Frozen Tools Forensics: Potential Rebounds from Johnson, Point, Hintz, Fantilli, Keller, and Toews

Given the break in NHL action over the Olympics, we are taking the next two weeks to dig into the game action to date. The goal for each week is to identify a list of players who have been performing unsustainably. For this week we will be eyeing players who might be in line for an improvement. The following week we will look at players who might drop their pace.

To create the lists, we are focusing on two primary data points: individual shooting percentage and all situations IPP. I often look at team five-on-five shooting percentage as well, and we will be using that for individual player evaluation, but it wasn’t one of the sorting criteria here. The idea is to look beyond a player’s actual point pace and see if players are performing at their usual level. The list below then has a comparison of each player’s data to date compared to their recent averages (about three seasons worth). The idea being that if a player has performed significantly worse (or better) in their shooting percentage so far this season we might expect the remaining games to be more like their career average than the first portion of the season.

For this week we are looking at players who might perform better in the remaining games, so their IPP and shooting percentages are lower than average. This doesn’t necessarily mean they have put up lower point production so far, though that is often the case.

The following table contains some basic player information (name, position, team, total games played so far, and point pace on the season), and then the difference between their current IPP and shooting percentage and their recent career averages. In this case a positive number indicates that their data could improve going forward.

Kent Johnson is in a world of hurt right now. His 27-point pace is tied for a career low, and that is following a career high 69-point pace in 2024-25. Given he is on this list we might be expecting the answer to be, well, he is bound to be better, but unfortunately there is a lot to unpack here. The short answer is sure, he should probably be a bit better, but how much matters. Johnson’s 69-point pace was buoyed by some very, very favorable percentages. The good news though was that he saw a career high 17 plus minutes a night on average, saw over 70 percent of the team’s power play, and put up almost two shots per game. If those were to sustain (or potentially improve) in 25-26, we still likely would have seen some regression, but some of it could have been avoided. Unfortunately, that is not what has happened. Johnson has been shuffled down the lineup dropping almost four minutes of ice time overall, and almost half of his power-play time. Unsurprisingly he also has been shooting less per game. This deployment looks an awful lot like what he saw back in 22-23 and 23-24 where he put up 40-point and 31-point paces respectively. Given that the 27-point pace becomes a lot less surprising. So technically yes, Johnson could improve on his 27-point pace. Given his current deployment, though, a 40-point pace looks like his absolute ceiling.

Brayden Point is also an interesting case study here. His 66-point pace is well off the mark for his recent production because he has essentially been a 90-point player since 22-23. Like with Johnson, there are some extenuating circumstances here. If we look a little closer, we can see a marginally declining point pace since that 22-23 season (from a 95-point pace, to an 87-point pace in 24-25). We also see declining shot rates, from a high of 2.9 (in 22-23) to 2.4 in (in 24-25). Fast forward to 25-26 and he is seeing just over 18 minutes a night (his lowest since 16-17), 2.2 shots per game (his lowest since 19-20), and his lowest power-play percentage in the past three seasons. So yes, his shooting percentage is significantly lower than average, but he is also seeing some broader decreases that make it less likely he will get back to those 90-point heights. Overall, I see him maxing out at a 75-point pace the rest of the way given all of these decreases.

Roope Hintz is a different case. His 69-point pace is essentially matching his past two seasons, but he is doing it with a significantly lower shooting percentage and a lower IPP. Digging a little deeper we see that he has increased about 30 seconds of overall time on ice, seen a 15 percent bump in his power-play deployment, and is shooting more than he has over the past two seasons. Playing with a resurgent Jason Robertson and getting time with Mikko Rantanen on the power play is also helpful. The moral of this story is we are seeing some improvement in his deployment, but it has not entirely translated to point production. We are still learning how the addition of Rantanen changes the way Hintz impacts team scoring, but it looks like there is some room for growth here and a 75-80 point pace the rest of the way doesn’t seem out of the possible realm.

Devon Toews, like with a few of our other examples, is underperforming, but also trending down. He is clearly shooting at a lower-than-expected rate and if that were to rebound, he would be scoring at closer to a 35-point pace. That is still a disappointment though and would be his lowest pace since 19-20. The bigger problem is that his shot rates have been trending down since 21-22 from almost 2.5 per game down to 1.4 this year. He has also lost three minutes of average time on ice since then, and about 20 percent of the team’s power-play time. Toews has historically been a very solid 50-point second power-play D but losing the time and the shot rates have definitely lowered his ceiling.

Adam Fantilli is on a 53-point pace so far this season, which is essentially a repeat of the 24-25 season. Things that are not a repeat: almost 19 minutes of average time on ice, more than 60 percent of the team’s power-play, and more than two and a half shots per game. So yes, we have a player who is improving his numbers across the board, but is still scoring at the same rate. That gap seems to be almost entirely due to some unfavorable percentages. Something to keep in mind is Fantilli’s line mates. Beyond just time on ice, we want to see him with Kirill Marchenko. If that happens, and he gets the rebound in percentages it seems like he deserves, we are talking about a 75-point pace ceiling.

Clayton Keller makes the list here coming off a 90-point pace in 24-25. So far, his 78-point pace looks like a bit of a disappointment, though it is pretty much in alignment with three of his last four seasons. Given his inclusion on this list, we know that he is seeing a bit of potential bad luck. While that is true, the potential impact on his overall point pace isn’t that dramatic. A lot of his deployment and production stats (time on ice, shots etc.) are pretty consistent across years. It looks like Keller is due a bit better, maybe closer to an 85-point pace if things break right.

That is all for this week.

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