Jackson State Tigers vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats prediction, pick for NCAAM on Monday 2/16/26

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Jackson State Tigers and the Bethune-Cookman Wildcats.

SWAC games don’t care what you’ve been all season, they care what you can execute in the last six minutes. Bethune-Cookman is sitting on top of the league, and every road night is a tax you have to pay in full. Jackson State is good enough to make the building matter, especially when the lead guard can bend pace by himself. The first meeting was a demolition, an 85-48 Bethune win that still hangs in the air like a dare. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Jackson State Tigers and the Bethune-Cookman Wildcats.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Bethune’s case starts with how it wins possessions without needing a heater. It’s scoring 74.6 points per game on 45.5% shooting, and it keeps its own mistakes under control at 12.5 turnovers per game. It also plays with legit defensive teeth, posting 7.4 steals and 4.6 blocks per night, the kind of disruption that creates runouts without asking your half-court offense to be perfect. The tempo band matters too, because Bethune is around 67.6 possessions per game while Jackson wants it closer to 72.3, so the total lives on whether the home side can actually speed the game up. Bethune’s best argument against a track meet is its conference defense: opponents have shot 39.0% from the field and 25.3% from three in league play, and Bethune has held SWAC opponents to 67.42 points per game. Jackson’s problem is that it bleeds structure, sitting at 39.3% from the field for the season with a 51.4% true shooting rate, and the defensive rating sitting at 121.3 tells you why games can get away from it.

Bethune can cover a road number without playing pretty. Jakobi Heady (G) is the stabilizer, at 17.4 points per game with 40.8% from three and 79.1% at the line, which is exactly what you want when the gym tightens. Arterio Morris (G) gives them two-way functionality at 11.2 points with 3.0 assists and 1.6 steals, so the pressure does not die when the first option is bottled. Daniel Rouzan (F) is the quiet efficiency piece at 11.0 points on 50.7% shooting, a reliable release valve when the perimeter gets run off the line. Doctor Bradley (F) adds 11.9 points and 7.5 rebounds, and the rebounding matters when Jackson tries to sprint. On the other side, Daeshun Ruffin (G) is the entire cover path for Jackson, putting up 23.4 points with 5.7 assists and 85.7% at the stripe, and that kind of foul-line control can keep a dog alive even on a night where nothing else works. If Jayme Mitchell Jr. and Dorian McMillian can turn Ruffin’s gravity into clean catch-and-shoot threes, the game can look normal fast.

Bethune-Cookman vs. Jackson State pick, best bet

Road favorites in this league can get dragged into weird endings, especially when the whistle gets involved. Jackson is physical and lives in contact, and it commits 19.5 fouls per game, which can turn the game into stoppages and momentum swings. Bethune’s recent results also show the floor outcome exists, losing 57-55 at Alcorn State after stacking wins like 80-62 against Alabama A&M and 82-76 against Prairie View. Jackson has been a scoreboard wild card too, beating Florida A&M 80-60 and Mississippi Valley State 97-81, then getting clipped 84-63 at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which is the definition of a team that can swing between hot and helpless. The betting-trend texture matches that volatility, with both teams sitting around .500 on totals for the season, and neither being a set-and-forget ATS profile. The travel is a factor for Bethune, but Jackson is also coming off a game two nights ago, so this is more about legs in the closing minutes than a rest advantage.

I’m playing Bethune-Cookman -4.5 (-112), and I’m comfortable up to -5.5. The clean path is forcing Jackson into rushed decisions, then turning those live-ball mistakes into easy points before the defense can set. Bethune should lean into pressure at the point of attack, keep a second defender shaded toward Ruffin’s driving lanes, and make Jackson’s other scorers prove they can finish possessions. Offensively, it should live in paint touches, then spray to Heady when help arrives, because Jackson’s defensive rating has been too leaky to trust for forty minutes. The fragility is simple: if Ruffin lives at the line and Bradley’s 47.7% free-throw shooting becomes a late-game issue, a five-point cover can get sweaty fast.

I’ve got it Bethune-Cookman 78, Jackson State 71.

Best bet: Bethune-Cookman -4.5 (-110) at Jackson State

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