaded roster, this seems likely.
• “Ankle” Mention (62¢): A oddly specific market that likely tracks player injury reports or broadcast storylines.

How to trade the Duke-Syracuse matchup on Kalshi

Whether you want to back the Orange to cover the spread or take the expert advice on the Over, Kalshi remains the only legal avenue for New Yorkers to get skin in the game tonight.

If you’re new to Kalshi, we’re running a special President’s Day promotion for new users:

• The Promo Code: SYRACUSE
• The Offer: Trade $10, Get $10.
• How: Sign up, deposit, and place at least $10 in trades on the Syracuse-Duke game (or any other market).

Sign up here to claim your $10 bonus and trade tonight’s game.

Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH.

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