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Oil is up double digits in a month, the VIX is sitting at 23.57, and Reddit is calling it “Black Swan Territory” — yet the retail crowd holding NVIDIA, Meta, and Microsoft is not selling. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 0.71% over the past week and 1.08% over the past month, yet retail sentiment across its top AI holdings remains bullish. A Strait of Hormuz blockade has pushed WTI crude up 10.3% in a single month and the VIX to. R/investing is calling this “Black Swan Territory” with 2,028 upvotes and 402 comments, and most Reddit communities are not fleeing the AI trade.
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This infographic illustrates the factors driving the bullish sentiment and rally in QQQ and top AI stocks despite geopolitical war risks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
We Are In Black Swan Territory
by u/unknown in investing
As one r/investing user wrote in the thread: “We are in black swan territory – the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Taiwan tensions, and AI valuations stretched to the limit. This is not a normal correction.”
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) represent roughly 24.61% of QQQ. NVIDIA alone is the fund’s single largest holding at 8.63%, what happens to these five names is what happens to QQQ.
The Earnings Are Real, But So Is the Skepticism
NVIDIA posted $68.13 billion in Q4 FY2026 revenue, up 73.2% year-over-year, with Data Center networking surging 263% YoY to $10.98 billion. Microsoft crossed $50 billion in cloud revenue for the first time in a single quarter, with Azure growing 39%. Meta reported a $100 billion AI deal with AMD that briefly sent weekly sentiment to 82 (very bullish). These are not rumor-driven moves. Still, r/stocks is wrestling with whether the numbers justify the prices. A post asking “Is anyone else terrified China takes Taiwan next?” collected 4,506 upvotes and 1,346 comments. The concern is real. The selling has not followed.
With the US hitting Venezuela today, is anyone else terrified China takes Taiwan next? (and bricks the global chip supply)
by u/unknown in stocks
As the original post read: “With the US hitting Venezuela today, is anyone else terrified China takes Taiwan next? (and bricks the global chip supply) – if that happens, NVDA, MSFT, and every AI name goes to zero overnight.”
Google Is the Outlier Retail Investors Are Watching
Meta and Microsoft have the highest weekly sentiment scores at 62.57 and 60.24, respectively. Alphabet is the breakdown story. Its weekly score sits at 36.52, down from a quarterly average of 58.86:
- Alphabet’s CEO sold nearly $10 million of his own stock in a single week, fueling insider-selling anxiety on r/wallstreetbets
- A thread asking “how vulnerable is GOOGL to cheap models from China?” generated 98 comments
- Alphabet’s stock is down 11.69% over the past month, the worst performer in this group
“How vulnerable is GOOGL to cheap models from China? DeepSeek already proved you don’t need $175B in capex to build a competitive model – Google’s moat is evaporating in real time and the market hasn’t fully priced it in yet.” – r/stocks
Palantir’s quarterly sentiment was 59.43, but this week it sits at 45.15. A post titled “Finally took profit on a 10bagger” collected 1,181 upvotes, and Polymarket shows insiders are net selling despite the stock’s 82% one-year gain. The enthusiasm is being tested by what a 233x P/E actually requires to be justified.
Finally took profit on a 10bagger
by u/unknown in wallstreetbets
As the post author wrote: “Finally took profit on a 10bagger – held PLTR since $15, sold at $158. I love this company, but I’m not going to pretend the valuation makes sense at 60x revenue. Taking gains and watching from the sidelines.”
The 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.97% on February 27, its lowest in a year, is compressing discount rates and making future earnings look more valuable. That tailwind is propping up the AI trade even as geopolitical risk builds. If oil pushes past $80 or the VIX spikes past 30, the discount-rate tailwind propping up stretched AI valuations disappears fast.
