What is behind the strategy to take out Iran’s leadership?

So what do the killings mean for the course of the war?
In the short term it may make it harder for Iran to muster a response. The confusion caused by the targeting has advantages militarily but could also have risks.
It is not clear if the volleys of missiles and drones being sent across the Middle East are the result of a pre-ordained policy which is now on auto-pilot, if local commanders are acting on their own initiative, or if someone centrally is issuing orders through a functioning chain of command.
The next question is whether the elimination of so many leaders will fundamentally shift Iran’s calculation about whether to continue to fight or find some way out.
A CIA intelligence assessment completed just before the war began predicted that the removal of the supreme leader might lead to hardliners from the Revolutionary Guards taking more control.
Any new leader will have to calculate whether regime survival will be ensured by continuing to fight – or, alternatively, talking and effectively giving in to US demands.
But if they continue to be killed, it may be harder to come to any decision or negotiation.
The US may want to see a figure like Delcy Rodríguez – who took over from Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and is understood to be cooperating with the US – but it is not clear if such a person exists or could lead the state.
And so the last – even more significant question – is whether the killings makes it more likely there will be regime change?
History suggests air power alone is rarely enough, and the US has shown no desire to put boots on the ground.
It may be hoping that taking out security and intelligence forces may help a popular uprising to succeed this time, after protesters were crushed in January.
President Trump called for just such an uprising again and even promised immunity for members of the security forces who laid down their weapons. But the regime is deeply embedded and will do whatever it can to cling to power.
While future leadership is uncertain, the priority for Israel and the US appears to be to do as much damage as they can to the regime.
If that results in change, it may be welcomed by the Iranian people – but the risks will fall on them.




