For the second consecutive year, there were no teams seeded from #13-#16 to advance past the first round.
PublishedMarch 21, 2026 8:40 PM EDT•UpdatedMarch 21, 2026 8:40 PM EDT
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March Madness is in full swing, with the round of 32 officially underway on Saturday.
Anecdotally, it felt like the first round, with a few exceptions, did not have the quantity or “quality” of upsets that we’ve become accustomed to over the years. Yes, High Point had the biggest win of the NCAA tournament over the heavily favored Wisconsin Badgers. VCU also pulled the upset over North Carolina.
Two other double-digit seeds won their games, the Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies as #11 and #10 seeds, respectively. Though counting Texas and Texas A&M, two of the richest athletic departments in college sports, as underdogs, feels a bit unfair. The #1 seeded Duke Blue Devils also struggled, for quite some time, with Siena, before pulling away late in the game.
But with the first round over, it feels like there are fewer “Cinderella” teams than we’re used to seeing. Is that feeling accurate though? Some social media users put together the data, with surprising results.
The Duke Blue Devils are the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)
March Madness Has Fewest Big Upsets In Years
One X account found that, for the second consecutive year, there were no teams seeded from #13-#16 to advance past the first round. Even just a few years ago, there were three teams that were able to advance, including #16 seeded Farleigh Dickinson. In 2021, there were four teams in that range to get to the second round.
Nick Bateman on X pointed out that with just four double-digit seeds advancing, it was the lowest total since 2007. He found that there were five total in 2025, 2023, 2017 and 2015, six total in 2018, 2011, and 2008. Seven total in 2022 and 2014. Eight total in 2024, 2019, 2013, 2010, and 2009. Nine in 2012, and a whopping 10 in 2016.
So, the short answer is yes, the feeling is accurate, there are fewer big upsets than there used to be. This is still a small sample size, so it remains to be seen whether this is a trend or an aberration. But it’s notable that in the NIL, transfer portal era of college basketball, there’s been a clear decline in big upsets.
And it makes sense. Players who succeed at mid-major teams hit the portal in search of better deals from bigger programs. NIL has made it so that richer teams can offer more to top recruits. Fewer big upsets is the inevitable result. Thankfully, though, as the first round showed, it’s still not zero.
