Journal Sentinel beat writer analyzes Wisconsin’s win over Maryland
Journal Sentinel beat writer John Steppe shares some quick insights after Wisconsin’s win over Maryland at the Kohl Center.
- Wisconsin faces No. 14 Purdue in its regular-season finale, a rematch of an earlier 16-point loss.
- The Badgers’ frontcourt depth may be tested due to a lower-body injury to starting forward Nolan Winter.
- Wisconsin’s Big Ten Tournament seed could range from No. 4 to No. 6.
- Recent NCAA Tournament projections from ESPN and USA TODAY project the Badgers to be a No. 6 seed.
MADISON – Wisconsin’s last game against Purdue was a reminder of how much work the Badgers still had to do at that point in the season.
It was a 16-point loss – UW’s worst margin of defeat at the Kohl Center in 2025-26 – and the then-sixth-ranked Boilermakers led by as many as 25 points in the second half.
“Obviously when you’re playing a team this experienced, elite, composed, with a terrific point guard, your margin for error – and as I call them, mulligans – are nonexistent,” Wisconsin coach Greg Gard said at the time.
The Badgers have undoubtedly improved since that Jan. 3 loss. Gard’s group has taken mulligans against USC, Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, but UW also has highly desirable wins over then-No. 1 Michigan, then-No. 7 Illinois and then-No. 10 Michigan State.
Wisconsin’s next game will offer somewhat of a measuring stick for UW’s in-season improvement as the Badgers visit No. 14 Purdue on Saturday, March 7, to conclude the regular season. The Boilermakers hardly looked infallible in their March 1 loss at Ohio State, but the Badgers’ rematch has the added challenge of being at the often-boisterous Mackey Arena.
It may be a test of UW’s frontcourt depth as well, following starting forward Nolan Winter’s apparent ankle injury in the March 4 win over Maryland.
Winter hopefully “avoided the worst” with his injury, Gard said after the Maryland game. A team spokesman then told the Journal Sentinel on March 5 that the UW forward is officially “day to day” with a lower-body injury.
If Winter is unavailable, UW would have two available frontcourt players who have averaged 10-plus minutes per game this season against Purdue’s more-than-formidable frontcourt duo of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff.
Here’s how the Badgers – with or without Winter – can help or hurt their positioning in the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament:
What will Wisconsin’s Big Ten Tournament seed be after playing Purdue?
The Badgers’ Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios are rather straightforward going into the final weekend of the regular season.
If the Badgers lose to Purdue, they will be the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament. They will then have a double-bye and play the winner of the game between the No. 11 and 14 seeds in the last game on March 12.
If the Badgers win against Purdue on March 7, their seeding depends on what happens in the Illinois-Maryland game on March 8. If the Fighting Illini win, UW would be the No. 5 seed and play its first game on March 12 after a double-bye. If the Terrapins pull off the improbable upset, the Badgers would earn a triple-bye as the No. 4 seed and first play on March 13.
What are the Badgers’ NCAA Tournament projections ahead of playing Purdue?
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi moved the Badgers to a No. 6 seed in his March 6 bracket projections. UW would face 11th-seeded Texas in the first round and either third-seeded Gonzaga or 14th-seeded UC Irvine in the second round in Portland.
USA TODAY’s March 7 bracket projections similarly slot Wisconsin as a No. 6 seed. The Badgers would face either Auburn or Santa Clara in the first round in San Diego, followed by either third-seeded Texas Tech or 14th-seeded Navy in the second round.
It is impossible to say definitively how an upset in West Lafayette could help the Badgers’ cause. But it would be UW’s sixth Quad 1 win of the season. (Only 24 teams across the country currently have six or more Quad 1 wins.)
Bart Torvik’s Teamcast projections suggest it could bump UW from being the last No. 6 seed to being the top No. 6 seed – hardly a monumental difference. Lunardi also has cautioned against reading too much into any singular result on a team’s March Madness resume.
“Don’t overreact to a single result,” Lunardi told the Journal Sentinel after UW’s top-10 win over Illinois. “And it’s so hard to do that in the moment. At the end of the day, the other night, Wisconsin winning – that’s going to be one-35th of their profile. But in that moment, you think, ‘Oh my God, we’re going to the Final Four.’”
