The Alternative Premier League Table: No 30 – Supporter sentiment and expected points – The Athletic

Welcome to the latest edition of The Alternative Premier League Table, where each week, The Athletic analyses the entire division through a specific lens.

And with over 75 per cent of the Premier League campaign in the books, now feels like a good moment to assess fan sentiment about their team’s season.

To that end, we’ve taken the team ratings data from Fanalysis, an app where fans can rate their team’s performances, including those of the players, manager and even referees, after every match. My colleague Tim Spiers outlined in January how the app works.

Along with those fan expectations, this week’s Alternative Table will also look at how teams have performed against their expected points (xPT) as we enter the defining final stretch of the season.

Key takeaways include:

• Sunderland are top of Fanalysis’ team ratings at 72.6 and are second in xPT overperformance on 10.4, only behind Aston Villa (15.6).
• Wolves are unsurprisingly bottom of the ratings at 55.9 and have underperformed their xPT by a league-worst 14.3.
• Brentford are fifth after overperforming fan expectations massively, though they are pretty much where they were expected to be in terms of xPT.
• Champions Liverpool sit sixth in the Premier League standings but are 18th in the Fanalysis ratings after a deeply inconsistent season.
• Tottenham Hotspur are lower than Burnley and Nottingham Forest with a 57.7 rating.

Sunderland

Having been touted as prime relegation candidates upon securing promotion, Sunderland have emerged as one of the league’s most consistent teams. A solid defensive foundation, a hard-working engine room led by Granit Xhaka (the highest-rated player in the league at 78.2) and clinical attacking play have all contributed to them reaching the 40-point mark with nine games to go.

They have lost two or more games in succession just once — in February against Arsenal, Liverpool and Fulham — while stringing together unbeaten runs of four or more games on three different occasions. Their Fanalysis team rating has not dropped below 67.9 across any five-game stretch and they are still only four points behind seventh-placed Brentford.

Aston Villa

Villa have overperformed expectations for much of the season. Opta’s model has them 13th with 35.4 xPT but they sit fourth with 51 points. Their 39 goals have come from 35.3xG (a measure of the quality of chances created by teams), while their opponents’ xG underperformance of 8.5 leads the league.

An excellent run between September 28 and January 3, when they lost just twice while winning 13 times, saw their team rating jump from 55.6 (third-worst in the league) after their first five matches to 67.8 (sixth-best) by Matchweek 20.

But Villa’s overperformance is catching up to them. They have scored four goals from 7.0xG in their last six matches, while their opponents have racked up nine from 8.9xG, resulting in a run of one win and three defeats.

Wolves

Wolves have alternated between 19th or 20th in team rating for much of 2025-26, having had to wait till January for their first win. That did not immediately spark a run of form but a comeback draw with Arsenal and big wins over Villa and Liverpool in their last four league matches have seen them build some momentum.

Their 61.7 rating in the last 15 matches ranks 16th, a significant improvement on a league-worst rate of 49.9 from the first 15.

Brentford

Having lost Thomas Frank and his entire staff, along with Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and Christian Norgaard, pessimism seemed the dominant sentiment circling Brentford in August. A run of one win in their first five matches did not help matters either, with their team rating of 60.3 ranking 17th at that stage.

But Keith Andrews’ side have stabilised brilliantly since then, relying on small blocks of solid form over the sustained highs and lows experienced by other teams in the league. Brentford have not won three successive matches all season but have won two in a row on four occasions while putting together a six-match unbeaten run in their busiest stretch between December 14 and January 7.

Keith Andrews is happy and so are many Brentford fans (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Tottenham Hotspur

Igor Tudor has overseen three consecutive league defeats, adding to the two Frank suffered before his sacking in February. Spurs have not won a league game since December 28 (1-0 at Palace) and are on the cusp of exiting the Champions League after a 5-2 first-leg defeat at Atletico Madrid in the last 16.

Their fast start to the season, which saw one defeat in seven and convincing wins over Burnley, Manchester City and West Ham United, now seems a distant memory. That early spell of form saw Spurs rank fourth in Fanalysis’ team rating at 71.9, but that has fallen significantly and their 40.2 rating over the last four matches unsurprisingly ranks bottom.

Injuries and discipline have been issues all season for Spurs, as evidenced by their top three players in Fanalysis’ ratings. Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Bergvall are both currently out injured, while Cristian Romero has missed six league games due to suspension and a further two with an injury.

Guglielmo Vicario, who has allowed a league-high 4.4 non-penalty goals more than expected, is the worst-rated goalkeeper in the league (53.7).

Relegation is a growing threat with visits to Liverpool and Sunderland up next, either side of a six-pointer with Nottingham Forest, who beat Spurs 3-0 at the City Ground in December.

Liverpool

Liverpool face the largest disparity in team rating (17th on 63.1) and their position in the table (sixth with 48 points). Considered title contenders given their status as reigning champions and a summer of high expenditure, they have struggled for attacking fluency and defensive consistency all season.

Liverpool’s best spell of form came in the opening weeks of the season when one late winner after another led them to five successive wins. Since then, they have won nine times and picked up 33 points from 24 matches, which would place them eighth in the league across that stretch, behind Everton (36 points) and Brentford (40).

Their team rating peaked at 69.1 after the first five matche,s before dropping to 60.8 by the end of Matchweek 15.

Arsenal

They may be seven points clear at the top of the table (having played one game more), but Fanalysis’ ratings suggest there is plenty of emotional scar tissue among Arsenal fans.

Mikel Arteta’s side have previously lost out on titles due to accumulating too many draws. Arsenal’s average fan rating of 62.1 for a draw is the second-lowest (behind Liverpool’s 61.2), which is somewhat understandable given two of their seven draws have come away to Wolves and Forest.

Their run of two wins, two draws and a defeat between Matchweeks 21 and 25 saw them receive a 62.1 rating, ranking 16th. Even their recent run of three wins and two draws has only seen them rated sixth best at 66.5.

Arsenal have dealt largely well with expectations, but these final eight matches require more of the same under even greater pressure.

Arsenal’s fans and players have been left deflated by draws this season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Manchester City

The criticism around Arsenal has come with Manchester City rounding out into form, receiving a league-best 72.7 rating across the last four matches despite a 2-2 draw with Forest dampening some of the optimism.

City ranked 11th and seventh respectively across the first two five-game blocks of the season. But unlike previous seasons, they have not been able to kick on outside of a six-game winning streak between November 29 and December 27.

Three consecutive draws in the first week of January — along with points dropped at Spurs and at home to Forest — have hurt them too.

Three new signings – Gianluigi Donnarumma, Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki – are their highest-rated players. All three have produced match-altering moments and City will need more of those if they are to overhaul the deficit at the top.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth’s style often results in wild oscillations in form, which can be seen in their team rating too.

Their fast start to the season saw them rank third overall after 10 games but drop to eighth by the end of 20 matches amid a run of no wins, five losses and five draws. Andoni Iraola’s side have recovered their mojo since and have picked up 17 points from their last nine matches, only behind Manchester United (20), City and Arsenal (both 18) in that stretch.

Fanalysis currently rank them sixth on 68.6, with winnable games against Burnley, Leeds, Palace and Forest before the season ends.

Bournemouth’s key concern will be keeping Iraola, whose rating of 73.5 is third among all managers and 4.7 more than the team’s rating, the biggest gap across the league.

Manchester United

Under Ruben Amorim, Manchester United’s 56.6 rating after 21 matches ranked 17th. Michael Carrick’s first four games in charge brought wins over Manchester City, Arsenal, Fulham and Spurs, with their team rating of 72.3 between Matchweeks 21 and 25 ranking first in the league.

Expectations at United are understandably high, though, and the 1-1 draw with West Ham and 2-1 loss to Newcastle have seen them garner a rating of 63.5 over the last four games, only good for 14th.

Bruno Fernandes has impressed since Carrick’s arrival but regularly divided fan opinion under Ruben Amorim. Lisandro Martinez, despite playing just 905 league minutes due to injuries to his anterior cruciate ligament and more recently, his calf, is their best-rated player (71.1). Martinez, United’s only left-footed centre-back, is crucial to their ball progression from the back.

The composed Senne Lammens is second on 70.6.

Crystal Palace

Palace’s season can be divided into two distinct halves.

They lost just three of their first 15 matches, beating Brentford, Liverpool and Villa, while drawing with Chelsea, Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion. The FA Cup holders ranked first, second and second in team rating across the league after five, 10 and 15 matches respectively.

That was followed by a nine-match winless run, along with the confirmation of Marc Guehi’s departure to Manchester City and Oliver Glasner’s exit at the end of the season. Palace’s Fanalysis rating between Matchweek 25 and 30, when they lost twice, drew twice and won once, was 68.3, still good enough for fifth in the league. Their last four games (two wins and two losses) have brought a rating of 65.9 (seventh-best).

Goodwill from last season’s historic success is a possible factor. Palace’s average rating of 72.6 for draws only trails Leeds’ 74.2, while their 63.5 average rating in losses is the highest across the league and 77.3 average rating for wins is the joint-highest with Forest.

Leeds United

Leeds’ season can also be split into distinct halves, albeit in a different way to Palace.

They won just four of their first 15 matches while losing eight times, ranking 13th or lower across each five-game block. The last of those matches — a 3-1 win over Chelsea that saw Daniel Farke switch from a slow build-up system to a more direct one — set up a successful second half of the campaign.

As the graph below shows, Leeds have jostled with the best in the league across the last 14 games (split into two blocks of five and one block of four). Their 76.3 rating between Matchweek 16 and 20, which included draws with Liverpool (twice) and Manchester United and a 4-1 thrashing of Palace, is the highest by a team across a five-match stretch this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been excellent since the change of system, but James Justin’s versatility and consistency have resonated with fans, who have made him their highest-rated player (74.5).

Nottingham Forest

Forest have consistently ranked between 14th and 18th in the Fanalysis ratings during a season that has seen them employ four different managers.

Sean Dyche helped put together their best five-game stretch, picking up three wins, including a 3-0 thrashing of Liverpool, between Matchweek 11 and 15. Their 68.5 rating across those matches ranked seventh in the league.

Forest have had some big scalps, beating Brentford twice, Leeds and Spurs, which might explain their fans giving wins a 77.3 rating on average, tied for highest with Palace. It could, of course, also signify relief.

Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White have built on their 2024-25 exploits to continue delivering in a more volatile environment. But Murillo, who is comfortably their best defender, is the highest-rated Forest player as it stands (70.1).

Chelsea

Chelsea have one of the most demanding fanbases in the league, with their average win rating of 72.9 only lower than those of Liverpool (71.2) and Fulham (71.7). Even their run of four wins and one loss between Matchweeks 21 and 25 earned them a rating of only 66.6, only good for eighth across that stretch. Leeds, who won two and lost two in that timespan, were ranked fourth with a 69.8 rating.

Part of that is down to their fluctuating form. Big wins have often been followed by draws or defeats that deflate momentum. A young, inexperienced squad has made 23 errors leading to a shot or goal, while collecting eight red cards (worst in the league) and 70 yellow cards (third-worst).

Club captain Reece James, the only player left from the pre-Clearlake era, is their highest-rated player at 72.9, with Moises Caicedo (71.4) and the exciting Estevao (69.7) behind him.

Summer arrivals Alejandro Garnacho (64.0) and Liam Delap (59.6), who have scored two combined league goals from 6.6xG, are among their lowest-rated.

Reece James’ excellent season is reflected in his Fanalysis player rating (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Fulham

Fulham, 10th in both the table and in the Fanalysis ratings, are among the most solid but unspectacular sides in the league. Marco Silva’s side can trouble Chelsea, Arsenal, Sunderland and Manchester City but also struggle against Crystal Palace, Everton and West Ham. Across the season, they have remained between eighth and 10th in team rating.

Fulham’s average win rating of 71.7 is the second-lowest in the league but the 12.4-point difference to their average loss rating of 59.3 is the smallest. That hints at an understanding of why they lie where they do in the division’s food chain.

West Ham United

Graham Potter’s five matches in charge saw West Ham receive a rating of 47.1, among the worst for a team across a five-game block this season. They showed progressive improvement from there on until a run of four losses and a draw between Matchweeks 16 and 20 brought them back down.

West Ham have since found some form as the graph below shows, winning four of nine games, with their 68.3 rating across Matchweeks 21 to 25 ranking fifth.

Summer signing Mateus Fernandes, winter arrival Taty Castellanos (both rated 67.2) and the impressive Crysencio Summerville (65.0) have been West Ham’s highest-rated players.

Everton

Everton have moved between 10th and 14th in cumulative team rating across the season, never moving above 67.3.

They have won five and lost four of their last 14 matches after winning seven and losing five of the first 15, staying on course for a top-half finish and maybe a sneaky bid for a European spot. Everton’s rating has dropped by just 0.8 from the season’s first half (65.5) to the second (64.7).

Summer signings Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (six goals, three assists) and Jack Grealish (two goals, six assists) have been a breath of fresh air in their new stadium. Grealish is, of course, now out for the season, but Thierno Barry has scored five times in his last 11 league games after netting once in the previous 18, prompting further optimism.

Newcastle United

Newcastle have one of the largest disparities in rating across different departments in their squad. Their defence is rated eighth by fans but the goalkeeping department is 17th, with both Nick Pope and Aaron Ramsdale failing to impress. Pope’s three errors leading to a goal is the joint-most alongside Villa’s Emiliano Martinez.

Further forward, their midfield, led by Bruno Guimaraes, is rated 11th. But a misfiring frontline, with summer arrivals Nick Woltemade, Yoane Wissa and Anthony Elanga scoring eight league goals between them from 10.0xG, ranks 17th.

The defence has been suspect late in games recently too, with Newcastle’s seven errors leading to a shot or goal after the 80th minute ranking only behind Palace and West Ham (both eight). Newcastle ranked seventh in team rating on 67.6 after 15 games but now sit 14th on 64.8 after winning just five and losing seven of their last 14 matches.

Nick Pope has endured an inconsistent season at Newcastle (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton have won consecutive games just twice all season, with their 10 draws only trailing Bournemouth’s 13. That consistent inconsistency has meant their rating has been largely stable, with just a 0.9 drop from the first 15 games (66.5) compared to the last 14 (65.6).

Fabian Hurzeler has received criticism from fans, particularly during a run of one win in 13 league games between December 3 and February 11. His rating of 61.3 is 15th among the 20 current managers, while Brighton’s home record (24 points from 15 matches, 11th-best in the league) is a cause for concern.

Recent form has brought some optimism, however. Brighton rank third in team rating at 70.0 over the last four games after beating Brentford and Nottingham Forest while falling to narrow 1-0 defeats at Villa and against Arsenal at home.

Burnley

Expectations were low for Burnley after a summer that saw them add quality but limited experience. But their first five matches, which brought a victory against Sunderland, draw with Forest and two one-goal defeats to Manchester United and Liverpool, hinted that they have some fight in them.

After five games, Burnley’s 68.5 rating ranked seventh in the league. After 15, they were on 65.7, good enough for 11th.

They have struggled since, winning one of their last 14 matches. Eight of their 18 defeats have been by a solitary goal, with some heartbreaking losses such as the 4-3 home reverse to Brentford when they came back from 3-0 down.