Will Louisville basketball beat UNC today? Our expert prediction

Louisville basketball beats Georgia Tech, C.L. Brown’s One Take

The Cardinals committed a season-high 18 turnovers against Georgia Tech, which they’ll have to fix heading into their final four games of the season.

• Louisville basketball has a chance to earn a valuable Quad 1A road win today at No. 19 North Carolina.
• The 20th-ranked Cardinals are 0-6 in Quad 1A games to this point of the season, with a 15.2-point average margin of defeat.
• Who has the edge in this ACC showdown? Check out our score prediction below.

CHAPEL HILL, NC — The theme of last week for Louisville basketball was “The Precious Present.” Pat Kelsey read the book to his team in the cheap seats of the KFC Yum! Center two days before its 87-70 win over Georgia Tech.

“I’m just reminding them of how special the sanctity of that locker room is — and that camaraderie and that brotherhood — and to continue to have gratitude and embrace it,” the coach said after the victory. “Because it’ll be over before you know it.”

If the No. 20 Cardinals (20-7, 9-5 ACC) want to keep the good times rolling, they must prove themselves capable of notching a marquee road win. To this point, they’re 0-4 in Quad 1A games away from home. It’s the most glaring hole in their NCAA Tournament résumé.

Fortunately for them, they have two chances to change that narrative this week, starting with today’s showdown against No. 19 North Carolina (21-6, 9-5) at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Led by fifth-year coach Hubert Davis, the Tar Heels enter today’s game at 27th in the NET and 30th in KenPom.com’s adjusted efficiency rankings after pulling off a 77-64 win at Syracuse over the weekend. UNC has been without one of the best freshmen in the ACC, forward Caleb Wilson, since he suffered a fracture in his left hand during a Feb. 10 loss at Miami.

Prior to UNC’s matchup against the Orange, Davis said Wilson was scheduled to undergo additional imaging this week. The 6-foot-10 Atlanta native remains the Tar Heels’ top scorer and rebounder with 19.8 points and 9.4 boards per game, respectively. He also leads the team in steals (1.5) and blocks (1.4).

“Other than regularly passing the ball to him, he’s doing everything,” Davis said Feb. 20. “Obviously, (he’s) not playing five-on-five or anything like that — no contact. … When he comes back, he’ll be in shape; he’ll be ready to go.”

Aside from Wilson, Henri Veesaar is North Carolina’s most potent weapon. The 7-foot junior forward, who transferred in from Arizona, is averaging 16.5 points and 8.8 rebounds across 30.7 minutes per contest. He was dealing with a lower body injury but returned for the win over Syracuse and produced 19 points, three rebounds and three blocks.

Here’s what you need to know to follow today’s game from home — then a score prediction:

UofL and North Carolina are scheduled to tip off at 7 p.m. today inside the Smith Center.

The game between the Cards and the Tar Heels will air on ESPN, which is channel 602 on AT&T U-Verse; channel 206 on DirecTV; channel 140 on Dish; and channel 506 on Spectrum.

Dave O’Brien (play-by-play), Jay Williams (analyst) and Molly McGrath (sideline) will be on the call.

If you subscribe to a cable package, you’ll be able to livestream the game via ESPN.com and the ESPN app. If you don’t have cable, you can livestream the game via Fubo, which offers a free trial here.

Louisville is a 2⅟₂-point favorite (-118) on DraftKings, which set the over/under at 160⅟₂ points (-115).

No. 19 North Carolina 81, No. 20 Louisville 79: KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are calling this one a toss-up, with the former predicting an 81-80 win for the Cards (51% probability) and the latter favoring the Tar Heels, 81-80 (51% probability). That said, I need to see Kelsey & Co. pull off a Quad 1A road victory before picking them to do so, especially considering their struggles defensively against the best of the best. UNC might not be at full strength, but I think it has enough pieces to give UofL problems. Louisville needs to pack a lot of 3s for this road trip — and avoid the empty crunch-time possessions that proved costly during last week’s loss at SMU.

• Friday, Oct. 24: vs. Kansas (exhibition) | SCORE: Kansas 90, Louisville 82
• Tuesday, Oct. 28: vs. Bucknell (exhibition) | SCORE: Louisville 99, Bucknell 76
• Monday, Nov. 3: vs. South Carolina State | SCORE: Louisville 104, South Carolina State 45
• Thursday, Nov. 6: vs. Jackson State | SCORE: Louisville 106, Jackson State 70
• Tuesday, Nov. 11: vs. Kentucky | SCORE: Louisville 96, Kentucky 88
• Saturday, Nov. 15: vs. Ohio | SCORE: Louisville 106, Ohio 81
• Friday, Nov. 21: vs. Cincinnati | SCORE: Louisville 74, Cincinnati 64
• Monday, Nov. 24: vs. Eastern Michigan | SCORE: Louisville 87, Eastern Michigan 46
• Wednesday, Nov. 26: vs. NJIT | SCORE: Louisville 104, NJIT 47
• Wednesday, Dec. 3: at Arkansas (ACC/SEC Challenge) | SCORE: Arkansas 89, Louisville 80
• Saturday, Dec. 6: vs. Indiana (at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis) | SCORE: Louisville 87, Indiana 78
• Saturday, Dec. 13: vs. Memphis | SCORE: Louisville 99, Memphis 73
• Tuesday, Dec. 16: at Tennessee | SCORE: Tennessee 83, Louisville 62
• Saturday, Dec. 20: vs. Montana | SCORE: Louisville 94, Montana 54
• Tuesday, Dec. 30: at California | SCORE: Louisville 90, California 70
• Friday, Jan. 2: at Stanford | SCORE: Stanford 80, Louisville 76
• Tuesday, Jan. 6: vs. Duke | SCORE: Duke 84, Louisville 73
• Saturday, Jan. 10: vs. Boston College | SCORE: Louisville 75, Boston College 62
• Tuesday, Jan. 13: vs. Virginia | SCORE: Virginia 79, Louisville 70
• Saturday, Jan. 17: at Pittsburgh | SCORE: Louisville 100, Pittsburgh 59
• Saturday, Jan. 24: vs. Virginia Tech | SCORE: Louisville 85, Virginia Tech 71
• Monday, Jan. 26: at Duke | SCORE: Duke 83, Louisville 52
• Saturday, Jan. 31: vs. SMU | SCORE: Louisville 88, SMU 74
• Wednesday, Feb. 4: vs. Notre Dame | SCORE: Louisville 76, Notre Dame 65
• Saturday, Feb. 7: at Wake Forest | SCORE: Louisville 88, Wake Forest 80
• Monday, Feb. 9: vs. N.C. State | SCORE: Louisville 118, N.C. State 77
• Saturday, Feb. 14: vs. Baylor (at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas) | SCORE: Louisville 82, Baylor 71
• Tuesday, Feb. 17: at SMU | SCORE: SMU 95, Louisville 85
• Saturday, Feb. 21: vs. Georgia Tech | SCORE: Louisville 87, Georgia Tech 70
• Monday, Feb. 23: at North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN
• Saturday, Feb. 28: at Clemson, 2 p.m., ESPN2
• Tuesday, March 3: vs. Syracuse, 9 p.m., ACC Network
• Saturday, March 7: at Miami, 2 p.m., either ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU
• Tuesday, March 10, through Saturday, March 14: ACC Tournament (Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina)

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.