Remember when the haters told us that Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions were in big trouble after they lost both coordinators in the offseason?
And then when they doubled down and said I told you so right after Detroit’s ugly 27-13 loss to the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers in Week 1?
It was John Morton’s first shot at calling plays as the offensive coordinator for the Lions after the mad genius Ben Johnson left to be the head coach of the NFC North rival Chicago Bears.
Kelvin Sheppard also made his regular season debut as the defensive coordinator following Aaron Glenn’s departure to be the head coach of the New York Jets.
That double-digit loss at Lambeau Field was supposed to be a haunting sign of things to come.
Instead, it was a false start that now seems like a distant memory after the Lions averaged 41.3 points per game while winning and covering the spread in three straight games to take over sole possession of first place in the NFC North standings.
Detroit’s dominance is expected to continue with a trip to face the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday afternoon.
The Lions are the biggest favourite on the board at -10.5.
It’s the first time Detroit has laid at least 9.5 points in a road game since 1973.
In fact, the Lions have been a road favourite of seven points or more only once over the past three decades.
Campbell’s 53-30 ATS record is the best mark by any coach since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.
Detroit is 11-2 ATS as a road favourite over the last three seasons and 15-4 ATS in road games overall.
The Lions’ defence has recorded the second-most sacks in the entire NFL and is coming off its best performance of the season after holding the Cleveland Browns to 10 points in a Week 4 win.
Combine an improving defence with an offence that leads the NFL in points per game for the second year in a row, and this becomes a nightmare match-up for a Bengals’ team that is coming off consecutive blowout losses to the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos without their franchise quarterback Joe Burrow.
If you’re a regular reader of my work or you follow me on X, then you know I’m on running back David Montgomery to rush for 50 or more yards as a best bet.
The tandem of Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have picked up where they left off last season as the league’s only running back tandem that have both delivered three or more rushing touchdowns this season.
Detroit leads the NFL with 531 running back rush yards.
There’s absolutely no reason to expect the Lions run game to stall in Cincinnati on Sunday.
The Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the seventh-most rushing yards overall this season.
While Gibbs has 15 more carries than Montgomery through four games, there are a couple of reasons why we could see Monty’s workload spike this weekend.
First, Cincinnati has struggled against zone rushing concepts, allowing over five years per carry this season.
The Lions have featured Montgomery heavily in this same zone rushing concept, making this the perfect match-up for the veteran running back to thrive.
Additionally, Detroit is a 10.5-point road favourite, and their pass rate over expectation drops significantly when they have the lead.
Then there’s the going beyond the box score to consider the fact that Montgomery was born in Cincinnati, Ohio, and played high school football just 20 minutes away from the Bengals stadium.
Montgomery’s friends and family will be in attendance to watch him play in his hometown.
Campbell might never get the credit he deserves for what he’s built in Detroit, but we know how much he cares about his players, and I believe he knows he can build off the momentum generated by a monster performance by Montgomery in his homecoming game.
I’d like Montgomery over 49.5 rushing yards as a play even without the added hometown sentiment factor.
Combine the skill set, match-up, sentiment, and the fact that the Lions are a 10.5-point favourite and that’s enough for me to break out a ladder for Sunday’s game.
Meanwhile, my morning will start with waking up early, grabbing a couple of black eyes, and heading into the office early to watch another NFC North contender in Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Cleveland Browns.
Jalen Nailor and the Vikings let me down big time in last week’s NFL International Game loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Ireland.
This time around, I’ll be cheering for Cleveland’s rookie running back Quinshon Judkins to rush for 72 or more yards against the Vikings.
The Browns have averaged 14.0 points per game this season – the second-worst mark in the entire NFL.
This week, Cleveland decided to hand the reigns to rookie third round pick quarterback Dillon Gabriel against a Brian Flores defence that has the third-highest blitz rate in the entire NFL.
I was initially surprised when I found out that this was the week the Browns were giving Gabriel his first NFL start.
Then I took a closer look at the numbers and immediately realized why they made the change this week.
The Minnesota defence has faced the third-most running back rushing attempts this season.
The Vikings have been gashed for 521 rushing yards on just 115 attempts for an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
As tough as the match-up might be for Gabriel on paper, it becomes a lot easier if Cleveland can establish its rush attack against one of the league’s worst run defences.
Judkins has recorded at least 61 rushing yards in each of his first three NFL appearances, including 94 and 82 in his previous two games.
He’s also registered 90+ scrimmage yards and a TD in each of his previous two starts.
Now he gets to face a defence that was just gashed by Kenneth Gainwell for 99 rushing yards and two scores on 5.2 yards per carry last week.
I bet Judkins to register 72 or more rushing yards.
I also bet Jordan Addison to go for 41 or more receiving yards after he went off for 114 yards on four catches in his regular season debut against the Steelers last week.
You can find all my plays for NFL Sunday Week 5 at the bottom of this article, but I did want to highlight a couple of match-ups before we get to Sunday Night Football.
First up, the Indianapolis Colts are a seven-point favourite at home against the Las Vegas Raiders at 1 PM ET.
There’s been a lot of jokes about Daniel Jones and his ability to lead one of the most efficient offences in the entire NFL, but the reality is likely some combination of the following factors.
Indianapolis has wins over the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, and the Tennessee Titans.
None of those three teams are considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders and there’s a good chance both Miami and Tennessee finish in the bottom 10 in the NFL.
The Colts should have beat the Rams in Week 4, but mistakes ultimately cost them in a game they needed to play mistake-free to secure a victory.
There’s also the fact that the Indianapolis offence is one of the most complete in the NFL outside of the QB position, including one of the league’s best offensive lines, one of the league’s best running backs, and one of the league’s best tight ends.
Yes, rookie Tyler Warren is already among the best in the entire NFL at his position.
The combination of a strong rushing attack led by Jonathan Taylor and a play-action game built off that run game featuring Warren, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs makes the Colts an interesting offence to bet on.
This week, they face a Raiders defence that can’t be trusted against either the run or the pass and I expect Indianapolis to take advantage on their home turf.
Taylor leads the NFL with 103.5 rushing yards per game, and I expect him to produce a similar number on Sunday.
Warren leads all NFL tight ends with 263 receiving yards – the most receiving yards through a tight end’s first four games in NFL history.
Taylor and Warren have combined for the most scrimmage yards (796) by a running back/tight end tandem in the NFL through four weeks and should be able to dominate a suspect Las Vegas defence.
I bet Taylor over 88.5 rushing yards and Warren over 53.5 receiving yards at FanDuel and posted both of those plays to my X account on Friday.
As for rookie tight ends, the Mason Taylor breakout game will never be forgotten.
Let’s hope he can take advantage of another favourable match-up with 30 or more receiving yards against the 32nd-ranked Dallas Cowboys defence this week.
Speaking of that leaky Cowboys pass defence, Garrett Wilson has averaged 6.8 receptions for 77.8 yards in four games this season.
He’s registered 82 or more receiving yards in three of four games.
I bet Wilson to go over 60.5 receiving yards versus Dallas.
I also like George Pickens over 68.5 receiving yards and Jake Ferguson over 5.5 receptions in that game.
The Cowboys lead the NFL with 404.3 total yards per game this season.
Dak Prescott leads the league with 1,119 passing yards.
With CeeDee Lamb and Kavontae Turpin both sidelined, it will be up to Pickens and Ferguson to pick up the slack in a must-win game at MetLife Stadium.
Pickens just went off with eight receptions for 134 yards and two touchdowns in a tie with the Packers last week.
Ferguson leads the Cowboys with 34 receptions this season for an average of 8.5 per game.
Pickens and Ferguson will both step up against the Jets.
Elsewhere, the New Orleans Saints will attempt to secure their first win of the season against the New York Giants.
The Saints are playing at a remarkable pace and often in positions where they need to throw playing from behind.
The Giants have allowed the most receptions and the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
With tight end Juwan Johnson banged up for New Orleans, I played Rasheed Shaheed over 36.5 receiving yards as another FanDuel Best Bet.
I also like Canadian rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor to step up for the Tennessee Titans against the Arizona Cardinals with 33 or more receiving yards.
Ayomanor has averaged 3.0 receptions for 37.8 yards in his first four NFL games.
With Calvin Ridley banged up, and the Cardinals defence allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the rookie connection between Cam Ward and Ayomanor is one to watch on Sunday.
As for Sunday Night Football, I bet on Josh Allen to feature his top two weapons in an AFC East showdown with the New England Patriots.
New England has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, opening the door for another big game from Dalton Kincaid.
Meanwhile, Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez will likely deal with Keon Coleman on the outside, leaving Josh Allen’s top option Khalil Shakir in the middle of the field to gain some big chunks in the passing game.
Considering how low the numbers are for Shakir and Kincaid, I’m willing to bet on both Bills’ pass catchers to go over their receiving yards props on Sunday night.
Finally, I’ll buy into the Stefon Diggs revenge game angle.
The last time Diggs played against the Bills, he had six catches for 82 yards for the Houston Texans in a win over Buffalo.
The Patriots have ramped up Diggs’ workload every week.
In Week 4, Diggs went off with six catches for 101 receiving yards in a win over the Carolina Panthers to solidify his position as the primary slot receiver.
If anybody knows how to attack Buffalo’s Cover 3, it’s the former Bills star receiver.
I’ll lock in Diggs over 46.5 receiving yards as one final FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday Night Football.
As promised, here is The Playbook for NFL Sunday:
NFL Sunday Best Bets
9:30 AM ET
Quinshon Judkins over 71.5 rushing yards
Jordan Addison over 40.5 receiving yards
1 PM ET
Jonathan Taylor over 88.5 rushing yards
Tyler Warren over 53.5 receiving yards
George Pickens over 68.5 receiving yards
Jake Ferguson over 5.5 receptions
Mason Taylor over 29.5 receiving yards
Garrett Wilson over 60.5 receiving yards
Rasheed Shaheed over 36.5 receiving yards
Spencer Rattler over 14.5 rushing yards
Tommy Tremble 25+ receiving yards
+100 ML Parlay: Colts, Cardinals, Bills
4 PM ET
David Montgomery over 49.5 rushing yards
Chargers -2.5 vs Commanders
Elic Ayomanor over 32.5 receiving yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 77.5 receiving yards
Tory Horton over 19.5 receiving yards
Sunday Night Football
Khalil Shakir over 42.5 receiving yards
Dalton Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards
Stefon Diggs over 46.5 receiving yards
