The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts New Mexico on Tuesday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
New Mexico (21-6, 12-4 MW) at Nevada (18-9, 10-6)
When: Tuesday, 8 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Nevada favored by 1.5; total of 152.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Strong one-on-one post defense: New Mexico beat Nevada in the first matchup between the teams because the Lobos made 12 3-pointers and the Wolf Pack six. That was an 18-point difference in a seven-point game. Nevada can’t afford to be outshot from three like that again, and the Wolf Pack has allowed back-to-back foes to hit 15 3-pointers. The challenge against New Mexico will be playing one-on-one post defense without having to double Tomislav Buljan and JT Rock. Nevada doubled both in Albuquerque and gave up a lot of open threes as a result. But the Wolf Pack was without starting center Joel Armotrading, who is back, and Elijah Price got in early foul trouble in that game. Nevada being able to defend the post without help would cut down on New Mexico’s open looks from beyond the arc.
2. Make Jake pass: New Mexico’s Jake Hall was awesome in crunch time of the Lobos’ win over Nevada last month. The freshman guard tallied 19 points, six rebounds and four assists, albeit on 6-of-15 shooting. But Hall made 5-of-8 shots and scored 16 points in the second half as the Lobos outscored the Wolf Pack, 44-38. Hall has been great this season, tallying 15.6 ppg while making a league-best 44.6 percent from three, which has ticked up to 47.6 percent from deep in MW play. Simply put, Nevada can’t let Hall beat it. The Wolf Pack must make him put the ball on the floor and make plays for others because if he gets hot from three, it’s danger territory. In New Mexico wins, Hall averages 16.8 ppg on 51.8/47.3/80.8 shooting. In losses, those marks fall to 12.2 ppg on 39.1/34.0/58.3 shooting.
3. Finish in the post: New Mexico is the second-best team in the MW in avoiding fouls, being whistled on 24.1 percent of its opponents’ possessions. The only team better in the MW is Fresno State, which has held Nevada to point totals of 66 and 69. Nevada is pretty reliant on the free throw line, ranking third in the nation in drawing fouls (29.8 percent). The whistle will be important, but Nevada can’t rely on it given the Lobos’ ability to defend without fouling. The Wolf Pack shot just 21 free throws at New Mexico and is 6-6 when shooting 23 or fewer free throws and 12-3 when shooting 24-plus free throws. While the Lobos don’t foul a lot, they are susceptible to giving up a high percentage from two (52.8 percent in league, seventh in MW). Nevada must finish those shots if they’re not getting a quick whistle.
Prediction
Nevada 75, New Mexico 72: This is a coin-flip game that’s important for both sides as New Mexico tries to stay in the MW title hunt and Nevada battles for a first-round bye at the conference tournament. New Mexico has crushed teams from beyond the arc, hitting 36.6 percent of its threes while holding foes to 29.3 percent from deep. There’s been an even starker difference in league play where New Mexico has shot 39.3 percent to its opponents’ 29.4 percent. If those stats hold, Nevada will be hard-pressed to win. But in close-game situations, we favor the home team. Season record: 18-9
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
