J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings’ QB situation and what to know about the coming weeks – The Athletic
Welcome to the planning phase of the NFL calendar.
The Minnesota Vikings aren’t any different from other teams in that they have spent the last few weeks sketching out a vision for the next month, when coaches and executives will attend the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Then, free agency begins. All of this shapes 2026, which needs to be remembered as a bounce-back year in Minnesota.
As last year proved, quarterback decisions tend to drive that vision. The Vikings’ brass knows it cannot afford a repeat of last spring’s events. The team’s decision makers also know they’re trying to thread a needle with all the dynamics at play.
What do you need to know about the team’s deliberations? Here are answers to some key questions:
Where do the Vikings stand with J.J. McCarthy?
The 23-year-old quarterback’s lack of availability is the team’s foremost concern.
McCarthy has played in 29 percent of the Vikings’ regular-season games since he was drafted in the spring of 2024. He tore a meniscus. He sprained an ankle. A concussion, along with hand and finger injuries, affected him throughout 2025, too.
It’s worth revisiting McCarthy’s pre-draft evaluation in the context of this subject. Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s draft expert, wrote this at the outset of McCarthy’s weaknesses: “Lean-framed athlete (played the 2023 season at 200 pounds) and needs to sustain additional body mass.” McCarthy added weight for the combine. The number fluctuated drastically throughout his rookie season.
Expecting McCarthy to sustain the pounding of an entire season would be hopeful, at best. The Vikings know this. It’s a primary driver of the team’s pursuit of quarterback insurance.
But there is also the question of performance.
McCarthy produced an encouraging four-game stretch to close the season, but the overall body of work ranked at the bottom among all qualified quarterbacks in 2025.
Here’s how McCarthy compares to recent rookie quarterbacks in some advanced statistics (courtesy of Pro Football Reference):
Player
On-target %
Bad throw %
66.5%
21.3%
78.2%
14.5%
74.8%
19.9%
75.3%
14.8%
74.1%
21.0%
76.5%
18.0%
72.6%
19.0%
73.3%
21.5%
60.1%
25.6%
Applying touch to passes — a pre-draft question the Vikings themselves had — remained a struggle. In 2025, Minnesota also removed most of its over-the-middle passing concepts throughout the season to keep his line of sight as simple as possible.
These limiting factors may not be deal breakers over the long haul. That said, NFL executives and coaches rarely have the benefit of viewing everything in the context of the long haul.
Results are required. For all of these reasons, the Vikings are gauging all of the quarterback possibilities with an open mind.
How is the Vikings’ quarterback opening viewed around the NFL?
One 9-8 season did not diminish beliefs held by players and agents about the Vikings’ advantageous environment.
The New York Jets need a quarterback. So do the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. Other teams may seek help at the position. The Atlanta Falcons could look for a placeholder as Michael Penix Jr. recovers from his torn ACL. If the Arizona Cardinals part ways with Kyler Murray, they’re likely to be in the market, too.
Minnesota offers more intrigue than most of these spots in the eyes of folks around the NFL.
Head coach and play caller Kevin O’Connell is one of the main reasons.
He has a proven track record of situating veteran quarterbacks in a comfortable environment. Throwing to Justin Jefferson doesn’t hurt, either. Most available quarterbacks will come from teams that lacked top-tier skill talent. Brian Flores’ defense doesn’t hurt. Neither do the lower expectations stemming from 2025.
Questions about the Vikings’ opportunity tend to focus on three aspects of the team: the commitment to McCarthy, the offensive line play and the run game.
Until the Vikings clarify their willingness to move off of McCarthy (publicly or privately), skepticism about the likelihood of winning the job could persist. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ recent hires of assistant head coach Frank Smith and assistant offensive line coach Derek Warehime hint at a revamped rushing attack and an investment in the run phase.
How does the Vikings’ salary cap situation play into this conversation?
Only the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to be further over the cap than the Vikings. Minnesota must clear at least $40 million.
As dire as this sounds, the Vikings have structured most of their long-term contracts for young players to manage this dynamic. Jefferson’s contract contains major flexibility. The Vikings could create additional space by moving money around with left tackle Christian Darrisaw, edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, cornerback Byron Murphy Jr., edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel and right guard Will Fries.
Cutting aging veterans is another option, one that would provide some flexibility this spring.
Regardless, while a team like the Jets can spend aggressively on a big-money quarterback, the Vikings have to be mindful. This complicates the pursuit of a player such as Murray, who has a $36.8 million base salary for 2026 and a $19.5 million guaranteed salary for 2027.
Vikings cap experts Rob Brzezinski, Matt Thomas and Emily Badis have the ingenuity to make these types of deals work if they are the priority.
However, adding a sizable quarterback contract would complicate any other free-agent priorities.
Would the Vikings be willing to trade for a quarterback?
This cannot be ruled out.
As we wrote Jan. 4, following the conclusion of the Vikings’ season, “Little is off the table in terms of how aggressive the Vikings will be, according to multiple team and league sources.”
The Vikings are projected to have nine draft picks for 2026 and all of their premium picks in 2027 and 2028. They also have an extensive recent history of trading conditional picks. The likelihood of this depends on who is truly available and at what cost. The more likely scenario is not a massive swing involving multiple first-round picks, but rather a trade involving picks and conditions tied to playing time.
Because there is a bevy of options in the mid-tier quarterback level, the Vikings shouldn’t have to overpay. Contract size also plays a role in this context.
The more money Minnesota would have to take on, the less willing it would be to part with a more premium pick.
Mac Jones could be a trade target for QB-needy NFL teams this offseason, but the San Francisco 49ers may be reluctant to part ways with him. (Kevin Ng / Imagn Images)
Which of the available quarterback options makes the most sense?
There is perhaps no candidate who checks more boxes for what the Vikings are looking for than San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones.
He has the pedigree as a former first-rounder. Like former Vikings starter Sam Darnold, he spent a season with Kyle Shanahan in a similar system. Jones pushes the ball over the middle of the field. He anticipates. His guaranteed salary for 2026 is only $1 million. And he has shown an ability to play through injury and win games for a locker room that quickly embraced him.
The biggest hurdle here might be prying Jones from San Francisco. The 49ers are going to drive a hard bargain.
“For teams looking to swing a deal for 49ers backup QB Mac Jones,” The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported a couple of weeks ago, “I’m told San Francisco is not looking to part with the 2021 first-rounder. Things and offers can change, but the 49ers’ preference is to keep their Brock Purdy-Jones tandem intact for 2026.”
If the 49ers keep Jones, they’ll be in line for a solid compensatory pick after the 2026 season. This increases their leverage, which will drive up the cost for Jones.
Plenty of other veteran quarterbacks could operate O’Connell’s offense with varying degrees of effectiveness and upside. Murray, Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins could be looking for new teams, while Derek Carr would entertain the idea of un-retiring to lead a team like the Vikings.
What else is relevant to know?
Last year, the Vikings didn’t fill out their quarterback room until the NFL Draft. Answers should come sooner this time around.
The league’s legal tampering period begins on March 9, spurring planning and decision-making. Conversations at the NFL combine provide a clear understanding of the QB marketplace. Then, the movement will occur.
If anything, many around the league believe the Vikings’ eventual answer will speak volumes about their belief in McCarthy. Secure the services of an experienced starter (via meaningful trade capital or a sizable contract), and the Vikings will be declaring their plans at the most important position, alongside a roster that still has ample talent.
