With the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards behind us, all eyes are now squarely focused on this Sunday’s 32nd Actor Awards, presented by SAG-AFTRA. And if Gold Derby’s annual SAG-AFTRA survey is any indication, there’s a chance the actors could throw the Oscar race for a loop.
Every awards season, we poll as many SAG-AFTRA members as possible ahead of the Actor Awards ceremony. And while we acknowledge that interviewing a few hundred individuals in an organization with over 150,000 members is a small sample size and hardly foolproof, our polling results have foreshadowed some notable surprises in years past.
Five years ago, we warned that Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom would likely topple Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman for Best Actress.
The following year, we practically guaranteed that Troy Kotsur in CODA would overpower Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog for Best Supporting Actor.
Three seasons ago, we explained why Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once could pull a Supporting Actress SAG shocker.
And just last year, we offered a bold prediction that Conclave might best Wicked for Best Ensemble and that Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown would completely bury Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for Best Actor.
Those calls were all based on SAG surveys conducted by Gold Derby staff. And now we have the results of this year’s canvassing, which we’re presenting below along with a snapshot of our prediction data for each race. A caveat: some of the more than 150 SAG-AFTRA members whom we queried were undecided in certain races, so the tallies might vary from category to category.
It’s quite possible that some of these results will be way off. We won’t know for certain until Sunday. But in the meantime, we hope that you’ll find these numbers fascinating as we did.
BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
One Battle After Another — 59
Sinners — 57
Hamnet — 19
Frankenstein — 12
Marty Supreme — 8
Benicio Del Toro, Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Sean PennJoe Maher/Getty Images
Gold Derby’s polling finds One Battle After Another and Sinners in a virtrual dead heat. Those going with the former cite the first-class cast of actors and the true ensemble nature of the film. “Leo. Teyana. Chase. Sean. Benicio. Every one of them knocks it out of the park, without stealing a scene from anyone else,” one voter explained. As for the latter, many were just as enthusiastic about the performances of the cast as a whole. “There was just an electricity that I felt in all of the actors, from Michael B. Jordan all the way down to the extras,” a Sinners supporter said. We may be looking at a photo finish, with a battle that is simply too close to call.
Meanwhile, here’s how what the Gold Derby odds look like:
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme — 62
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners — 53
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon — 23
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another — 13
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia — 2
Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme’A24
Chalamet won with this group last year, and it appears that they have no qualms about rewarding him again, which would be the first time in history that’s happened. However, Jordan looks to be closing the gap — thanks to a dual role in the stronger Best Ensemble contender. “I really struggled with this one,” we heard from one voter who ultimately went with Jordan. “Timothée was at the top of his game, but Michael had the challenge of playing two parts and he nailed both of them.” We suspect that the outcome here depends on how well Sinners does with SAG-AFTRA as a whole. If it overperforms, Jordan could ping-pong the prize away from Chalamet. As for Hawke, his numbers indicate that he faces an uphill climb, but could be this category’s dark-horse challenger.
Film Actor
1.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
2.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
3.
4.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
5.
BEST ACTRESS
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You — 57
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet — 38
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another — 19
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue — 16
Emma Stone, Bugonia — 4
Rose Byrne in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’A24/Everett Collection
You may notice that there were fewer votes cast in this contest, and that’s because some members told Gold Derby that they had yet to see all five of these films and were not ready to make a final decision. Notably, Byrne holds a sizable lead over presumptive Oscar favorite Buckley. So, what’s going on here? First, there genuinely seems to be a lot of passion for Byrne’s performance. “I thought she was just incredible. It was an actor’s dream role and she absolutely crushed it,” we heard from one voter. Another said, “I always enjoyed Rose’s work in comedies and horror films, but what she did in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You was absolutely phenomenal.”
As for Buckley, she similarly gets very high marks from voters who have screened Hamnet. But many described “the beautifully done” picture as also being a “very tough watch.” A few confessed that they couldn’t get even get through it. Looking at SAG Awards history, this shouldn’t be all that surprising. Its members have much more mainstream tastes than those in the Academy, and aren’t as receptive to inordinately artsy period films. That may explain why recent Oscar champs like Olivia Colman in The Favourite, Emma Stone in Poor Things, and the previously mentioned Adrien Brody in The Brutalist all stumbled at SAG. We’re not saying that Buckley won’t win the Actor Award, but rather that SAG voting patterns (as well as our polling) suggest that this could be the one ceremony where she and Byrne might be reversing roles. (Buckley the bridesmaid and Byrne the bride.)
Film Actress
1.
2.
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3.
Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
4.
5.
Chase Infiniti
One Battle After Another
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Miles Caton, Sinners — 37
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another — 33
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another — 28
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein — 26
Paul Mescal, Hamnet — 23
Miles Caton in ‘Sinners’Warner Bros.
The polling results show suggest an extremely fractured Best Supporting Actor race on our hands, and that makes this one almost impossible to predict. You might also wonder how in the world newcomer (and surprise contender) Caton could be ahead of the likes of much bigger names like Del Toro, Elordi, Mescal, and Penn. However, it’s actually not as wild as it may seem. The genuine consensus is that there’s no clear frontrunner in this category. So the SAG voting here seems to correlate with the popularity of each actor’s film. While Frankenstein and Hamnet both scored Best Ensemble nominations, neither is a serious threat for the win. That works against both Elordi and Mescal.
We then have two big One Battle actors in contention. But actors seem to be divided as to which one (both previous SAG and Oscar winners) is more worthy. Our poll has Del Toro only slightly behind Penn. That split paves the way for a potential upset by Caton. We’ve noticed that many SAG-AFTRA members selecting Sinners for Best Ensemble are checking it off elsewhere on their ballots — including Caton for Best Supporting Actor. “He was so authentic. I felt like wasn’t watching acting but a real person when he was on the screen,” we were told by one voter. Another gushed, “Miles was truly incredible and Sinners was my favorite movie of the year. I was so happy about his nomination, now I want him to win.” Again, this contest is a total crapshoot and anything could happen. Caton may not be miles ahead, but he really could win the race.
Film Supporting Actor
1.
Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
2.
Benicio Del Toro
One Battle After Another
3.
Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
4.
5.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Madigan, Weapons — 81
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another — 36
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners — 29
Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme — 2
Ariana Grande, Wicked — 1
Amy Madigan in ‘Weapons’Warner Bros.
Gold Derby’s survey indicate that we have at least one virtual lock in the film categories at the Actor Awards. We’ve counted more votes for Madigan than all the other actresses combined. “Amazing Amy” is a description that several SAG-AFTRA members used while commenting on Madigan’s terrifying turn in Weapons. “She absolutely blew me away,” one voter exclaimed. “I’m still having nightmares about Aunt Gladys — that’s how much her performance stayed with me,” another admirer confided. Mosaku and Taylor do seem to generate some votes from fans of their respective films, but they appear to have little hope of catching up with Madigan. The role of Aunt Gladys may be the ultimate weapon here.
Film Supporting Actress
1.
2.
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
3.
4.
Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
5.
Odessa A’zion
Marty Supreme
