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Sid Mokhtari, chief market technician at CIBC Capital Markets.Supplied
February was a remarkable month for equity investors with the S&P/TSX Composite Index rising 7.57 per cent.
Strength was broad-based with nine of the 11 sectors posted gains. In fact, seven sectors delivered price returns of 6 per cent or more during the month.
Amongst the sector leaders were materials (gold and silver stocks), consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, health care, utilities and industrials with price returns of 21.6 per cent, 10.4 per cent, 10 per cent, 8.5 per cent, 8.4 per cent, 8.1 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively.
CIBC’s chief market technician Sid Mokhtari publishes a monthly report with his top 10 stock ideas. He screens and selects stocks from the largest 100 members by market capitalization within the S&P/TSX Composite Index. His technically driven stock recommendations have consistently outperformed the broader index across a wide range of market conditions.
Last month, his portfolio of top picks rallied 9.79 per cent, topping the return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 2.22 per cent.
His disciplined process has delivered strong long-term returns. His stock selections have outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index for the past four calendar years. In 2025, his portfolio of stock selections rallied 51.3 per cent, compared to a 28.3 per cent price return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. His stock selections also outperformed the TSX Index in 2024, 2023 and 2022 by 5.8 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points, respectively.
For March, his basket of stock selections includes nine new stocks and one carryover from the prior month. He increased the portfolio’s energy exposure to 40 per cent from 30 per cent and added Keyera Corp. (KEY-T), Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T) and PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T). Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) was carried over from the prior month.
The portfolio’s second-largest sector exposure is materials with two stocks, CCL Industries Inc. (CCL-B-T) and Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T). In financials, Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) was included in his basket of top picks. In consumer discretionary, Magna International Inc. (MG-T) was selected. In communication services, Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI-B-T) was added. Lastly, in the utilities sector, ATCO ltd. (ACO-X-T) was selected.
According to Mr. Mokhtari, over the past 30 years, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has delivered an average return of 1 per cent in March with gains across all sectors except for one. The health care sector has an average loss of 2.9 per cent. Amongst the leading sectors are energy, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials and utilities with gains of 3.1 per cent, 1.3 per cent, 1.2 per cent, 1.2 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.
In his best ideas report published on March 1, Mr. Mokhtari stated, “The TSX index chart appears to have reached its upper trend-channel inflection point and is likely to mean-revert lower. In comparison, the SPX [S&P 500 Index] and NDX [Nasdaq-100 Index] indices have both experienced more distribution days than accumulation with the SPX showing a gradual rolling top below its 50-day average. This suggests that indices show more downside risk than upside potential. Adopting a defensive stance with a barbell strategy may be more appropriate in the near term. A barbell strategy may offer a practical two-bucket approach, balancing offence (optimist) and defense (pessimist) simultaneously.”
He cautioned equity investors remarking, “Recent events over the weekend are likely to trigger an initial risk-off selloff, further reinforcing the latest developing relative-strength weakness in the offence GICS sectors. High-beta technology and consumer cyclical equities may be particularly vulnerable given their already fragile relative-strength conditions.”
Early next week, watch for an in-depth Q&A featuring Mr. Mokhtari’s insights on equity markets, stocks and ETFs.
If you have a question that you would like me to ask Mr. Mokhtari, you can email me at [email protected] and in the subject line state, “question for Mr. Mokhtari”. Unfortunately, not all questions submitted can be covered.
