Lightweights
BETTING ODDS: Al-Selwady (-125); Rock (+105)
“Shem Rock” (11-2-1; 0-1 UFC) welcomes Al-Selwady (15-4; 0-1 UFC)
back to the cage from a two-year absence in a battle of
lightweights looking for their first UFC win. Rock came up short in
his debut against Nurullo
Aliev in November, but Aliev is an undefeated prospect and a
likely future contender, not to mention a miserable style matchup.
The basic scouting report on Rock remains the same: a lanky,
long-limbed grappler with surprisingly solid, composed striking.
The intangibles that might not affect his chances of winning, but
certainly affect how many chances he gets, include a big
personality that could position him to be the next Paddy
Pimblett or Michael
Bisping if he can stick around long enough to get some time on
the mic. As a fighter, much like Pimblett, Rock is most successful
when he can keep things on the outside until he chooses to close
the distance and bring the fight to the floor. And a bit like
Pimblett, when he either chooses a phone-booth slugfest or has it
forced upon him, the results are exciting to watch but don’t always
work out in his favor.
Al-Selwady is coming back from a loss followed by a long layoff,
but he is still just 30 years old and, despite being stopped by
Loik
Radzhabov in his last outing, is an intriguing talent in his
own right. He is a compact, powerful athlete who doesn’t hunt for
the big shot, preferring instead to push the pace on his opponents
and bury them under an avalanche of offense, whether on the feet or
with his wrestling. In this, he is served by his cardio, good
lateral movement and natural power—his punches and kicks are
stinging without his having to load up or overswing. Even his
recent loss, which ended up with a nasty highlight for Radzhabov’s
reel, was a solid performance, for Al-Selwady and appeared to be
anyone’s fight until Al-Selwady got clocked by a huge shot early in
the third round.
It’s never easy or fun to scout a fight featuring someone who’s
been on the shelf for two years. It would already be worth
wondering whether Al-Selwady’s knockout loss was a one-off thing or
an indication of a serious flaw, but now we must also speculate on
whether Al-Selwady’s game, which has always run on pace and speed,
will be affected by his injuries. If this fight were three months
from the Radzhabov fight, with no injury layoff in between, it
would be an easy pick, as Al-Selwady is exactly the kind of quicker
striker and better technical wrestler who will always be a tough
challenge for Rock. However, I’m going with the slight upset. Rock
was surprisingly competitive against Aliev despite the miserable
style matchup, and the pick here is for the Brit to win a nip-tuck
decision, probably by defending a few takedowns, then scoring one
or two of his own, to punctuate a fun back-and-forth striking
battle on the feet.
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Jones vs. Sola
Wood vs. Keita
Sutherland vs. Pericic
Kondratavicius vs. Trocoli
Pinto vs. Franco
Rock vs. Al-Selwady
Dyer vs. Oliveira
Mullins vs. Carolina
