Data Skrive
The Houston Rockets (37-21) will look to extend a three-game winning streak when visiting the Miami Heat (31-29) on February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The Rockets match up with the Heat in a game that Houston is currently a moderate favorite by 2.5 points. A 225.5-point over/under is set for the matchup.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Rockets-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.
Rockets vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds
- When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
- TV: Amazon Prime Video and SCHN
- Live Boxscore: FOX Sports
Rockets vs Heat Betting Information Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Rockets -2.5 -110 -110 225.5 -110 -110 -146 +124
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Rockets vs. Heat Prediction
ATS Pick: Heat (+ 2.5)
O/U Pick: Over (225.5)
Score Prediction: Rockets 116 – Heat 115
Rockets vs. Heat Betting Insights
- The Rockets have played 25 games with more than 225.5 points scored, their current matchup’s point total, this season.
- The Heat games have gone over 225.5 total points scored in 44 of 60 total matchups this season.
- The two teams average a combined 9.1 more points per game, 234.6, than this game’s total of 225.5 points.
- The Rockets and the Heat have seen their opponents average a combined 0.8 more points per game than the point total of 225.5 set for this matchup.
- Houston has won 34, or 65.4%, of the 52 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
- Miami has won in 13, or 43.3%, of the 30 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
- In the last two head-to-head matchups, Houston and Miami have a tied 1-1 record.
- The Heat have a 2-0 edge against the spread when playing the Rockets.
- The Rockets covered the spread in their previous four games, and were favored in three of them.
Rockets Recent Trends
- The Rockets have gone 6-4 in their last 10 contests, with a 5-5 record against the spread during that span.
- Houston and its opponents have combined to score an average of 217.1 points over its last 10 games, 8.4 less than the 225.5 over/under in this matchup.
- The Rockets are 27-31-0 against the spread this season.
- So far this season, Houston has been installed as favorites by a 2.5-point margin or more 47 times and are 19-28 ATS in those matchups.
- Rockets games this year have eclipsed the over/under 25 times in 60 opportunities (41.7%).
- The Rockets score 114.7 points per game, just 2.5 fewer points than the 117.2 the Heat give up.
- Houston has a 14-9 record against the spread and a 17-6 record overall when scoring more than 117.2 points.
- The Rockets make 47.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (45.8%).
- The Rockets have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered 10 times in 27 games at home, and they’ve covered 17 times in 31 games when playing on the road.
- When it comes to over/unders, Houston hits the over less consistently when playing at home, as it has gone over the total nine times in 27 opportunities this season (33.3%). In road games, it has hit the over 16 times in 31 opportunities (51.6%).
- The Rockets have won a higher percentage of their games as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 20-6 (.769). On the road as a moneyline favorite, they have a record of 14-12 (.538).
Rockets Recent Stats
Stat Average Rank Points Scored 114.7 21 Points Allowed 109.1 3 Rebounds 48.3 1 Assists 24.8 25 Steals 8.8 10 Blocks 6 2
Rockets Leaders
- Kevin Durant puts up 26.1 points, 4.5 assists and 5.4 boards per game.
- Alperen Sengun puts up 20.4 points, 9.2 boards and 6.4 assists per game, shooting 50% from the floor.
- Amen Thompson puts up 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.5 steals (eighth in NBA) and 0.6 blocks.
- Reed Sheppard posts 13.1 points, 2.6 boards and 3 assists per game. At the other end, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks.
- Tari Eason averages 11.5 points, 1.6 assists and 6.2 rebounds.
Rockets Player Props
Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG Kevin Durant 26.5 -128 26.1 Alperen Sengun 19.5 -128 20.4 Amen Thompson 15.5 -130 17.3 Reed Sheppard 14.5 -106 13.1 Tari Eason 13.5 -128 11.5
Heat Recent Trends
- The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.
- Miami’s average total over the last 10 games is 9.8 points greater than the 225.5 total listed for this matchup.
- Against the spread, the Heat are 34-25-1 this season.
- Miami is 14-9-1 ATS when underdogs by 2.5 points or more this season.
- Heat games this year have gone over the total in 32 of 60 opportunities (53.3%).
- The Heat average 10.8 more points per game (119.9) than the Rockets give up to opponents (109.1).
- Miami is 32-18 against the spread and 28-20 overall when it scores more than 109.1 points.
- The Heat have shot at a 46.3% rate from the field this season, 0.8 percentage points higher than the 45.5% shooting opponents of the Rockets have averaged.
- Against the spread, the Heat have had better results on the road (19-12-1) than at home (15-13-0) .
- Miami’s games have finished above the over/under more often at home (15 times out of 28) than away (17 of 32) this year.
- As moneyline favorites, the Heat have won a lower percentage of games at home (12-9) than on the road (6-3).
Heat Recent Stats
Stat Average Rank Points Scored 119.9 2 Points Allowed 117.2 20 Rebounds 47.3 2 Assists 28.7 7 Steals 9.1 7 Blocks 4.2 23
Heat Leaders
- Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. He’s also sinking 44.7% of his shots from the floor and 33.9% from 3-point range, with 1.7 triples per contest.
- On a per-game basis, Andrew Wiggins gives the Heat 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He also averages 1.1 steals and 1 block.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. gives the Heat 15 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per contest while putting up 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.
- The Heat are getting 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game from Kel’el Ware this season.
- The Heat are getting 8.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 7 assists per game from Davion Mitchell this season.
Heat Player Props
Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG Tyler Herro 20.5 +102 21.2 Bam Adebayo 18.5 -108 18.5 Andrew Wiggins 15.5 -114 16.1 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14.5 -112 15 Pelle Larsson 10.5 -125 10.2
FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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