The scene has been set. Dusty May’s No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. Jon Scheyer’s No. 3 Duke Blue Devils at a neutral site in Washington D.C. For all the marbles…maybe? In one of the most unexpected non-conference matchups of all time, we get a top-three battle between college basketball juggernauts in late February.
This begs the question: does the game really matter?
From a pure vibes perspective, of course it matters. Duke is one of the most hated college basketball programs in the country. Michigan has a longstanding quasi-rivalry with the Blue Devils. Should Michigan win, they will be the prohibitive favorite to win the National Championship, if they aren’t already. The question will turn from “is Michigan the favorite to win it all this year?” to “is this one of the best college basketball teams of all time?
While it’s certainly enjoyable as a Michigan fan to have Michigan’s name held in such high an echelon, is that the be-all end-all?
For Duke, this is an opportunity to jump up to the No. 1 team in the country. AP voters will likely find it impossible to have Michigan ahead of Duke should the Blue Devils win the game. Depending on what happens in the equally important Houston vs. Arizona game tomorrow, Duke could be sitting at No. 1 in the polls on Monday.
A win for the Blue Devils would also likely cement their place as a 1-seed. There’s certainly still a path to that if they lose this game, but a win over Michigan would just about lock it up.
However, we must examine the flip side of this argument to determine the importance of this matchup. What happens to the loser?
If Michigan loses this game, not a whole lot changes. The Wolverines would likely drop to No. 2 or No. 3 in the AP Poll but would still firmly be a 1-seed. Michigan’s standing as the leaders in the clubhouse for the Big Ten title would also remain unchanged. Even if Duke were to be the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, they would likely be placed in the East Region, allowing Michigan to still stay in the Midwest.
As for a Duke loss, the Blue Devils likely wouldn’t be dinged in the polls for losing to the No. 1 team in the country and a 1-seed would still very much be in play. Similar to what we said about a Michigan loss, Duke could even still get its preferred region, while Arizona (the other clear 1-seed at the moment) would go to the West.
The takeaway here seems to be the winner will reap some rewards, but the damages to the loser are minimal. With that in mind, it’s hard for me to justify this game to be as massive as the polls and record-books would indicate. Don’t get me wrong, I’m immensely excited for the game. It just doesn’t have the same juice it could given the current domination by both squads.
How important do you think the game is? Will the loser be hurt more than I laid out above? How badly does Duke need this game? How badly does Michigan need it? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
