The details offered by the Mexican government about Sunday’s operation to capture Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” the head of one of the country’s most powerful criminal groups, could easily find a home in a Hollywood script.
After tracking El Mencho’s lover to his lair, Mexican special forces launched an operation by air and land, leading to two shootouts that left the drug boss mortally wounded. El Mencho eventually died aboard a military helicopter as it flew to get him medical aid.
Gen. Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, the secretary of national defence, described these details for the world to hear during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s weekday morning news conference on Monday.
Yet one of the key aspects of this narrative remained obscured — why the Mexican government decided this was the right time to decapitate the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), one of the most powerful organized crime groups in the country.
The move carries potentially significant risk as the country prepares to co-host the World Cup of soccer in a little over four months.
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Calm has started to return to Mexico following the killing of the powerful cartel leader known as El Mencho, but travel advisories remain and Canadians are waiting for flights to resume. Meanwhile, Mexico’s president said authorities tracked a romantic partner of the drug kingpin to start the operation that left about 30 cartel members and 25 troops dead.
The decision to strike involved multiple factors, say experts in Mexico, including a window of opportunity combined with the ongoing pressure the Sheinbaum administration has faced from the U.S., which supplied intelligence used in the operation.
El Mencho was the last of the major drug bosses who remained on the loose. His criminal organization is also a major exporter of fentanyl to the U.S., said José Reveles, a veteran Mexican journalist and author who has investigated organized crime and corruption.
El Mencho was also ailing, requiring regular dialysis treatment, which he received from a personal mobile clinic, said Reveles.
“It is possible that the turning point was specifically that intelligence came from the United States,” he said.
“[President] Donald Trump claimed that [the Mexican] government was doing nothing against the ‘terrorists,’ which is how he refers to drug trafficking.… This reduces some of that pressure.”
‘Most resonant triumph’
The CJNG is not only a major international player in the drug trade, but is also involved in running extortion rackets throughout the agriculture sector, which includes targets like avocado and lime growers.
The CJNG has been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Canada.
Reveles said the government may have struck to weaken the CJNG with the World Cup on the horizon.
“This helps to keep the country peaceful,” said Reveles, who called called it Sheinbaum’s “most resonant triumph” since she took power in October 2024.
“Obviously, she is also recognizing the participation of the U.S.,” said Reveles.
El Mencho’s death has also given Sheinbaum a major card to play as she works to stave off Trump’s stated desire to see U.S. troops battle organized crime groups in Mexico, said David Mora, a senior analyst with International Crisis Group.
Sheinbaum has consistently presented a model of co-operation with the U.S. that includes a high degree of intelligence-sharing.
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Violence and shelter-in-place orders are rippling out across Mexico after the military killed a cartel leader commonly known as ‘El Mencho.’ Andrew Chang explains how Jalisco New Generation, arguably Mexico’s most dangerous cartel, has been building a criminal empire for several years.
Images provided by The Canadian Press, Reuters and Getty Images
However, when it comes to making a move based on that information, the president has insisted only Mexican boots are allowed in operations on Mexican soil, said Mora.
“This is Claudia Sheinbaum providing a win that is legible for Trump, but also stating that Mexican troops can do it,” he said.
Previous government decided against operation
David Saucedo, a corporate security advisor based in Mexico City, said there was a widespread belief in national security circles that the government was waiting until after the World Cup to move against El Mencho.
So Sunday’s operation “was something that was unexpected,” he said.
A newspaper seller in Mexico City on Monday arranges front pages, which nearly all show pictures of dead drug lord Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho. (Quetzalli Nicte-Ha/Reuters)
Under Sheinbaum’s predecessor, president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Mexican government had El Mencho in their sights — with the help of U.S. intelligence — at least twice, he said.
“But [López Obrador] decided against an operation, knowing that there would be acts of narcoterrorism that we saw on Sunday,” said Saucedo.
More than 250 road and highway blockades, often with flaming vehicles, flared across 20 states on Sunday, Mexican authorities said.
The state of Jalisco, and its tourist hotspot of Puerto Vallarta, appeared to have suffered the brunt of violence that was believed to have been a reaction to El Mencho’s capture and death.
International airlines like Air Canada and WestJet cancelled flights to the coastal city in the wake of the disturbances. Flights are expected to resume on Tuesday.
The Mexican government has sent about 9,500 troops into Jalisco to pacify the state while clearing out the majority of blockades in other parts of the country.
In Puerto Vallarta on Monday, the streets were quiet and many stores and restaurants remained closed. There also appeared to be a limited overt presence of Mexican security forces patrolling during the day.
‘A very complex board’
Saucedo said it appeared things were returning to their normal balance between the CJNG and federal authorities.
“The Jalisco cartel has almost total control of the state of Jalisco,” said Saucedo. “For some time now, the National Guard hasn’t combatted the Jalisco cartel in zones where the Jalisco cartel dominates.”
Mora said the Sheinbaum government made a “high-risk bet” by taking out the head of the CJNG, which, as was witnessed on Sunday, has a presence in the majority of the country.
The death of El Mencho could lead to a power struggle within the cartel while also tempting rival organizations, which have lost territory to the CJNG, to strike while sensing weakness, said Mora.
This comes while the government continues to grapple with nearly 18 months of violence in the state of Sinaloa, caused by a fracture within the Sinaloa cartel, which has left thousands dead and disappeared.
Mora said the Sheinbaum administration is also attempting to pacify Michoacán, El Mencho’s home state and the country’s main avocado-growing region, where the CJNG has rivals.
“It’s a very complex board in which they operate,” he said.
